--- title: "Market anxiety awaits the PCE inflation \"test\": Federal Reserve's hawkish tone and the US-Iran situation disturb the market, US Treasury yields slightly rise" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276443116.md" description: "Due to the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve and the situation in Iran, U.S. Treasury prices fell before the release of PCE and GDP data, causing traders to feel uneasy. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury rose by 2 basis points to 3.47%, while the 10-year yield slightly increased by 1 basis point to 4.07%. The market is taking a cautious stance on the upcoming inflation data and economic resilience, worried that persistent price pressures may lead to sustained high interest rates or further rate hikes. Investors are engaging in range-bound trading, being cautious about fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields" datetime: "2026-02-20T12:52:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276443116.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276443116.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276443116.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276443116.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276443116.md) # Market anxiety awaits the PCE inflation "test": Federal Reserve's hawkish tone and the US-Iran situation disturb the market, US Treasury yields slightly rise According to Zhitong Finance APP, U.S. Treasury prices fell as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data. This week, the Federal Reserve signaled a hawkish stance, and tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices higher. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, rose by 2 basis points to 3.47%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged up by 1 basis point to 4.07%. These slight fluctuations indicate that traders are reluctant to make large bets ahead of the release of U.S. December and core PCE inflation data (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) and fourth-quarter GDP data. Previously, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes showed that officials remained cautious about declaring victory over inflation. Therefore, any data released on Friday indicating persistent price pressures or economic resilience could prompt traders to question the pricing of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year. Christoph Rieger, head of interest rates and credit research at Commerzbank, stated that this would contradict the "stalemate" scenario painted by U.S. President Trump, who described "almost no inflation and exceptionally strong economic growth." He noted, "The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes have heightened the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors." ![c71c534af718ff6a4cbed3bb74c24a1.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260220/1771590844671603.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) There are concerns that if price pressures remain strong, policymakers may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period or even raise them further. Portfolio managers at Invesco and Carmignac are shorting U.S. bonds, believing that economic resilience may not lead to rate cuts. Meanwhile, escalating tensions related to Iran and oil prices have increased market uncertainty and posed challenges to anti-inflation rhetoric. On Friday, Brent crude prices remained near their highest levels in nearly six months, following Trump's intensified pressure on Tehran to reach an agreement on its nuclear program. Other investors indicated that the current uncertainty has led them to adopt range-bound trading rather than bold bets. Fund managers, including those at Vanguard Asset Management, are cautious about significantly raising or lowering U.S. Treasury yields. On Thursday, demand for a $9 billion 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities auction was strong. Ales Koutny, head of international rates at Vanguard Group, stated, "We believe the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will struggle to fall below 4%, but once it breaks 4.25%, there will be many buyers. We have been trading within a range quite successfully, but now we have reached the lower limit of that range, so I tend to slightly reduce our holdings." ### 相关股票 - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [iShares Barclays Short Treasury (SHV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHV.US.md) - [ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg (IAI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IAI.US.md) - [Fidelity MSCI Financials Index (FNCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/FNCL.US.md) - [ISHRS Us Trsry Bd (GOVT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOVT.US.md) - [VG Financial (VFH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VFH.US.md) - [Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLF.US.md) - [SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BIL.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd (TLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TLT.US.md) - [Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BND.US.md) - [Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [iShares Barclays 1-3 Yr Treasury (SHY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHY.US.md) - [iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEF.US.md) - [iShares Core US Aggregate Bd (AGG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AGG.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [TREASURIES-US yields climb as Fed keeps rates steady, upgrades growth outlook](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279659487.md) - [U.S. commercial paper market shrinks in week-Fed](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279827159.md) - [US-based StoneX proposes $320 million acquisition of London-listed CAB Payments](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279223819.md) - [LIVE MARKETS-Fed rate cut and hike are equally unlikely - BNP](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279819633.md) - [ROI-Kevin Warsh's first move as Fed chair could be a rate hike: McGeever](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279790237.md)