---
title: "U.S. inflation cools more than expected, market bets on a 50% chance of three rate cuts this year"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275913452.md"
description: "The inflation reading released on Friday was lower than expected, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices, as investors increased their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times in 2026. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to changes in central bank policy, fell by as much as 6 basis points to 3.40%, the lowest since October of last year, before narrowing slightly. Following the data release, traders priced in a rate cut of about 63 basis points for the year—implying a roughly 50% probability of a third 25 basis point cut by the end of the year, on top of the two cuts already priced in, compared to 58 basis points priced in on Thursday. Regarding the January non-farm payroll data, traders earlier this week no longer fully priced in a 25 basis point cut by mid-year, pushing their bets to July. Wall Street banks that previously predicted a rate cut in March have also pushed their expectations to later in 2026"
datetime: "2026-02-13T14:15:51.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275913452.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275913452.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275913452.md)
---

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# U.S. inflation cools more than expected, market bets on a 50% chance of three rate cuts this year

According to Jinshi Data on February 13, the inflation reading released on Friday was lower than expected, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices and increasing investor expectations for three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to changes in central bank policy, fell by as much as 6 basis points to 3.40%, the lowest since October of last year, before narrowing slightly. Following the data release, traders priced in a rate cut of about 63 basis points for the year—implying a roughly 50% probability of a third 25 basis point cut before the end of the year, on top of the two cuts already priced in, compared to 58 basis points priced in on Thursday. Regarding the January non-farm payroll data, traders earlier this week no longer fully priced in a 25 basis point cut in mid-year, pushing their bets to July. Previously, Wall Street banks that predicted a rate cut in March have also pushed their expectations to later in 2026

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