---
title: "美核心通胀年率创四年低 市场略为提高对美联储 4 月减息下注"
description: "美国上月通胀年率为 2.7%，核心通胀年率升至 2.6%，创四年低点。市场对美联储在 4 月减息的预期略有上升，概率从 38% 提高至 40%。尽管如此，市场普遍预计美联储将在 6 月才会减息。失业率意外下降，促使多家大行调整对美联储的减息预期，部分机构甚至预测美联储今年不会减息，明年将恢复加息。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/272488593.md"
published_at: "2026-01-14T02:32:55.000Z"
---

# 美核心通胀年率创四年低 市场略为提高对美联储 4 月减息下注

> 美国上月通胀年率为 2.7%，核心通胀年率升至 2.6%，创四年低点。市场对美联储在 4 月减息的预期略有上升，概率从 38% 提高至 40%。尽管如此，市场普遍预计美联储将在 6 月才会减息。失业率意外下降，促使多家大行调整对美联储的减息预期，部分机构甚至预测美联储今年不会减息，明年将恢复加息。

美国上月通胀 2.7% 符合市场预期，但核心通胀按年升 0.2% 则略低於预期，按年率计按年升 2.6%，为四年低。

《路透》报道，利率期货显示市场增加对美联储提前今年 4 月减息的预期，概率由 38% 上调至约 40%。但市场仍大致预期美联储今年 6 月才再减息，届时现任主席鲍威尔已离任。

美国上月失业率出乎意料下降，引发大行调整对美联储减息预期，大摩、巴克莱及花旗分别延后美联储今年加息预测，摩通更预测美联储今年不减息，且明年恢复加息。

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