--- title: "Does autonomous driving want to \"kill\" Uber? The capital market may have misjudged" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270276494.md" description: "Bernstein analysts believe that the market is overreacting to the impact of autonomous driving on Uber. Despite the rise in stock price, the valuation remains low. Analyst Devaney expects a 44% upside for Uber's stock price, with a target price of $115. The progress of Tesla and Waymo may affect the valuation of ride-hailing companies" datetime: "2025-12-19T08:43:34.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270276494.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270276494.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270276494.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270276494.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270276494.md) # Does autonomous driving want to "kill" Uber? The capital market may have misjudged As investors worry that autonomous vehicles will severely threaten Uber's (UBER.N) market opportunities, its stock price has fallen to near historical lows. According to Bernstein analysts, the company's stock is trading at about 15.5 times its estimated enterprise value to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). This low level has only been approached a few times in the past, including when market concerns about autonomous driving peaked a year ago. The analyst team led by Nikhil Devnani believes that the market's reaction is overly harsh, and given Uber's strong fundamentals, the stock is "undervalued." However, Devnani wrote: > “**Short views are hard to overturn overnight**.” “Considering that EBITDA is expected to grow 34% this year, $80 is the new $60,” Devnani stated. In other words, while the stock price has significantly risen from about $60 a year ago, **its valuation multiple is also at a low level**, as another part of the valuation ratio, the earnings trend, is also improving. "That said, we do think this situation is a bit different, although saying so might be a bit of a stretch," Devnani added, citing Tesla (TSLA.O) as the "wild card." Uber's current stock price is about $80 per share. **Devnani has set a target price of $115**, which implies a 44% upside, and has rated its stock as outperform. While other participants in the U.S. autonomous driving industry have been relatively slow to scale, Tesla has committed to rapid expansion since its first market debut about six months ago. Bernstein noted that **if Tesla makes significant progress, it could put pressure on the valuation multiples of ride-hailing companies.** Recent advancements by Waymo, supported by Alphabet (GOOGL.O), may also have some impact. Waymo is the only company in the U.S. operating a commercial autonomous taxi service without safety drivers, **aiming to provide over 1 million fully autonomous rides per week by the end of next year**. Similarly, Zoox, backed by Amazon (AMZN.O), has just announced that its custom robotaxi has completed its first 1 million miles of driving. According to Bernstein, **the most important question is how fragmented the market will become.** For example, if autonomous driving companies like Waymo choose to license their technology externally, the market could become more fragmented, which would be beneficial for aggregation platforms like Uber or Lyft. Conversely, **if the market becomes more concentrated, dominated by only a few giants like Waymo and Tesla, it could harm Uber's potential market opportunities.** Bernstein believes this is also part of the reason why Uber feels "uneasy" about relying on partners in its autonomous driving transformation. The company has partnered with at least 21 companies to add autonomous passenger cars, trucks, and delivery robots to its services globally These partners include a number of private companies, such as the autonomous trucking company Waabi, as well as publicly traded companies like Stellantis (STLA.N) and NVIDIA (NVDA.O). Uber is also collaborating directly with Waymo, whose robotaxi service is exclusively offered through the Uber app in two cities. Uber's latest initiatives include launching robotaxis in Dubai in partnership with WeRide and providing autonomous ride-hailing services with safety drivers in Dallas through a collaboration with Avride. The ride-hailing service provider expects to operate autonomous vehicles in at least 10 cities by the end of this year. Uber's Chief Financial Officer Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah defended the company's approach, stating at a UBS conference on December 3 that **its strategy will help suppliers achieve value for money by ensuring that autonomous vehicles are "never empty."** He added that this also helps ensure a "seamless" experience for consumers and provides options. "Ultimately, passengers will have the choice to ride in autonomous taxis from Waymo, Nuro, WeRide, or Baidu," Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told Stratechery earlier this year, "I do believe that the aggregation model will undoubtedly help all of these companies succeed." According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, **by 2032, Uber is expected to account for 22% of all autonomous taxi rides in the U.S., trailing behind Tesla and Waymo.** About one-fifth of Uber's projected autonomous rides are expected to be achieved through its partnership with Waymo. By then, human-driven rides will still far exceed autonomous taxis. Morgan Stanley has given Uber stock an overweight rating, although in a report on December 7, the firm lowered its target price from $115 to $110, reducing the target valuation multiple by about 11% ### 相关股票 - [Tesla (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [Uber Tech (UBER.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UBER.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Uber’s Dubai Robotaxis Test Partner Model And Margin Potential](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281254090.md) - [Uber increases stake in WeRide as robotaxi partnership ramps up in Dubai](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281219301.md) - [Nvidia, Uber, Waymo — The AV Stack Is Being Rebuilt Without Tesla](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281071764.md) - [Americans Are Warming Up to Robotaxis -- and That's Big News for Alphabet and Tesla](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281327185.md) - [Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi Hopes To Incorporate Tesla Robotaxis On Its Platform: 'It's A Great Car…'](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281491777.md)