--- title: "Musk's \"autonomous driving frenzy\" cannot hide the sales winter! Tesla faces a more severe test in 2026" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271288070.md" description: "Tesla faces the challenge of declining sales in 2025, with expectations that 2026 will be even more severe. Despite Musk's enthusiasm for autonomous driving driving up stock prices, sales have not increased in tandem. Fourth-quarter deliveries are expected to decline by 15% year-on-year, and analysts have lowered their delivery forecasts for 2026 to about 1.8 million vehicles, reflecting market pessimism about Tesla's future" datetime: "2026-01-01T23:58:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271288070.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271288070.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271288070.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271288070.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271288070.md) # Musk's "autonomous driving frenzy" cannot hide the sales winter! Tesla faces a more severe test in 2026 According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as investors become increasingly convinced of Elon Musk's passionate portrayal of autonomous vehicles, Tesla (TSLA.US) ended 2025 with a stock price increase of over 11%. The world's most valuable automaker saw a significant rise in its stock price in the second half of 2025, primarily due to Musk's strong promotion of Tesla's advancements in artificial intelligence and robotics. However, truly impressing car consumers is another matter. The breakthroughs that Musk has loudly proclaimed have not translated into equivalent success in showrooms—despite record deliveries in the third quarter, the company's car sales over the past six months are likely to be below the same period last year. Data compiled by the media shows that Tesla is expected to announce deliveries of approximately 440,900 vehicles for the fourth quarter on Friday, a year-on-year decline of 11%. This week, Tesla took an unusual step by proactively releasing its own summary of analysts' average expectations, which is even more pessimistic than market expectations, forecasting a 15% year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter deliveries. Wall Street's outlook for Tesla's car sales in 2026 is also becoming increasingly pessimistic. Just two years ago, analysts expected Tesla's annual deliveries to exceed 3 million. Now, the average forecast for 2026 deliveries has plummeted to about 1.8 million. CFRA Research stock analyst Garrett Nelson stated, "Tesla investors are focused on what the company will look like in 5, 10, or even 15 years, rather than what they see in the short term. But the question is whether this expectation can be sustained, especially as we believe headwinds in the financial data will become more apparent." ![11.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260102/1767311036888288.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Tesla's sales outlook is dimming **Turbulence** Even by the standards of Musk and Tesla—two names almost synonymous with "turmoil"—2025 was still an extremely unsettled year. The automaker's car sales performed poorly at the beginning of the year, partly due to the company's overhaul of production lines at all its factories to prepare for the facelift of its best-selling Model Y. Another significant factor was the strong backlash against Musk's political actions. By early April 2025, when Musk publicly clashed with Trump administration insiders over tariff policies, Tesla's stock price had already plummeted by 45%. Subsequently, Musk pushed for a rebound in stock prices by stepping back from government affairs and refocusing on a long-term goal—launching a ride-hailing service that he claims will ultimately achieve full autonomy. In June, Tesla launched a Robotaxi service in Austin, available only to invited users, with safety personnel supervising each Model Y that picked up Musk fans. Although these vehicles violated traffic regulations on their first day, drawing the attention of a federal regulatory agency and prompting multiple investigations into Tesla's driving system, investors were unfazed by these safety concerns In September, Tesla's board proposed a new compensation plan for Musk, with potential rewards of up to $1 trillion based on milestones including the delivery of millions of robot taxis. Shortly thereafter, this "reversal" was declared complete—Tesla's stock price regained its year-to-date increase. When the stock closed at a historic high on December 16, Tesla's market value increased by more than $915 billion in just over eight months. **Still Need to Convince Consumers** However, despite the allure of Tesla's autonomous taxi prospects for investors, the attitude of ordinary car consumers remains relatively cautious. Musk himself has acknowledged the challenges in convincing consumers to purchase what Tesla calls "Full Self-Driving" (FSD). This feature still requires human supervision. There have been allegations that Tesla misled California consumers by exaggerating its vehicles' autonomous capabilities, which may have led the state to suspend Tesla's sales license for 30 days earlier this year. Tesla has attempted to stand out in China's crowded electric vehicle market with its driver assistance features, but this strategy has also failed to yield results. Competitors, including BYD and Xiaomi, have offered similar systems as standard equipment. With BYD's sales in China far exceeding Tesla's and gaining strong momentum in the European market—while Tesla has yet to obtain regulatory approval for FSD in Europe—analysts expect BYD's electric vehicle sales to surpass Tesla's globally for the fifth consecutive quarter. ![12.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260102/1767311013731323.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) BYD's electric vehicle sales surpass Tesla **What Lies Ahead** After the market widely anticipates that Tesla's sales will decline again in 2025—marking a second consecutive year of decline—Tesla will face more obstacles in 2026. The U.S. has stopped providing federal tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and leases, and Musk has warned that this could lead to "several tough quarters." However, some see a "ray of hope" in the withdrawal of U.S. policy support. Due to the reduction in support, many large manufacturers have scaled back their electric vehicle investments. Ford Motor Company (F.US) stated last month that it expects to take a charge of about $19.5 billion to abandon electric vehicle and battery projects that are destined to lose money. At the end of last year, Musk piqued market interest by promoting the prospects of the Cybercab, a two-seater small car equipped with butterfly doors. Although the prototype he first showcased at the end of 2024 lacked a steering wheel and pedals, Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm stated in October that the company would equip the model with these components if regulators required it. Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, stated, "Investors have fully embraced his vision for autonomous driving, which comes at just the right time, as Tesla's electric vehicle business is likely to be flat or grow by 5% next year." He added, "At this stage, Elon only needs to keep the automotive business stable over the next year to satisfy investors." ### 相关股票 - [Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [Tesla (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [XL2CSOPTSLA (07766.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/07766.HK.md) - [XI2CSOPTSLA (07366.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/07366.HK.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF (TSLQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [XI2CSOPTSLA-U (09366.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/09366.HK.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLR.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [SpaceX IPO Puts Sam Bankman Fried/FTX Stake In Musk Company Back In Spotlight: Here's The Missed Profits](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281557662.md) - [Tesla’s Q1 delivery figures show Elon Musk was right](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281556811.md) - [Tesla first-quarter deliveries are coming. 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