--- title: "The Venezuela incident did not shake the US stock market, but the trading logic is accumulating risks for 2026" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271647685.md" description: "Wall Street bulls need multiple factors to support achieving double-digit returns for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, but trade tensions and economic weakness are concerning. Although the U.S. military actions against Venezuela have not impacted market sentiment, geopolitical risks remain an important variable. CIBC strategists point out that investor apathy towards risk may lead to increased uncertainty in the future. The stock market is expected to continue rising in 2026, with 21 forecasters predicting an average increase of about 9%" datetime: "2026-01-06T12:05:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271647685.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271647685.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271647685.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271647685.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271647685.md) # The Venezuela incident did not shake the US stock market, but the trading logic is accumulating risks for 2026 The Zhitong Finance APP noted that if Wall Street bulls want to achieve double-digit returns for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, many conditions must be met. The trade tensions between the United States and its neighbors remain high, the economy shows signs of fatigue, interest rates are still high after three rate cuts, and the artificial intelligence boom is far from a sure bet. Geopolitics is another major variable. Although the U.S. military action in Venezuela has not impacted the sentiment of its financial markets, the suddenness of this action reminds investors that in a world undergoing generational geopolitical changes, any trading logic may be vulnerable. "We believe people are overlooking macro risks—this is even a macro risk we had not previously anticipated," said Christopher Harvey, head of equity and portfolio strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, during an interview on Monday regarding the U.S. intervention in Venezuela. So far, the raid to capture Venezuelan President Maduro has had a muted response on Wall Street. The S&P 500 index rose 0.6% on Monday, and oil prices edged up. Some safe-haven assets increased, particularly gold and U.S. Treasuries. However, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, trading below 16. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260106/1767700357837335.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Volatility remains moderate In Harvey's view, this market reaction is basically reasonable, but it also confirms his point: after a rally that pushed the stock market up about 80% over three years, investors have become numb to risks. There were certainly bumps along the way, especially the sharp declines triggered by Trump's initial announcement of tariffs in early April. However, since then, the S&P 500 index has rebounded strongly by 39%, with each pullback seen as a buying opportunity. "Since 'Liberation Day,' market returns have been astonishing, and I think people have become very, very complacent," Harvey said. Sell-side strategists expect the stock market to see its fourth consecutive year of gains in 2026, with the average expected increase among 21 surveyed forecasters being about 9%. No one predicts that the index will end the year lower. Of course, uncertainty is always a risk that investors face. However, as 2026 officially unfolds in the global financial markets, this CIBC strategist points out that traders are increasingly inclined to ignore identifiable threats, which could lead to pain. Harvey noted that given the ongoing inflation, investors' expectations for two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may be overly optimistic. He also hinted that after the recent surge in U.S. corporate stock prices, companies may lower their expectations for further profit growth, thereby weakening a key pillar of the bull market. Trump continues to wield tariffs as a weapon in negotiations with various parties, making outcomes unpredictable. The trade agreements he reached with Mexico and Canada during his first term are pending adjustments, with related progress being intermittent. Geopolitical turmoil persists, as evidenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, unrest in Iran, and tensions in Southeast Asia. Just as last weekend's events highlighted the risk that unknown factors could quickly reoccupy the stage in 2026, Harvey warned of a potential "sharp risk aversion sentiment explosion" in the coming months He suggests that clients tilt their portfolios towards high-quality assets to cope with turbulence. Harvey's views are worth listening to; he was one of the few strategists last year who accurately predicted that the stock market would rebound strongly from the tariff turmoil in April. Others on Wall Street point out that while the Venezuela incident itself has limited impact, investors should remain vigilant. "The events over the weekend sharply remind investors to continue viewing policies—whether fiscal, monetary, or geopolitical—as sources of volatility rather than suppressors," said Frank Monkam, head of macro trading at Buffalo River Commodities. "At a time when we are probing historical highs and historically high valuations, the risk of cross-asset volatility contagion has clearly increased the fragility of the stock market." Dan Suzuki, a strategist at Schroders, believes this complacency partly stems from recency bias, as market corrections have been brief in recent years, and investors have achieved double-digit stock returns for three consecutive years (and seven out of the past nine years). "Economic and earnings growth remain strong, recently bolstered by factors such as government reboots, anticipated large tax refunds, and accelerated business investment," he said. "These factors combined may lead investors to focus more on how to capture upside potential rather than guarding against downside risks." For now, seasonal factors may smooth out moderate short-term volatility. The "January effect" theory suggests that U.S. stocks typically see higher gains in the first few weeks of each year compared to other months, and this effect is currently being validated. 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