---
title: "《大行》摩通料蒙牛今年销售及盈利转势  目标价降至 20 元续吁「增持」"
description: "摩根大通预计蒙牛今年销售额和经调整盈利将分别增长 2% 和 17%。尽管面临温和需求和其他饮品竞争，公司仍在优化产品组合和拓展新渠道。摩根大通维持对蒙牛的「增持」评级，目标价从 22 元降至 20 元，预计农历新年销售将成为短期催化剂。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/274087334.md"
published_at: "2026-01-29T03:57:14.000Z"
---

# 《大行》摩通料蒙牛今年销售及盈利转势  目标价降至 20 元续吁「增持」

> 摩根大通预计蒙牛今年销售额和经调整盈利将分别增长 2% 和 17%。尽管面临温和需求和其他饮品竞争，公司仍在优化产品组合和拓展新渠道。摩根大通维持对蒙牛的「增持」评级，目标价从 22 元降至 20 元，预计农历新年销售将成为短期催化剂。

摩根大通研究报告指，预期蒙牛 (02319.HK) 今年的销售额及经调整盈利将分别按年回升 2% 及 17%，相较 2025 年按年分别跌 7% 及 8%。该行认为今年的竞争环境将趋向良性，虽然整体需求温和，且面临其他饮品如咖啡及茶类的竞争，公司仍然积极优化产品组合及拓展新渠道，以重夺市场份额。同时，公司的净利润率相对较低，其盈利对经营杠杆的敏感度更高。

该行维持予蒙牛「增持」评级，目标价由 22 元降至 20 元，预期今年农历新年强劲的销售将成为短期催化剂。

### Related Stocks

- [02319.HK - 蒙牛乳业](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02319.HK.md)

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