--- title: "A historic scene repeats: three variables determine the market direction after the holiday" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275976303.md" description: "This week, the global capital markets have seen increased divergence, with the Asia-Pacific markets outperforming Europe and the United States. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose by 8.21%, the Taiwan Weighted Index increased by 5.74%, and the Nikkei 225 Index climbed by 4.96%. European and American stock indices generally declined, with the Nasdaq Index falling by 2.10%. Concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence technology on traditional industries have intensified, suppressing the performance of U.S. stocks. The A-share market rose steadily, with the Wind All A Index increasing by 1.11%. The technology growth sector performed prominently, with the Sci-Tech Innovation series indices rising by more than 3%. The Hong Kong stock market underperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.027%" datetime: "2026-02-14T10:22:31.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275976303.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275976303.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275976303.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275976303.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275976303.md) # A historic scene repeats: three variables determine the market direction after the holiday This week, the global capital market's divergence has further intensified, with **the Asia-Pacific market outperforming Europe and the United States**. The Korea Composite Index led the world with a weekly increase of 8.21%, followed closely by the Taiwan Weighted Index, which rose 5.74%, and the Nikkei 225 Index, which increased by 4.96%. The Ho Chi Minh Index rose by 3.91%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA Index increased by 1.92%, indicating a general preference for emerging markets. In stark contrast, major stock indices in Europe and the United States all closed lower: the Nasdaq Index fell by 2.10%, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.39%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.23%. Concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence technology on traditional industry profit models continue to ferment, leading to a reassessment of the valuation logic of tech giants, which has become a core factor suppressing U.S. stock performance. The A-share market showed a robust upward trend overall, with the technology growth sector performing particularly well. The Wind All A Index rose by 1.11% this week, with market turnover remaining high, indicating sustained capital activity before the holiday. Among the major indices, the Sci-Tech Innovation series led the market, with both the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 indices rising over 3%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index. Notably, the **DeepSeek Index surged 8.31% this week**, and the humanoid robot index rose by 2.27%, reflecting the market's high attention to the segmented directions of the artificial intelligence industry chain. Small and mid-cap style indices outperformed large-cap indices, while the dividend index and the central estimation index performed flat, indicating that **capital is rotating from high-dividend defensive sectors to technology growth sectors**. The Hong Kong stock market experienced overall fluctuations this week, underperforming the A-share market. The Hang Seng Index slightly rose by 0.027%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.266%, lacking a clear direction. Southbound capital continued to show large-scale net inflows, becoming a backbone support for the Hong Kong stock market, in a tug-of-war with foreign capital outflows. In terms of sectors, AI-related stocks performed prominently, with **ZhiPu Technology's stock price rising over 130% in a single week after releasing and open-sourcing the GLM-5 large model**, boosting sentiment in the software and semiconductor sectors. In terms of industries, this week’s A-share market exhibited significant sector rotation characteristics, with **technology and some cyclical sectors leading, while the consumer sector generally faced pressure**. The computer, electronics, and media sectors benefited from the explosive demand for AI computing power, with weekly increases of 4.35%, 3.52%, and 3.51%, respectively, as concepts like CPO, computing power leasing, and large models continued to ferment. The communication, machinery equipment, and national defense military industry sectors also performed actively, with increases exceeding 2%. The comprehensive industry led with a 15.28% increase, primarily due to expectations of significant asset restructuring for some companies. The construction materials sector rose by 2.86%, reflecting the market's attention to infrastructure investment and urban renewal policies. In contrast, the consumer sector collectively retreated, with textiles and apparel, food and beverage, and beauty and personal care sectors experiencing the largest declines, indicating a rotation of capital from high-valuation consumer sectors to technology growth sectors ahead of the holiday, compounded by profit-taking pressure from some institutions. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology, as well as social services sectors, also closed lower. The large financial sector showed weakness, with both banking and non-bank financial sectors recording declines of over 1% The commodity market is showing a differentiated pattern. In terms of agricultural products, soybean futures prices have surged significantly, mainly driven by weather disturbances in South America and a rebound in domestic crushing demand. Precious metals and industrial metals have benefited from rising risk aversion and expectations of a manufacturing recovery, with Shanghai gold and international copper prices both recording substantial gains. Although changes in upstream resource prices may exert cost pressure on downstream sectors, the current market is more focused on profit expectations, and related sectors have not attracted capital as a result. On the policy front, clear signals continue to be released domestically to support technological innovation and strengthen regulation. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have optimized refinancing measures, focusing on supporting high-quality listed companies and technology innovation enterprises, and clarifying the criteria for "light assets and high R&D investment." The Cyberspace Administration of China has mandated the mandatory labeling of AI content to regulate industry development. In terms of economic data, the January CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating mild inflation while industrial product prices remain on the edge of deflation, with a clear policy tone of stabilizing growth without resorting to "flood irrigation." Looking ahead to the market after the holiday, the current differentiated pattern is not simply a short-term rotation but a temporary equilibrium formed by global investors during the process of switching industrial narratives and recalibrating macro expectations. **The market is not lacking in funds; capital is waiting for a new pricing anchor.** The future evolution of styles will depend on the degree of resonance of several key variables: first, the performance realization of U.S. tech stocks and the progress of capital expenditures; if the overseas AI narrative experiences marginal recovery, the AH tech sector, previously dragged down by sentiment, may rebound first; second, the potential resonance between domestic industrial fundamentals and policy guidance; if the technological iteration of AI large models and the adaptation progress of domestic computing power can form a synergy, A-share tech stocks are expected to show a relatively independent stabilization trend; third, the verification signals from macroeconomic and consumption data; if the recovery momentum continues, cyclical sectors will gain valuation recovery momentum. From a medium to long-term perspective, **A-shares have the foundation to evolve from a structural market to a systematic revaluation.** The bottoming recovery of the profit cycle, the trend decline of the risk-free interest rate, and the acceleration of the industrialization of new productive forces from policy planning are jointly solidifying the valuation foundation of the market. For investors, the process of waiting for a pricing anchor is also a window for laying out new main lines. **When the macro narrative returns to calm and industrial logic moves towards realization, the market direction will ultimately become clear.** ### 相关股票 - [ChinaAMC Nomura N225 ETF(QDII) (513520.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/513520.CN.md) - [Pro Ultrshrt Yen (YCS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/YCS.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Pricier fuel hits Tokyo cherry blossom river cruises ](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281140182.md) - [Japanese Firms Reduce Share Buybacks for First Time Since 2020](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281588090.md) - [Why Nvidia stock may rebound after recent losses](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281411634.md) - [Looking for the Next AI Winner? 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