--- title: "华尔街普遍看好 2026 年美股前景 这或许是个隐忧" description: "华尔街预测 2026 年美股将上涨约 11%，但市场观察者担忧预测过于集中。奥本海默预测标普 500 指数最高达 8100 点，Stifel Nicolaus & Co.预测最低为 7000 点，差距仅 16%。一致观点被视为反向信号，市场风险显现，通胀高于目标，失业率上升，AI 支出未见收益。" type: "news" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270485558.md" published_at: "2025-12-22T11:41:54.000Z" --- # 华尔街普遍看好 2026 年美股前景 这或许是个隐忧 > 华尔街预测 2026 年美股将上涨约 11%，但市场观察者担忧预测过于集中。奥本海默预测标普 500 指数最高达 8100 点，Stifel Nicolaus & Co.预测最低为 7000 点，差距仅 16%。一致观点被视为反向信号，市场风险显现，通胀高于目标，失业率上升，AI 支出未见收益。 华尔街股市预测者向来以看涨著称，但他们对 2026 年的当前预期水平却令部分市场观察者忧心忡忡。数据显示，各大机构卖方策略师对标普 500 指数的年终目标值呈现近十年最集中的分布态势。其中奥本海默预测最高达 8100 点，Stifel Nicolaus & Co.预测最低为 7000 点，年度预期值的差距仅为 16%。如此一致的观点通常被视为反向信号 —— 当所有人倾向同一方向时，失衡往往会自我修正。而当前市场风险已然显现。通胀率持续高于美联储目标，令市场对货币政策宽松的预期面临落空风险。失业率近月稳步攀升，而巨额人工智能支出尚未转化为实际收益。尽管如此，策略师们仍平均预期 2026 年美股将上涨约 11%，即便此前已连续三年实现两位数回报。（彭博） ### Related Stocks - [SPY.US - 标普 500 ETF - SPDR](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPY.US.md) - [.SPX.US - 标普 500 指数](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | A Look Into S&P Global Inc's Price Over Earnings | S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) is currently priced at $409.70, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04%. However, the stock ha | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276067419.md) | | LIVE MARKETS-A new era for industrials? | Main US indexes are gaining, with the S&P 500 up ~0.5%. Utilities lead sector gains while the dollar declines. Bank of A | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275934016.md) | | Why S&P Global stock tumbled by nearly 10% on Tuesday | Investors were expecting a better final quarter of 2025 from the famous financial index operator and information service | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275527607.md) | | Wall St Week Ahead-Walmart, economic data await investors confronting AI 'whack-a-mole' | U.S. stock investors are bracing for volatility due to AI disruption fears, with Walmart's earnings and key economic dat | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275888654.md) | | Trump Declares 'Largest Tax Refund Season Ever' In 2026: 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Secures Everything Needed Until 2030 | President Trump predicts 2026 will see the largest tax refund season ever, attributing this to the "One Big Beautiful Bi | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275579426.md) | --- > **免责声明**：本文内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。