--- title: "Federal Reserve officials engage in heated debates over the script for restarting interest rate cuts, with inflation risks becoming the biggest roadblock" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276185196.md" description: "Federal Reserve officials discuss the possibility of interest rate cuts. Goolsbee stated that if inflation falls back to the 2% target, there may be more room for rate cuts, but inflation in the service sector remains high. He welcomed the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair. Daly emphasized the need to lower inflation, noting that while artificial intelligence may help, moderate policies remain important. The Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts to boost the job market and is currently hesitant about further cuts" datetime: "2026-02-18T00:31:01.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276185196.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276185196.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276185196.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276185196.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276185196.md) # Federal Reserve officials engage in heated debates over the script for restarting interest rate cuts, with inflation risks becoming the biggest roadblock **Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee** stated on Tuesday that if inflation continues to fall back to the 2% target level, there may be more room for rate cuts this year. Goolsbee warned that inflation in the service sector remains high, and he indicated that if price increases related to tariffs are a one-time phenomenon, it could provide policymakers with room for adjustments. “I do believe that **if it turns out that these price increases are temporary, and we can demonstrate that inflation is on the path back to 2%, I still think there could be multiple rate cuts in 2026**, but we need to see actual progress,” Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC. He previously admitted that current U.S. inflation is “a bit stuck at 3%” and has not returned to the path toward the 2% target, a situation he described as “unacceptable.” Goolsbee also expressed his welcome for Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair, who will succeed Powell, whose term ends in May. He noted that he had worked with Warsh during the 2008 financial crisis. “I have a lot of respect for him,” Goolsbee said. On the same day, **San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly** stated that **the Federal Reserve still needs to bring down inflation,** and while artificial intelligence may provide assistance in this regard, moderate or slightly restrictive policies from the Federal Reserve are also crucial to achieving this goal. She also pointed out that while large-scale investments in artificial intelligence can boost overall demand growth, they may also exacerbate inflationary pressures, and the interplay of these two forces needs to be carefully considered. “We need to bring down inflation and ensure it is on a good downward trajectory,” Daly said at an event at San Jose State University, adding that the Federal Reserve also needs to ensure that vulnerabilities in the labor market—such as the current phenomenon where most jobs in the U.S. come from a few industries—do not evolve into weaknesses in the labor market. She also mentioned that most industries in the U.S. economy, aside from healthcare and education, are facing employment pressures. In the second half of 2025, to boost the weak job market, the Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points, lowering the overnight rate target range to between 3.5% and 3.75%. At the meeting at the end of January, Federal Reserve officials kept the rate target unchanged, and overall, they were hesitant about whether further rate cuts were necessary. Daly previously stated that she supported the decision to keep rates unchanged last month, but she expects one or two more rate cuts this year. **Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr** has a relatively more hawkish stance on interest rates. He stated on Tuesday that **given the persistent risks to the U.S. inflation outlook, the next Federal Reserve rate cut may still be a long way off.** “Based on the current situation and the data at hand, it may be appropriate to maintain stable rates for a period of time before we assess new data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” Barr said during a speech at a meeting held by the New York Business Economics Association in New York "The current prudent approach to monetary policy is to take the necessary time to assess the evolving situation," he added. "Provided that the labor market remains stable, I would like to see evidence of a continued decline in goods price inflation before considering further reductions in policy interest rates." Barr stated that while there are reasons to expect that tariff pressures pushing up inflation will ease, the state of price pressures remains concerning. "There are many reasons to worry that inflation will remain persistently high," he said. "I believe there is a significant risk that inflation will stay above our 2% target, which means we need to remain vigilant." Barr also noted in his speech that **the job market has stabilized, and recent data confirms this fact**. However, at the same time, the employment situation is in a "delicate balance," and "the labor market may be particularly susceptible to negative shocks." Barr elaborated on the development of artificial intelligence in his speech. He stated that overall, **while artificial intelligence seems to have had some impact on the job market, it is largely not the main factor affecting employment levels.** "More broadly, there is evidence that so far, the application of artificial intelligence has not led to layoffs but has triggered internal job reallocations within companies," Barr said. Even so, "we should be prepared to address potential severe short-term disruptions in the labor market, even if the long-term benefits to society may be significant." Although Walsh views the productivity boom driven by artificial intelligence as a reason for interest rate cuts, this perspective has been widely refuted in academia, and his future colleagues stand in opposition to him. "In the long run, I expect artificial intelligence to improve productivity and living standards," Barr stated, adding, "I believe **the AI boom is unlikely to be a reason for lowering policy interest rates**." Barr pointed out that so far, among the various scenarios brought about by artificial intelligence, the most likely situation is that this technology will enhance productivity and support research and development, but will not "fundamentally change" the job market. He also stated that the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to determine whether artificial intelligence is causing structural or cyclical changes in the economy. He further noted that regardless of the monetary policy the Federal Reserve implements, it will not affect the scale of investment flowing into the field of artificial intelligence. "I believe that current investments in artificial intelligence are completely unaffected by the Federal Reserve's short-term credit cost settings," Barr said. He pointed out that whether the Federal Reserve is in a rate-hiking cycle or a rate-cutting cycle, investments in the field of artificial intelligence remain prosperous, driven by a "winner-takes-all" mentality in the industry. It is reported that large technology companies are expected to invest over $700 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure by 2026 ### 相关股票 - [ProShares Shrt QQQ (PSQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [Dow Jones Utility Average (.DJU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJU.US.md) - [Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLF.US.md) - [VG Financial (VFH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VFH.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Nasdaq (NDAQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NDAQ.US.md) - [ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QLD.US.md) - [Proshares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [Fidelity MSCI Financials Index (FNCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/FNCL.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg (IAI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IAI.US.md) - [Pro Ultrshort Qqq (QID.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QID.US.md) - [First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted (QQEW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQEW.US.md) - [Global X NASDAQ 100 Collar 95-110 ETF (QCLR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QCLR.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.NDX.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Jobless claims total 202,000, below estimate](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281528716.md) - [How insulated is the US economy from the Iran war?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281587491.md) - [U.S. Jobs Growth Surges to 15-Month High as Unemployment Rate Drops](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281642589.md) - [TABLE - US Labor Department jobless claims data](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281525961.md) - [Easter candy prices surge again, leaving buyers with less](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281664015.md)