--- title: "《大行》招银国际料明年国内居民房产价值缩水 消费降级延续" description: "招银国际研究报告预测，2026 年国内居民消费将受到资产缩水和收入预期修复缓慢的影响，导致消费降级。报告建议关注在全球化布局有进展的企业，以对冲内需波动风险。选股方面，推荐关注农夫山泉、华润饮料、巨子生物及颖通控股等公司。" type: "news" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270439550.md" published_at: "2025-12-22T03:47:15.000Z" --- # 《大行》招银国际料明年国内居民房产价值缩水 消费降级延续 > 招银国际研究报告预测，2026 年国内居民消费将受到资产缩水和收入预期修复缓慢的影响，导致消费降级。报告建议关注在全球化布局有进展的企业，以对冲内需波动风险。选股方面，推荐关注农夫山泉、华润饮料、巨子生物及颖通控股等公司。 招银国际研究报告指，预期 2026 年国内居民消费核心为「资产缩水 + 收入预期修复缓慢」。资产方面，一线次新房集中入市，银行房地产相关的资产批量处置或推动二手房价探底，居民房产价值缩水，将抑制消费意愿。需求方面，外贸不确定性拖累就业收入，消费「降级」延续，支出倾向刚性需求及低成本情绪慰藉。 该行认为，在国内消费环境不确定性延续的背景下，全球化布局有显着进展的企业，可通过海外市场拓展对冲内需波动风险。 选股方面，在食品饮品板块中，该行建议关注受惠於果汁及功能饮品等类别的农夫山泉 (09633.HK)，以及包装水市场份额跌幅收窄且估值处於低位的华润饮料 (02460.HK)。在美容护肤板块中，该行建议关注估值较有吸引力的巨子生物 (02367.HK) 及颖通控股 (06883.HK)。 ### Related Stocks - [02367.HK - 巨子生物](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02367.HK.md) - [06883.HK - 颖通控股](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/06883.HK.md) - [09633.HK - 农夫山泉](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/09633.HK.md) - [02460.HK - 华润饮料](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02460.HK.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H (9633) Receives a Buy from Guotai Haitong | Guotai Haitong analyst maintained a Buy rating on Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H yesterday and set a price target of HK | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270573168.md) | | I Want Real Estate Income Without Being a Landlord. What Are My Options? | Arrived offers a way for investors to earn real estate income without being landlords by allowing fractional shares of r | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275471640.md) | | State firms in China buy foreclosed properties to slow downturn | Chinese state-owned companies are purchasing foreclosed properties to address the oversupply in the housing sector, whic | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275840327.md) | | Huttons Asia, property agent, law firm sued over 99-1 deal for condo bought by foreigner and student | Huttons Asia and other real estate agencies are facing lawsuits over "99-1" property sale arrangements aimed at avoiding | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275945674.md) | | 'We have no prenup': I want rights of survivorship in our marital home. My wife prefers tenants in common. Now what? | A man, after two marriages, is concerned about the implications of a tenants-in-common agreement on his current home wit | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275786555.md) | --- > **免责声明**：本文内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。