--- title: "在投资者重新评估因关税引发的抛售风险后，美国国债出现反弹" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276624952.md" description: "美国国债上涨，因为投资者在特朗普的关税权力被最高法院拒绝后重新评估风险。收益率曲线趋平，两年期收益率降至 3.468%，十年期收益率为 4.048%。分析师指出，市场在贸易政策和美伊紧张局势的不确定性中整固头寸。利率期货显示出今年预计将有两次降息，而 12 月份的工厂订单下降了 0.7%，超出预期。总体而言，市场正在消化近期的发展，并等待进一步的数据" datetime: "2026-02-23T16:10:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276624952.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276624952.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276624952.md) --- # 在投资者重新评估因关税引发的抛售风险后，美国国债出现反弹 \* US Treasury investors consolidating positions \* Tariff outcome priced in, including Trump's subsequent action \* US 2/10 yield curve hits flattest level since December 10 \* US rate futures still see two rate cuts this year By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries rose on Monday as investors consolidated positions following a selloff in the previous session after the Supreme Court rejected President Donald ​Trump's sweeping use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. U.S. government bonds had ‌tumbled on Friday, with market participants moving away from Treasuries on concerns that refunding tariff revenue to businesses could widen the fiscal deficit and force the Treasury to increase ⁠issuance of debt. Friday's selling of Treasuries pushed two-year yields to their largest weekly increase in 2-1/2 months. The benchmark 10-year ⁠yield, on the other hand, logged their biggest weekly rise in more than a month. On ‌Monday, that selloff has reversed ‌as investors grabbed Treasuries, shunning risk overall, given renewed uncertainty on the administration's trade policy. "There's still some digestion of everything that happened last Friday. So what's happening today ​is not so much pricing in anything new from Friday, but just ‌more consolidation until maybe the next big data report," said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in Chicago. "A lot of these tariff implications were already priced in. Most people were expecting the tariffs ​to be overturned ... and they were also expecting that the President ​would try ‌to implement them through other legal channels." The Trump administration has not provided tariffs collection data since December 14. But Penn-Wharton Budget Model economists estimated on Friday that the amount collected in Trump's tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic ⁠Powers Act stood at more than $175 billion. Trump said on Saturday he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to ⁠15% on U.S. imports from all countries, the maximum level allowed under the law. In late morning trade, U.S. 10-year yields fell 3.7 basis points (bps) to 4.048%, while U.S. 30-year yields were down 2.4 bps at 4.701%. On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, was down 1.5 bps at 3.468% . U.S. Treasuries also caught a bid in the midst ⁠of U.S.-Iran tensions, ‌analysts said. The U.S. has built up one of its biggest military deployments in the Middle ‌East, with Trump warning on Thursday that "really bad things will happen" if no deal is reached to solve a longstanding dispute over ⁠Tehran's nuclear program. Iran has threatened to strike U.S. bases in the region if it is attacked. In other parts of the bond market, the yield curve flattened on Monday in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling and Trump's tariff plan to impose 15% tariffs on all global imports into the United States. The spread between two-year and 10-year yields narrowed to 53.60 bps, the smallest gap since December 10. It was last at 58.4 bps, compared with 60.3 bps late on Friday, flattening for nine straight sessions. The curve showed a bull-flattening move, with long-term rates falling ​faster than short-term yields, a pattern that typically signals flight-to-quality trades. U.S. rate futures on Monday priced in about 56 bps of easing this year or roughly two rate cuts of 25 bps each. That was roughly steady from last Friday. Treasury yields, meanwhile, ​modestly extended their decline after data showed U.S. factory orders ‌fell 0.7% in December, a deeper contraction than the 0.6% slide that Wall Street economists ​expected. (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss Editing by Nick Zieminski) ### 相关股票 - [BIL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BIL.US.md) - [511520.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/511520.CN.md) - [511090.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/511090.CN.md) - [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TLT.US.md) - [TMF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TMF.US.md) - [GOVT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOVT.US.md) - [SHY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHY.US.md) - [IEF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEF.US.md) - [SHV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHV.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [TS Lombard 拉响警报：债券抛售潮可能才刚开始 10 年期美债收益率或升至 6%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287136442.md) - [通胀忧虑引爆全球债市，30 年期美债收益率冲上 5.18%，创 2007 年以来新高](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286932754.md) - [债市风暴越刮越猛！ 花旗预警：30 年期美债收益率下一关口直指 5.5%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286913959.md) - [市场只是在捕风捉影？多数经济学家料美联储年内不降息 债市加息定价纯属过度反应](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286924964.md) - [美股七连涨后回调风险升温！Citadel Securities 警告：美债削弱股票吸引力 资金动能正逐渐减弱](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286824955.md)