--- title: "Will Robotaxi save Tesla as the fleet size may reach one million by 2035 while car sales are declining?" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269877622.md" description: "Morgan Stanley predicts that by the end of 2035, Tesla will have 1 million Robotaxis on the road in multiple cities. Tesla plans to significantly expand its Robotaxi fleet size in 2026, expecting it to grow to 1,000 vehicles. Tesla has recently made progress in removing safety supervisors and has launched autonomous Robotaxi road testing in Austin. Musk stated that Robotaxi will bring huge profits to Tesla and is a \"trillion-dollar opportunity.\"" datetime: "2025-12-16T14:08:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269877622.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269877622.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269877622.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269877622.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269877622.md) # Will Robotaxi save Tesla as the fleet size may reach one million by 2035 while car sales are declining? According to Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley expects that Tesla (TSLA.US) will significantly expand its Robotaxi fleet by 2026. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco and his team predict that the number of Tesla Robotaxis operating on the road will increase to 1,000 by 2026, far exceeding the current approximately 50 to 150 vehicles. The firm also forecasts that by the end of 2035, Tesla will have 1 million Robotaxis on the road in multiple cities. Although Tesla has generally taken a cautious approach in promoting its Robotaxi business in Austin and San Francisco, the company has recently made progress in removing safety supervisors. Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed last Sunday that the company has launched driverless Robotaxi road tests in Austin, Texas, with no occupants in the test vehicles. It is worth mentioning that Musk confirmed last week that "safety supervisors will be removed from the vehicles within the next three weeks." Since the official launch of the Robotaxi fleet in June this year, Tesla has been committed to achieving fully driverless passenger services by the end of the year. This progress is significant for the Robotaxi project, indicating that the company's efforts are gradually yielding results. Tesla has been fully committed to expanding its Robotaxi fleet to meet the enormous market demand faced by the platform. Musk previously stated on social media that the Tesla Robotaxi service will charge a fixed fee of $4.20. He emphasized that the company is "particularly cautious" about safety, and Tesla will have a professional team for remote monitoring interventions to ensure the safety of the trial operation. Musk stated that Robotaxi is not just a service but the "ultimate form of personal transportation," making travel safer, more efficient, and cheaper. Robotaxi will bring enormous profits to Tesla and represents a "trillion-dollar opportunity." Musk also mentioned that the Robotaxi fleet could achieve high utilization rates (over 40 hours of operation per vehicle per week), with gross margins potentially reaching 70% to 80%, far exceeding traditional automotive businesses. Musk claimed that Tesla's goal is to make driverless vehicles ten times safer than human drivers. He noted that the safety supervisor configuration in the Austin pilot is merely a transitional measure, with the ultimate goal of achieving fully driverless operation. To assess whether Tesla's Robotaxi project is on track, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco listed three key catalysts: (1) Opening Robotaxi services to the public without safety supervisors. The timeline is still unclear, but Tesla seems to be getting closer to achieving this goal. (2) Improvement in safety metrics without safety supervisors. As Tesla expands its business in new states and cities by 2026, the ability to improve safety metrics while increasing mileage without safety supervisors is crucial. (3) Production of the Cybercab starting in April 2026. The Tesla Cybercab is a dedicated custom vehicle (without a steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) expected to be produced through its advanced integrated unboxing manufacturing process, which will further reduce costs and accelerate promotion over time. It is reported that Morgan Stanley has a "hold" rating on Tesla's stock, with a target price of $425 ## The Basic Sales of Cars Remain Stuck in the Mire Tesla has made further progress in advancing its Robotaxi business, while Musk has focused most of his energy this year on the company's robotics business layout and pushing shareholders to approve its newly proposed trillion-dollar compensation plan. However, at the same time, the outlook for Tesla's main business—car sales—is becoming increasingly bleak. The electric vehicle manufacturer is facing sales pressure in several major markets. In November, Tesla's sales in major European markets further deteriorated, and even with strong growth in electric vehicle demand in multiple countries, it failed to prevent the company led by Musk from continuing to lose market share in Europe. According to data from the French Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla's new car sales in France plummeted 58% in November, just below 1,600 units. In Denmark, Tesla's sales fell by 49%; in Sweden, it dropped by 59%, showing weakness for several consecutive quarters. Despite the continuous increase in electric vehicle penetration rates in major European markets, Tesla has failed to benefit in tandem. In France, the electric vehicle market share surged by 9 percentage points to 26% in November, but Tesla's sales fell against the trend. In Spain, Tesla's registration volume decreased by 8.7% in November. In Germany, the largest car market in Europe, pure electric vehicle registrations surged by 39% in the first ten months of this year, but Tesla's sales during the same period plummeted by 50%, far behind its competitors. However, amidst the downward trend across Europe, Norway has become a rare exception. Tesla's registrations in Norway skyrocketed by 175% in November, partly due to uncertainty regarding future electric vehicle tax incentives, prompting consumers to purchase cars in advance. Analysts point out that the reasons for Tesla's weak registration numbers include an aging product line, extended new model update cycles, and political earthquakes triggered by CEO Musk, such as his public support for the far-right German party AfD and his activities during the Trump administration. These factors have weakened some European consumers' favorability towards the brand. Meanwhile, Tesla's ongoing confrontation with European regulators over the safety and marketing issues of its driver assistance system "Full Self-Driving (FSD)" has further impacted its market performance. In Tesla's home market, sales performance is equally dismal. According to the latest estimates released by Cox Automotive, Tesla sold only about 39,800 vehicles in the U.S. market in November. This figure represents a decline of about 23% compared to the 51,513 deliveries in November 2024, reportedly marking Tesla's lowest monthly sales in the U.S. market since January 2022. It should be noted that Tesla does not disclose monthly sales data, and the above figures are estimates based on data collected by Cox Automotive. Although Tesla has attempted to mitigate the impact by increasing discounts, the market has still experienced a significant adjustment due to the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit policy. Since the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit policy at the end of September, the U.S. electric vehicle market has fallen into a certain degree of chaos. The market had previously anticipated a cooling-off period after the Q3 buying spree, but the sales data in November still appeared bleak. After the cancellation of the $7,500 federal tax credit, Tesla launched new "standard version" models of the Model 3 and Model Y in October, priced about $5,000 lower than the previous base models, to compensate for the loss caused by the cancellation of the tax credit These new models are expected to make a more significant contribution to sales starting next year. However, Cox Automotive believes that the impact of this strategy may be limited. The company's Director of Industry Insights, Stephanie Valdes Streeter, pointed out, "The decline in sales clearly indicates that there is insufficient demand for the standard model, which was supposed to boost sales after the tax credit expiration. Furthermore, the sales of the standard model are eating into the sales of the high-end versions, especially the high-end version of the Model 3." It is worth mentioning that although Tesla's U.S. sales in November fell 23% year-on-year, which is somewhat striking, Tesla's resilience is actually better than that of other electric vehicle companies. Reports indicate that overall electric vehicle sales in the U.S. plummeted over 41% in November. Since Tesla's decline is smaller than that of its competitors, its market share has increased from 43.1% in the same period last year to 56.7%. Most other automakers heavily rely on tax credit policies to clear electric vehicle inventory, and after losing this policy support, their demand has declined much faster than Tesla's. The Chinese market is one of the few bright spots. According to preliminary data released by the China Passenger Car Association earlier this month, Tesla's Shanghai factory sold 86,700 vehicles in November, a 10% increase compared to the same period last year. Against the backdrop of a general decline in Tesla's global sales, the shipment volume from its Chinese factory has achieved growth for the third time this year. This is the company's second-highest shipment volume this year, second only to the wholesale volume in September. This growth has become a rare highlight for Tesla in the Chinese market this year, as the company is currently facing a situation where global sales are expected to decline for the second consecutive year ### 相关股票 - [Tesla (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF (TSLQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [XI2CSOPTSLA-U (09366.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/09366.HK.md) - [XL2CSOPTSLA (07766.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/07766.HK.md) - [XI2CSOPTSLA (07366.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/07366.HK.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLR.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Gary Black Says Exiting Tesla Position Last Year Was The 'Right Call' Amid Q1 Delivery Miss: Took A Lot Of 'Grief' From The Bulls](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281605367.md) - [Tesla first-quarter deliveries are coming. 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