--- title: "Guolian Minsheng Securities: November US CPI exceeded expectations, re-evaluating the interest rate cut path?" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270238861.md" description: "Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report indicating that the U.S. November CPI exceeded expectations, with core inflation weakening. Although the quality of the data is questionable, the market reacted optimistically, with the dollar declining and both stocks and bonds rising. If the December data continues to show slow growth, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its interest rate cut path" datetime: "2025-12-19T02:13:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270238861.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270238861.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270238861.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270238861.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270238861.md) # Guolian Minsheng Securities: November US CPI exceeded expectations, re-evaluating the interest rate cut path? According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the U.S. inflation data for November provided a "surprise" to the market. Structurally, energy and food inflation remain the main forces supporting the overall CPI, while core inflation shows a clear weakening trend. For the Federal Reserve, although the November CPI is unlikely to change the decision to pause interest rate cuts in January next year, it will undoubtedly increase the dovish voices within the Fed. If the December data continues the current slow upward trend, it may prompt the Fed to reassess the interest rate cut path for next year, but everything will have to wait until the release of the "clean" data in December to draw a conclusion. ## The main points of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows: **As the last major data release in the U.S. this year, the November inflation undoubtedly provided a "surprise" to the market.** The CPI and core CPI fell significantly year-on-year to 2.7% and 2.6%, which not only was far below the market's previous average expectation of 3%, but core inflation even dropped to its lowest level since early 2021 at one point. In response to this sudden "good news," the asset side also showed optimistic pricing, with the dollar dipping in the short term, and both stocks and bonds rising, with the Nasdaq up more than 1 percentage point, while precious metals showed some profit-taking characteristics after a surge. **However, upon closer examination, the November inflation data has obvious statistical "noise."** On one hand, the government shutdown severely affected the Department of Labor's data collection efforts, leading to missing month-on-month inflation data for October and November, resulting in limited effective information available for market interpretation; on the other hand, given that the U.S. government only resumed normal operations in mid-November, the statistical period for the November price survey could only cover the latter part of the month, coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday promotional season, where seasonal fluctuations in prices may lead to a certain degree of distortion in the statistical results. **For the market, although there are quality issues with the data, this incomplete report at least provides a glimmer of hope, alleviating concerns about short-term inflation rising.** Given that the current space for the Fed to cut rates is gradually narrowing, only a significant improvement or deterioration in economic data beyond expectations could have a noticeable impact on the market. **Good news (the Goldilocks scenario) and bad news (the Fed PUT needing to be exercised) are both considered good news, while only news that is neither good enough nor bad enough does not count. What the November non-farm payrolls did not fully achieve, this inflation report has successfully taken a key "first step."** **For the Federal Reserve, although the November CPI is unlikely to change the decision to pause interest rate cuts in January next year, it will undoubtedly increase the dovish voices within the Fed.** If the December data continues the current slow upward trend, it may prompt the Fed to reassess the interest rate cut path for next year, as the combination of "economic slowdown + low inflation" will help the Fed make more rate cut decisions than the median in the December dot plot (only one rate cut in 2026) However, everything will have to wait until the release of this "clean" data in December before a conclusion can be drawn. **From a structural perspective, energy and food inflation remain the main forces supporting the overall CPI, while core inflation shows a significant weakening trend:** **The year-on-year growth rate of food and energy inflation remains high, consistent with high-frequency data.** In November, the year-on-year increase in U.S. gasoline retail prices further expanded, while the global food price growth monitored by international grain and oil organizations also rebounded compared to September, with these two components jointly contributing to upward pressure on overall inflation. **However, core inflation has significantly weakened, with the core services component leading the decline:** **On one hand, under the influence of tariffs, the resilience of goods inflation is stronger.** In November, core goods inflation only slightly decreased to 1.4% year-on-year, mainly affected by the decline in automobile inflation, which may be related to the expiration of previous federal electric vehicle tax incentives and a temporary drop in automobile sales. Meanwhile, **categories with high reliance on imports, such as clothing, furniture, and leisure goods, still maintain relatively high year-on-year price growth, indicating that the cost transmission effect of tariffs on related categories has not yet dissipated.** **On the other hand, core services inflation is the dominant factor in the overall decline of core inflation this period.** Specifically, housing inflation fell sharply from the previous value of 3.6% to 3.0% year-on-year, **with the high-interest-rate environment continuing to suppress demand in the housing market,** greatly offsetting the price increase pressure on the goods side; at the same time, super core inflation continues to decline, with the year-on-year growth rate falling from the previous value of 3.2% to 2.7%, **with the price declines in subcategories such as transportation services (especially airfare) and leisure services being particularly prominent.** **Risk Warning:** Significant changes in U.S. economic and trade policies; unexpected tariff expansions leading to greater-than-expected global economic slowdown and increased market adjustments ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Trump weighs broader cabinet shake-up as Iran war pressure grows](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281681817.md) - [Omeros Turns Corner With Novo Deal, YARTEMLEA Launch](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281666535.md) - [Kepler Capital Sticks to Its Buy Rating for Banco Comercial Portugues (0RJN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281671078.md) - [ARYZTA AG (0MFY) was upgraded to a Hold Rating at Kepler Capital](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281671830.md) - [How to interpret the wild swings in the jobs numbers](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281681321.md)