---
title: "交易员因应美通胀数据调整减息预测 料年内第三次减息机会约五成"
description: "美国上周五公布的通胀率为 0.2%，低于预期，导致交易员调整对美联储减息的预期。预计今年减息幅度为 63 个基点，年底前第三次减息的机会约为 50%。交易员此前的预期为 58 个基点。根据芝加哥商品交易所的数据，年底前利率降低四分三厘或以上的机会为 48%。华尔街大行也将减息预期推迟至下半年。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276041397.md"
published_at: "2026-02-16T07:33:17.000Z"
---

# 交易员因应美通胀数据调整减息预测 料年内第三次减息机会约五成

> 美国上周五公布的通胀率为 0.2%，低于预期，导致交易员调整对美联储减息的预期。预计今年减息幅度为 63 个基点，年底前第三次减息的机会约为 50%。交易员此前的预期为 58 个基点。根据芝加哥商品交易所的数据，年底前利率降低四分三厘或以上的机会为 48%。华尔街大行也将减息预期推迟至下半年。

美国上周五 (13 日) 公布的上月通胀率 0.2% 低於预期，为去年 7 月以来最小升幅，交易员调整对美联储今年减息的预期。

《彭博》报道，交易员将美联储今年减息幅度定价为约 63 个基点，相当於年底前第三次减息机会率约五成。交易员上周四 (12 日) 对今年减息幅度的定价为 58 个基点。根据芝加哥商品交易所利率期货，今年底利率较目前低四分三厘或以上 (即减息三次或以上) 机会率为 48%。

交易员早前因应上月就业数据，已停止完全预期年中减息四分一厘，转移预期 7 月才减息。先前预测下月减息的华尔街大行，亦已将预期延后至今年下半年。

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