--- title: "Big plunge! The U.S. Q4 economic growth rate is less than half of expectations, with government shutdown and cooling consumption dragging down growth" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276450052.md" description: "U.S. economic growth slowed to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, far below the expected 3.0%. The main reasons are the government shutdown and reduced consumer spending. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown will reduce GDP by 1.5 percentage points, with some losses unable to be recovered. Although tax cuts and investments in artificial intelligence are expected to support the economy, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024" datetime: "2026-02-20T14:20:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276450052.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276450052.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276450052.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276450052.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276450052.md) # Big plunge! The U.S. Q4 economic growth rate is less than half of expectations, with government shutdown and cooling consumption dragging down growth According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the slowdown in the U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter was greater than expected, due to disruptions caused by last year's government shutdown and restrained consumer spending. However, tax reduction measures and investments in artificial intelligence are expected to support economic activity this year. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday showed that the initial annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was recorded at 1.4%, while economists surveyed had previously expected a growth of 3.0%. However, this survey was completed before Thursday's data showed that the trade deficit in December expanded to a five-month high. The U.S. GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. The economic growth rate for the third quarter was 4.4%. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the government shutdown will reduce the fourth quarter GDP by 1.5 percentage points through reduced services provided by federal employees, lower federal spending on goods and services, and temporary cuts to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that most of the lost economic output will eventually be made up, but there will be an irretrievable loss of $7 billion to $14 billion. Before the release of this report, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media, "The shutdown cost the U.S. at least two points of GDP. That's why they are now trying to do a small-scale shutdown again. No shutdown! Also, lower interest rates!" This report, delayed due to a record 43-day government shutdown, highlights the characteristics of a jobless economic expansion and a "K-shaped" recovery—high-income households are doing well, while low-income consumers are struggling with high inflation caused by import tariffs and stagnant wage growth. These conditions have led to what economists and Trump's opponents call an "affordability crisis." Only 181,000 jobs were added last year, the lowest level since the 2009 recession, excluding the pandemic period, far below the 1.459 million expected in 2024. The growth rate of consumer spending has slowed from a strong pace of 3.5% in the third quarter. Economists say spending is mainly driven by high-income households and is at the expense of savings due to inflation eroding purchasing power. Economists expect that due to tax reduction measures, the amount of tax refunds this year may increase, which could provide a tailwind for consumer spending. Economists estimate that the artificial intelligence sector, including data centers, semiconductors, software, and research and development, will account for one-third of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, buffering the impacts of tariffs and reduced immigration. 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