--- title: "The most pessimistic in nearly a decade! Goldman Sachs: Geopolitical factors pressuring under a surplus supply pattern, nearly 60% of institutional investors are bearish on crude oil" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/272019052.md" description: "Goldman Sachs' survey shows that the global crude oil supply surplus is intensifying, and geopolitical factors have driven institutional investors' bearish sentiment on crude oil to near extreme levels not seen in a decade. Over 59% of respondents hold a bearish stance, with pessimism approaching the historical low of 2016. The increase in OPEC+ supply and slowing demand are expected to lead to a nearly 20% cumulative decline in oil prices by 2025. The market generally believes that the crude oil supply surplus will persist into 2026, with Brent crude futures prices potentially falling to $59 per barrel" datetime: "2026-01-09T03:38:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/272019052.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/272019052.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/272019052.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/272019052.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/272019052.md) # The most pessimistic in nearly a decade! Goldman Sachs: Geopolitical factors pressuring under a surplus supply pattern, nearly 60% of institutional investors are bearish on crude oil According to the Zhitong Finance APP, **a survey by Goldman Sachs Group found that as signs of a global oil supply surplus become increasingly evident, geopolitical factors are driving institutional investors' bearish sentiment on oil to near the most extreme levels seen in the past decade.** The survey results released by Goldman Sachs on Thursday showed that among over 1,000 clients surveyed across various asset classes, more than 59% of respondents held a bearish or slightly bearish stance on oil. This sentiment level is nearly touching the historical low in the monthly dataset dating back to January 2016. The only time investor pessimism on oil was slightly higher than the current level was last April when U.S. President Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on U.S. trading partners. Additionally, the survey indicated that the proportion of institutional investors who identified oil as their most preferred short position reached a historical high, further exacerbating the overall bearish sentiment. ![41.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260109/1767928759516691.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Due to increased supply from OPEC+ and its competitors, coupled with a slowdown in global demand growth, oil prices have cumulatively fallen nearly 20% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline since 2020. The outlook for oil prices in 2026 remains uncertain. Although OPEC+ confirmed last weekend that it would maintain its current production policy stable until the first quarter of 2026, the market generally believes that a significant oil supply surplus will emerge this year unless demand shows a substantial recovery. According to the average forecasts from Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley, the current trading price of Brent crude oil futures, which is close to $61 per barrel, is expected to further decline to about $59 per barrel by 2026. After Trump initiated a "decapitation" military action against Venezuela last weekend, forcibly capturing Venezuelan President Maduro, he called on U.S. oil companies, including ExxonMobil (XOM.US), Chevron (CVX.US), and ConocoPhillips (COP.US), to invest billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela's energy sector. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, totaling 303 billion barrels. If these U.S. energy giants respond to Trump's call and invest billions in Venezuela to revive the country's oil production, it could become a bearish factor for the future oil market. In the medium to long term, if a pro-U.S. regime supported by the U.S. successfully comes to power, U.S. oil companies are expected to return to the Venezuelan market, increasing exploration and development efforts in local oil fields and investing in the repair of port facilities. The country's oil export scale could potentially increase by 3 million barrels per day, which would suppress the long-term upward potential of oil prices. David Goldwyn, a former senior energy official at the State Department during the Obama administration and now an energy industry consultant, stated, "If Venezuela's future has any impact on the market, it would be a bearish one because Venezuela's output has no other way but to increase." Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, estimated that if a new government in Venezuela could lift sanctions and attract foreign investors back, the country's oil exports could approach 3 million barrels in the medium term According to reports, the Trump administration is planning a far-reaching action aimed at dominating Venezuela's oil industry in the coming years. The proposed plan includes some degree of control by the United States over the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), acquiring and selling most of its oil production. If the reserves controlled by U.S. companies in other countries and those in the U.S. are included, this move could effectively give the U.S. control over most of the oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere. Trump has informed his aides that he believes this move will help lower oil prices to $50 per barrel. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright also stated that the U.S. will control Venezuela's oil sales "indefinitely." He added that the immediate goal is to stabilize and grow Venezuela's oil production by providing heavy crude oil diluents, parts, equipment, and services. He further mentioned that the U.S. will create conditions for major American oil companies to enter Venezuela, and the Trump administration is also considering establishing a compensation mechanism for U.S. oil companies investing in Venezuela. However, he also noted that Venezuela's oil production could increase by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day in the coming years, but returning to historical highs will require hundreds of billions of dollars in investment and "a considerable amount of time." It is worth mentioning that, against the backdrop of already ample global crude oil supply, these U.S. oil companies may weigh whether it is necessary to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in Venezuela. Additionally, who will hold power in Venezuela and the stability of the government are also important issues for U.S. energy giants. They need to confirm whether the legal and financial systems are stable in the long term, as energy investments typically span 30 years. Another key issue is whether Venezuela might return to a regime similar to that of Maduro in the future and nationalize oil assets again. Historically, Venezuela has nationalized oil assets twice, causing significant losses for U.S. oil companies, which are concerned about facing similar risks again. Meanwhile, the prospect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict coming to an end cannot be overlooked. If the conflict ends, Western countries may relax sanctions on Russia, which would increase Russian crude oil supply and further exacerbate the oversupply situation ### 相关股票 - [Goldman Sachs (GS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GS.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [SpaceX Has Filed Confidentially For Its IPO: Report](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281408917.md) - [Anthropic in Talks for October IPO to Raise Over $60 Billion, Sources Say](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280716276.md) - [Sugar Prices Fall on Weakness in Crude Oil](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281402179.md) - [Industry ministry sees no disruption in crude oil supplies before June - media](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281112463.md) - [North Sea benchmark oil supply to fall in May](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281058487.md)