--- title: "Is it safe now that everyone is shouting about a decline? U.S. stock market sentiment indicators have plummeted, but bulls see hope" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276730449.md" description: "U.S. stocks have been fluctuating near historical highs for nearly four months, and investor sentiment surveys show that the number of bears has surpassed the number of bulls for the first time. Deutsche Bank strategists point out that the stock positioning indicator has dropped to an underweight range, which may indicate that buying pressure is about to rebound. Analysts at Ned Davis Research state that the current U.S. stock market presents a rare combination of pessimistic sentiment and upward momentum, overall leaning towards a positive outlook. Despite the deterioration in market sentiment, funds are flowing into small-cap stocks and emerging markets, and corporate earnings remain a reason for optimism" datetime: "2026-02-24T12:08:13.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276730449.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276730449.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276730449.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276730449.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276730449.md) # Is it safe now that everyone is shouting about a decline? U.S. stock market sentiment indicators have plummeted, but bulls see hope According to Zhitong Finance APP, the US stock market has been fluctuating near historical highs for nearly four months, with almost every round of gains quickly swallowed by a wave of selling, as exemplified by Monday's market performance. This endless tug-of-war has led to a notable shift in a widely watched investor sentiment survey, where the number of bearish respondents has surpassed bullish ones for the first time since last November. Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte stated that the subjective stock position indicator monitored by the bank has now fallen into the underweight range. For the ever-optimistic US stock bulls, these two bearish signals combined actually constitute a buying signal. Historically, this often indicates that stock buying is about to rebound. It also suggests that the current rebound is broadening—investors are continuously shifting from large tech stocks to higher-risk small-cap stocks and emerging markets. Ed Clissold, Chief US Strategist at Ned Davis Research, noted that the current US stock market is exhibiting a rare combination of "pessimism and widespread upward momentum." He told clients on Monday that this situation is "overall favorable for the US stock market," which is also a key reason they maintain an overweight position in US stocks. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260224/1771934419650133.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The S&P 500 index is currently down 0.8% from its historical peak set on October 28 of last year, after which the "seven giants" experienced a sustained pullback in November. The index last closed at its historical high four weeks ago and was down 2% from that level at Monday's close. In contrast, the Russell 2000 small-cap index and the S&P 500 equal-weight index have both risen at least 5.2% year-to-date. Funds are flowing from mega-cap tech stocks to smaller, higher-risk individual stocks, as well as to the energy, materials, and consumer staples sectors. Despite this, Jefferies Senior Vice President Andrew Greenebaum wrote in a report: "Market sentiment and risk exposure have deteriorated sharply." "We hardly see any extreme signals of 'buying with a pinch of the nose'—especially since the major indices haven't even entered a correction zone, it's uncertain whether this situation will occur." In addition to the classic contrarian indicator of pessimism, bulls have more solid reasons for optimism. The most critical factor is corporate earnings: compiled data shows that S&P 500 constituent profits are expected to grow 13% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of less than 9%. Although the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey results are clearly leaning towards pessimism, the market generally believes that, like other sentiment surveys such as consumer confidence, respondents often "say one thing and mean another." Matt Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, stated: "They say 'not so optimistic,' but their actions are quite honest—they are increasing their positions in risk assets." He pointed out that a closer look at the market's internal structure shows that investors are flocking to high-risk individual stocks and are increasing bullish bets through tools like single-stock leveraged ETFs. Retail investors have been consistently "buying the dips," and their performance has been quite impressive Greenebaum also mentioned that this earnings season has shown several positive signals: about half of the S&P 500 companies have raised their earnings guidance, the highest proportion since the second quarter of 2021. "These companies are operating without issues, and their performance is still growing; it's just that the market is temporarily unwilling to price them. I believe this situation will change in the medium term. I would be very surprised if U.S. stocks do not gradually rise." He specifically noted: the Ned Davis Research sentiment indicator fell into the pessimistic range on February 11; even as funds continue to shift from large-cap tech stocks to value and small-cap stocks, over 62% of S&P 500 constituents remain above their 200-day moving average; the advance-decline ratio of the S&P 500 is also at a historical high. "These signals resemble characteristics of a mature bull market rather than the starting point of a new surge, but they are certainly not a precursor to an imminent crash." Of course, investors still face multiple uncertainties: after the U.S. Supreme Court rejected Trump's tariff policy, related measures were urgently revised last Friday afternoon, increasing policy ambiguity; ongoing concerns about the impact of AI tools on the revenues of companies across multiple industries are also suppressing the stock market. Dirk Willer, Citi's Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation, recently pointed out that the S&P 500 is currently "oscillating within a chaotic range," and this sentiment indicator also suggests "a need for tactical caution." Nevertheless, Citi still reaffirms an overweight position in U.S. stocks while underweighting tech stocks, shifting 50% of holdings towards small-cap stocks. "Our equity strategy team believes there is still room for market rotation and expansion." ### 相关股票 - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [U.S. commercial paper market shrinks in week-Fed](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279827159.md) - [US March Philly Fed business index +18.1 vs +10.0 expected](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279788652.md) - [US January factory orders +0.1% vs +0.1% expected](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279617489.md) - [Trump’s war with Iran is jeopardizing his plan for Fed rate cuts this year](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279650418.md) - [Don’t count out rate cuts in 2026. Fed doves still exist.](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279978092.md)