---
title: "《大行》花旗：内地去年出生人口年减 17% 料对婴幼儿配方奶粉类股构逆风"
description: "花旗研报指出，2022 年中国新生儿数量为 792 万，年减 17%，低于预期，可能对婴幼儿配方奶粉类股构成逆风。尽管政府推出鼓励生育措施，出生率仍低，面临人口结构挑战。花旗对相关股票的评级为：中国飞鹤中性，目标价 4.3 元；H&H 国际控股买入，目标价 18.8 元。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273043221.md"
published_at: "2026-01-20T07:08:31.000Z"
---

# 《大行》花旗：内地去年出生人口年减 17% 料对婴幼儿配方奶粉类股构逆风

> 花旗研报指出，2022 年中国新生儿数量为 792 万，年减 17%，低于预期，可能对婴幼儿配方奶粉类股构成逆风。尽管政府推出鼓励生育措施，出生率仍低，面临人口结构挑战。花旗对相关股票的评级为：中国飞鹤中性，目标价 4.3 元；H&H 国际控股买入，目标价 18.8 元。

花旗研报指出，中国国家统计局数据显示，内地去年新生儿数量仅为 792 万名，较 2024 年大幅减少逾 160 万名，年减 17%。该数据逊花旗预期，并可能对婴幼儿配方奶粉类股构成逆风。

花旗指，虽然政府已推出多项鼓励生育措施，如延长产假与陪产假、放宽婚姻登记规定及提高退休年龄，此状况仍然发生。低出生率对中国构成日益严峻的人口结构挑战。政府未来可能推出更多激励措施以促进婚姻与生育。

以下是花旗对婴幼儿配方奶粉类股的评级及目标价：

股份 | 投资评级 | 目标价 (港元)

中国飞鹤 (06186.HK) | 中性 | 4.3 元

H&H 国际控股 (01112.HK) | 买入 | 18.8 元

(hc/)

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