--- title: "《大行》野村：人行政策举措符预期 维持全年下调政策利率 10 点子及降准半厘预测" description: "野村报告指出，中国人民银行近期公布的政策措施符合预期，认为这是应对经济动能恶化的正确做法。报告提到，央行副行长表示存款准备金率和利率仍有下调空间，人民币汇率稳定。野村维持全年下调政策利率 10 个基点及降准 50 个基点的预测，预计将在第二季度实现。" type: "news" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/272795210.md" published_at: "2026-01-16T06:31:36.000Z" --- # 《大行》野村：人行政策举措符预期 维持全年下调政策利率 10 点子及降准半厘预测 > 野村报告指出，中国人民银行近期公布的政策措施符合预期，认为这是应对经济动能恶化的正确做法。报告提到，央行副行长表示存款准备金率和利率仍有下调空间，人民币汇率稳定。野村维持全年下调政策利率 10 个基点及降准 50 个基点的预测，预计将在第二季度实现。 野村报告指，人行昨日 (15 日) 公布一系列措施基本符合预期。该行认为，人行自去年 9 月以来，为免助长本已过热股市，应避免减息降准等高调货币宽松措施，今次行动是应对内地经济动能急速恶化的正确做法，亦显示内地当局对增长态势日益关注。国务院上周五 (9 日) 承诺降低消费者和企业融资成本，今次宽松措施或有助解决相关问题。 报告引述人行副行长邹澜表示，存款准备金率与利率仍有下调空间，又指人民币汇率目前相对稳定，美元处减息周期，汇率不构成强大制约。该行认为，人行今次行动及副行长的言论，与该行对今年一次性下调政策利率及存款准备金率分别 10 个及 50 个基点的预测相符，基本情境预计於第二季实现。 ### Related Stocks - [YINN.US - 富时中国 3 倍做多 ETF - Direxion](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/YINN.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | ByteDance joins Chinese rivals offering freebies in bid to acquire AI app users | In a competitive giveaway battle among AI apps in China, ByteDance's Doubao chatbot is offering over 100,000 tech produc | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275531859.md) | | US expected to add Alibaba and other to list of firms allegedly aiding China's military, sources say | The Trump administration is set to add Alibaba and other companies to a list of firms allegedly supporting China's milit | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275904637.md) | | China Jan M1 money supply +4.9% y/y | China Jan M1 money supply +4.9% y/y | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275876240.md) | | One Year After DeepSeek's Breakthrough, Chinese AI Firms Gear Up to Launch Affordable Models | One year after DeepSeek's groundbreaking launch of a budget-friendly AI model, several Chinese tech firms, including Bai | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275741370.md) | | Alipay AI Payment Exceeds 120 Million Transactions in One Week as Agentic Commerce Accelerates in China | Alipay's AI Pay has surpassed 120 million transactions in one week, marking a significant milestone in agentic commerce | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275904280.md) | --- > **免责声明**：本文内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。