---
title: "CITIC Securities: The macro asset environment in 2026 may show characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery. Recommended commodities > stocks > bonds"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270807484.md"
description: "CITIC Securities expects that by 2026, the macro asset environment will show characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities > stocks > bonds. Hong Kong stocks are expected to welcome a performance bottom rebound and a second round of valuation repair, leading to a \"Davis Double Play\" market. U.S. stocks will continue to maintain fundamental growth momentum in the midterm election year. In terms of bonds, the 10-year China government bond yield is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.5%-1.8%, while U.S. Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate in the range of 3.9%-4.3%. In terms of commodities, the supply-demand pattern of crude oil is shifting towards balance, and prices for gold and copper are expected to rise. The Renminbi may enter a period of moderate appreciation"
datetime: "2025-12-26T00:46:03.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270807484.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270807484.md)
---

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# CITIC Securities: The macro asset environment in 2026 may show characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery. Recommended commodities > stocks > bonds

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities has released a research report stating that the macro asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery. We recommend commodities \> stocks \> bonds. In terms of equities, it is expected that the annual increase of the Wind All A Index will be 5%-10% in 2026; Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a performance bottom rebound and a second round of valuation repair, leading to a "Davis Double-Play" market; U.S. stocks are likely to maintain fundamental growth momentum under the backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" dual easing in a mid-term election year.

In terms of bonds, CITIC Securities expects the 10-year China bond yield to operate within a range of 1.5%-1.8% for the whole year, with a downward then upward rhythm; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may fluctuate within a range of 3.9%-4.3%. In terms of commodities, the supply-demand pattern of crude oil is shifting from surplus to balance, with Brent crude oil expected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel for the whole year; gold is expected to continue its strength under the support of liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, but the increase may slow down, with a potential to challenge $5,000 per ounce; copper is expected to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price likely to rise to $12,000 per ton. In terms of exchange rates, the Renminbi may enter a mild appreciation cycle, with the USD/CNY exchange rate center expected to gradually approach 6.8.

**CITIC Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:**

**A-shares: Expected Wind All A Index increase of 5%-10%.**

In terms of listed company profits, the net profit of listed companies is expected to continue improving throughout 2026, with an annual growth rate of 4.8%. As the CPI and PPI warm up in 2026, the price factors suppressing listed company profits may gradually ease quarter by quarter. With domestic demand policies gradually intensifying and taking effect, the ROE of domestic demand-related varieties is expected to stabilize and rebound, and varieties with over 20% of overseas revenue are likely to continue their upward trend; in terms of valuation, the rotation of structural opportunities may become the norm in the market, while the index level is expected to show a "low volatility slow bull" market, with absolute return-type funds represented by insurance capital, "fixed income +" products, and private equity likely to be the main source of incremental funds.

In terms of industries, it is recommended to focus on three major clues: resource/traditional manufacturing industry quality upgrades, Chinese enterprises going global and globalization, and AI further broadening commercial applications. In addition, although domestic demand exposure varieties may not be as prosperous as external demand varieties, if there is an unexpected recovery, the valuation elasticity is considerable; in an optimistic scenario, under unexpected policy stimulus, a large domestic demand market may experience systematic fundamental clue changes, driving an increase in overall market risk appetite, with valuations potentially expanding by an additional 10%. Under a cautious assumption, the overall valuation uplift space of the index is limited, and the overall market risk appetite and trading enthusiasm are weakening, but under the background of continuous inflow of funds such as insurance capital and the "national team" supporting the market, the probability of a significant drop is low.

**Hong Kong stocks: Expected to welcome a performance bottom rebound and a second round of valuation repair, leading to a Davis Double-Play market.**

Under the catalyst of DeepSeek, Hong Kong stocks welcomed the first round of valuation repair in 2025. However, Hong Kong stocks are still a valuation pit among major global markets, with the dynamic PE of the Hang Seng Index at only 11.3 times, while the ERP is as high as 5.5%. In terms of performance, CITIC Securities estimates that the 2026E net profit of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology is expected to grow by 6.7% and 24.3% year-on-year, respectively. Considering that the U.S. is likely to implement "fiscal + monetary" dual easing in a mid-term election year, and Japan and Germany are also expected to increase fiscal spending, while China may also see policy intensification at the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan", The global macro environment will be favorable for the performance of Hong Kong stocks. Coupled with the implementation of domestic "anti-involution" policies and the advancement of AI commercialization, improvements at the macro level will also be reflected in the performance of Hong Kong-listed companies.

In terms of liquidity, the China-U.S. relationship may see marginal easing by 2026, leading to a return of actively managed foreign capital. Domestic individual investors and pension funds are also expected to continue increasing their allocation to Hong Kong stocks through ETF products. Combining policy catalysts, improvements in fundamentals, and sustained capital inflows, CITIC Securities predicts that Hong Kong stocks will welcome a second round of valuation recovery in 2026, with the dynamic PE of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology expected to expand by 5% and 10%, respectively. The overall rhythm for 2026 is expected to be stable at first and then rise: looking at the Two Sessions policies at the beginning of the year, observing the progress of China-U.S. relations and foreign capital return in the middle of the year, and checking performance realization at the end of the year. It is recommended to focus on cloud computing/AI applications, CXO, precious metals with strong industrial attributes, paper-making, and aviation sectors.

**U.S. Stocks: Midterm election year "fiscal + monetary" dual easing, fundamental growth momentum continues.**

From a macro policy perspective, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates in 2026, and even restart QE to alleviate upward pressure on long-term rates, while OBBBA will release fiscal expansion effects in 2026, supporting U.S. residents' consumption and employment. At the same time, the privatization of "two houses" is expected to bring about $240 billion in non-tax fiscal revenue, easing deficit pressure.

From a fundamental perspective, the net profit growth rates of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MAG 8 are expected to rise to 15.6%, 20.0%, and 24.5% respectively in 2026, providing upward momentum for U.S. stocks. Additionally, based on the currently healthy balance sheet levels and operating cash flows of U.S. hyperscalers, the likelihood of an AI bubble bursting in 2026 is low. However, the valuations of major U.S. stock indices are currently at historically high percentiles, making the probability of continued valuation expansion next year relatively low.

In terms of market liquidity, interest rate cuts and tax reductions are expected to drive increased stock buybacks by listed companies, and the $7.7 trillion in money market funds is also expected to become an important source of incremental funds for U.S. stocks. It is anticipated that U.S. stocks will show a gradual upward trend next year, but caution is needed in the first half of the year, as Powell, in his final period at the helm of the Federal Reserve, may ignore potential risks to the real economy and financial system for the sake of so-called "central bank independence," which could disrupt U.S. stocks temporarily. It is recommended to focus on technology, steel, aluminum, copper, and energy infrastructure (especially nuclear power), military industry, and internet diagnostics.

**China Bonds: The 10-year government bond yield is expected to range between 1.5%-1.8% in 2026, with a rhythm that may show a decline followed by an increase.**

Compared to the 2025 range of 1.6%-1.9% for China's 10-year government bond yield, it is judged that the yield center may shift down by 10bps in 2026, while maintaining a fluctuation space of around 30bps.

On one hand, the Central Economic Work Conference continues to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy tone, and it is expected that policy rates still have about 10bps of room for reduction. Combining the central bank's proposal in the 2025 third-quarter monetary policy report to maintain a reasonable interest rate comparison relationship, it is judged that the downward shift of the 10-year government bond yield center in 2026 will be roughly consistent with the adjustment magnitude of policy rates On the other hand, interest rate bonds will maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" pattern, with expected fluctuations comparable to those in 2025. Changes in central bank treasury operations, the stock-bond seesaw effect, and significant regulatory uncertainties in 2025 have amplified interest rate volatility. Looking ahead to 2026, although the policy tone continues to be accommodative, there are still divergences regarding the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, and the disturbing factors have not completely dissipated. It is expected that the 10-year government bond yield will remain within a fluctuation range of about 30bps.

From an operational rhythm perspective, interest rates may exhibit a "two-stage" characteristic: from the beginning of the year to the first half of the year, the preemptive implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions is expected to drive interest rates down; after mid-year, as inflation rebounds to support nominal growth, and as local government bonds gradually wind down and credit expansion conditions improve, there will be phased upward pressure on interest rates.

**U.S. Treasuries: It is expected that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will operate within a range of 3.9%-4.3% throughout 2026.**

In the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. GDP growth may slow significantly. Next year, the U.S. economy is expected to gradually warm up against the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with an expected real GDP growth of 1.9% for the entire year. With further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the stimulating effect of the "Big and Beautiful" bill on consumption beginning to manifest, U.S. consumption may see some uplift and moderate growth next year. At the same time, private investment in the U.S. is stabilizing and recovering, supported by AI investments and driven by interest rate cuts.

Regarding the inflation pressures faced by the U.S., due to the recent substantial reduction in the tax rates of Trump's tariff policy, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to gradually dissipate next year. Recent leading indicators of inflation and inflation metrics indicate that future inflation pressures in the U.S. may be relatively controllable, with an expected overall CPI year-on-year of 2.7% next year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year, and the next chairman is expected to be chosen between Hassett and Waller. Considering that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions are made by a vote of 12 committee members, the current internal divisions between hawks and doves among the committee members are intensifying, and the next Federal Reserve chairman's control over the Federal Reserve remains to be seen. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50bps throughout next year. If Hassett becomes the next Federal Reserve chairman, his dovish stance may be slightly stronger than Waller's.

Given the expected moderate recovery of the U.S. economy next year and controllable inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve still has about 50bps of room for interest rate cuts next year. Therefore, it is expected that short-term U.S. Treasury yields will gradually decline in line with policy rates, with the 3-month and 1-year U.S. Treasury yields expected to operate within ranges of 3.0%-3.6% and 3.1%-3.6%, respectively, throughout next year. At the same time, considering that the IEEPA tariff ruling is still under review, concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit are expected to persist, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield expected to operate within a range of 3.9%-4.3% throughout next year.

**Exchange Rate: The Renminbi may enter a mild appreciation cycle, with the exchange rate center expected to gradually approach 6.8 by 2026.**

Looking ahead to 2026, driven by the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., accelerated foreign exchange settlements by enterprises, and central bank guidance, CITIC Securities believes that the U.S. dollar against the Renminbi is expected to appreciate mildly to 6.8.

First, it is expected that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will be greater than those domestically, further narrowing the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. On one hand, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50bps throughout next year under the baseline scenario; on the other hand, it is expected that the People's Bank of China will cut interest rates by 10bps to address the issue of insufficient domestic effective demand Second, it is estimated that since 2022, Chinese export enterprises have accumulated about 1 trillion USD. Against the backdrop of an expected appreciation of the RMB, this portion of funds may accelerate the conversion into foreign currency, forming a positive cycle of "exchange rate appreciation - expectation reversal - increased conversion - exchange rate appreciation."

Third, the central bank's exchange rate management model may shift from preventing depreciation to promoting appreciation. In the second half of 2023 to the first half of 2025, when the exchange rate runs to 7.2-7.3, there will be significant depreciation pressure, and the central bank will use counter-cyclical factors for regulation. However, in the second half of 2025, the RMB exchange rate will successively break through 7.2 and 7.1, while the midpoint continues to guide towards appreciation and begins to show certain pro-cyclical characteristics. This trend may continue into next year and is likely to present a model where the midpoint leads, followed by onshore and offshore prices catching up.

**Crude Oil: It is expected that the supply-demand surplus in the second half of 2026 will turn into balance, with the annual Brent oil price fluctuating between 58-70 USD/barrel.**

The incremental demand for crude oil will come from the United States, India, etc., while China's demand will remain stable. Global trade frictions and order restructuring may continue to put pressure on the economic growth and oil consumption of demand countries; on the supply side, OPEC+'s remaining production capacity is no longer sufficient, and production increases are slowing. The growth in crude oil supply mainly comes from the United States, South America, etc., but the decline in oil prices has triggered cost challenges for North American shale oil. Considering the pressure on Chinese demand, there is still a supply-demand surplus in the first half of the year. CITIC Securities believes that Brent crude oil may fluctuate in the bottom range of 58-65 USD/barrel. In the second half of the year, as the U.S. interest rate cuts release incremental demand, the supply-demand situation will gradually shift from loose to balanced, which is expected to drive Brent crude oil prices positively in 2026, fluctuating upward to 65-70 USD/barrel.

**Gold: Under expectations of liquidity easing, gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 5000 USD/ounce in 2026.**

In 2026, gold prices are expected to continue benefiting from the liquidity easing atmosphere brought about by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with global gold ETF inflows serving as an important buying force for gold. Potential geopolitical risks and risk aversion triggered by trade conflicts will continue to support gold prices. The long-term trends of de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases constitute a solid foundation for the rise in gold prices. It is expected that gold prices will reach new highs in 2026, but considering the significant increase in gold prices in 2025 and that the aforementioned factors have been partially reflected in gold prices, the increase in gold prices in 2026 may narrow to 10%-15%, with annual prices potentially reaching 5000 USD/ounce.

**Copper: It is expected that the supply-demand gap will widen in 2026, with the average annual copper price expected to rise to 12000 USD/ton.**

Supply disruptions on the mining side are expected to remain high in 2026, and potential production cuts on the smelting side have exacerbated the supply tightness. It is expected that global refined copper production will only grow by 1.1% in 2026. On the demand side, it will continue to benefit from investments in the power industry brought about by the rapid development of AI and inventory accumulation behavior in the United States, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1% expected in 2026. The annual copper supply-demand gap may widen to 450,000 tons. In addition, the liquidity easing environment will continue to support copper prices to run strong, with the average copper price expected to rise by 20% to 12000 USD/ton **Risk Factors:**

Federal Reserve policy exceeds expectations and causes disturbances; escalation of global geopolitical and trade conflicts; China's macro policy strength is weaker than expected

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