--- title: "国债的艾略特波浪分析：有望迎来上涨" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275696771.md" description: "国债期货有望迎来一波显著的反弹，可能持续数月。分析表明，自 2020 年以来的下行趋势可能已经结束，五浪模式显示在 82.00 附近存在支撑。如果价格保持在 2023 年低点 82.42 之上，反弹可能会测试 94.60 到 95.20 之间的阻力位，目标更高可达 118.90。相反，如果跌破 82.42，可能会导致进一步下跌，支撑位在 75.40，甚至可能降至 65.10 或 55.10" datetime: "2026-02-12T03:57:42.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275696771.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275696771.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275696771.md) --- # 国债的艾略特波浪分析：有望迎来上涨 Treasury bond futures appear ready for a sizeable bounce that could persist for several months or longer. Here we show how the same move might appear in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT). Although we continue to believe the major high in bonds was set in 2020, the downward pattern since that time might be complete. It is possible to count a five-wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) impulsive move into the TLT support zone near 82.00. If price remains above the 2023 low of 82.42, then a rally should take it to test initial resistance near 94.60 – 95.20, as drawn with the gray path. Moving above that level would serve as initial confirmation of the bounce scenario and would allow for a test of the higher areas shown: 102.50, 106.70 – 107.70, and our preferred upward target at 114.40. A stretch target for the move awaits near 118.90. The most prominent alternative scenario is that bonds haven’t yet found a low. As shown with the red path, a break beneath 82.42 would allow for a run to the next support at 75.40 and might allow tests of lower supports. If price declines, then 65.10 appears the most likely area for the downward move to finish, but even a test of 55.10 would be possible. You can join us every day at Trading On The Mark for more charts and livestreamed discussions of intraday markets. ### 相关股票 - [TBT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TBT.US.md) - [SHV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHV.US.md) - [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TLT.US.md) - [TMV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TMV.US.md) - [BND.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BND.US.md) - [TMF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TMF.US.md) - [AGG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AGG.US.md) - [TBF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TBF.US.md) - [IEF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEF.US.md) - [GOVT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOVT.US.md) - [SHY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHY.US.md) - [TYA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TYA.US.md) - [BIL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BIL.US.md) - [UBT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UBT.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [2 月美国净资本流入 1845 亿美元](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282896398.md) - [美债收益率随油价上涨，美联储在通胀与增长风险间权衡](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283044811.md) - [美债卖不动了？外国投资者需求骤降 油价飙升或是 “幕后黑手”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282103399.md) - [外国投资者在 2 月将美国国债持仓推升至历史高位](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282906140.md)