--- title: "The first non-farm data of 2026 is coming! Will gold and the US dollar face a huge shock? Analysts say this" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271906050.md" description: "On January 9, 2026, the United States will release the December non-farm payroll report, with the market expecting an increase of 60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate remaining at 4.6%. Analysts point out that strong non-farm data may dampen interest rate cut expectations, while weaker data may enhance those expectations. Citigroup predicts an increase of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.7%. If the data exceeds expectations, the US dollar will benefit, and gold prices may fall; if the data falls short of expectations, gold will rise. Analysts believe that the upside for the US dollar may be limited unless the data is strong" datetime: "2026-01-07T09:00:46.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271906050.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271906050.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271906050.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271906050.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271906050.md) # The first non-farm data of 2026 is coming! Will gold and the US dollar face a huge shock? Analysts say this Investment Insights - This data may reshape the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with foreign exchange and commodities potentially facing significant shocks. On January 9, the United States will release the December non-farm payroll report. The market generally expects an increase of 60,000 in non-farm employment, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.6%. Analysts point out that if the non-farm data is strong, it will undermine the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Conversely, if the non-farm data is weak, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will rise. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2026, with a 57.2% probability of a cut in April. 【Source: CME FedWatch Tool】 Citigroup: Beware of soaring unemployment rates Citigroup predicts that non-farm employment in December will increase by 75,000, and the unemployment rate will rise to 4.7%. Analysts indicate that if the U.S. unemployment rate rises to 4.7% as expected in December, the Federal Reserve is very likely to continue cutting rates by 25 basis points this month. They reiterated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates a total of three times in 2026, totaling 75 basis points, bringing the rate down to the range of 2.75%-3.0%. How will gold and the dollar perform? If the non-farm data exceeds expectations, it will benefit the dollar and negatively impact gold prices. Conversely, if the non-farm data falls short of expectations, it will hurt the dollar and benefit gold prices. Mitsubishi UFJ Bank analyst Lee Hardman stated that unless Friday's U.S. non-farm employment data is strong enough to prompt the market to reassess rate cut expectations, the dollar's gains may be limited. Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals in Germany, stated that if the upcoming U.S. data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to adopt a more aggressive easing policy than currently anticipated, gold is likely to move towards setting new records again ## 相关资讯与研究 - [SK Hynix appoints underwriters for its US listing, South Korean newspaper says](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281594027.md) - [$100 Invested In ProShares Ultra Silver 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281548227.md) - [Why Is Silver Down 4% Today, 4/2/26?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281547191.md) - [Iridium Communications Stock (IRDM) Moonshots 12% on SpaceX IPO Filing and Amazon Takeover Rumors](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281548482.md) - [Trump speech unleashes more pain on US consumers with $5 gasoline, record diesel in sight](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281550771.md)