---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, NVIDIA's Earnings Report is Coming"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276888615.md"
description: "U.S. stock index futures are all up, with S&P 500 index futures rising by 0.35%. At the same time, major European stock indices are also generally rising. Trump mentioned in his State of the Union address that tech companies need to bear the power demands of AI data centers themselves, which may trigger a super cycle in power equipment. JP Morgan believes that the recovery of traditional industries and strong macroeconomic performance mean that AI is just a part of economic growth. NVIDIA's earnings report is about to be released, and the market is paying attention to its performance"
datetime: "2026-02-25T12:47:04.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276888615.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276888615.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276888615.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276888615.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276888615.md)


# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, NVIDIA's Earnings Report is Coming

1.  On February 25th (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures rose across the board before the market opened. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 0.32%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.43%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260225/1772023132938111.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was up 0.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.95%, the French CAC 40 index was up 0.40%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 0.69%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260225/1772023120451811.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.90%, priced at $66.22 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 1.01%, priced at $71.29 per barrel.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260225/1772023082121739.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**Is the era of "self-supply" coming? Trump's new policy may trigger a super cycle in power equipment.** U.S. President Trump stated that under what he calls the "payer protection commitment" recently negotiated by the U.S. government, American tech giants building ultra-large-scale artificial intelligence data centers will have to bear their own electricity demands and related costs. In his State of the Union address to Congress, Trump indicated that tech companies will be required by the government to build dedicated power supply systems for their expanding AI infrastructure, rather than drawing additional power from local grids and significantly increasing the load. The consumer electricity rate protection commitment proposed by Trump essentially rewrites the "cost attribution" of the new load from AI data centers into the policy framework, requiring large tech companies to either build their own large-scale power infrastructure or not shift the additional electricity pressure onto local grids and residential electricity prices.

**Is the "AI-only theory" outdated? JP Morgan is optimistic about the recovery of traditional industries, and the macro economy is moving towards multiple points of bloom.** Whether the giant wave of AI ultimately leads to a gloomy recession or a "rebirth" of productivity, it has currently dominated macroeconomic thinking and stock market games. However, peeling back the details of significant global industrial growth reveals that other parts of the economy are still performing strongly, and AI is just part of the story. The stock market is clearly obsessed with AI— and the focus is increasingly shifting from those giant winners to potential losers. As the highest-valued company in the world and the undisputed biggest winner in the current AI boom, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) will release its earnings report on Wednesday, which will serve as a "reality check" on the extremely high capital expenditures and chip demand **NVIDIA (NVDA.US) Earnings Report Approaches, Tech Stocks Strengthen: Safe-Haven Funds Withdraw, Traditional Safe-Haven Assets Weaken.** The rise in tech stocks has prompted investors to pull out of safe-haven assets, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices and a simultaneous drop in the dollar exchange rate. Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%, continuing the tech index's 1% gain on Tuesday. After several weeks of turmoil, market concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence have eased. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose two basis points to 4.05%; meanwhile, the dollar and yen lagged behind most major currencies. The rebound in risk appetite has also led the money market to reduce bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, increasing pressure on the bond market. Mizuho International strategist Evelyn Gomez-Lichiti stated, "Given that the 10-year Treasury yield is so close to the psychological threshold of 4%, I believe that any buying will make shorting more valuable."

**U.S. Earnings Season Sets Record with Surprising Results, Why is the S&P 500 in a 'Fire and Ice' Situation?** U.S. companies have just delivered one of the strongest earnings seasons in recent years, but the stock market performance has been disconnected from this. The S&P 500 index saw a 13% growth in fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations by nearly six percentage points, with a ratio of 4:1 between companies raising and lowering earnings guidance in the Russell 3000 index, a level previously seen only after recessions or the 2018 tax reform. However, during the six weeks between the earnings reports of JPMorgan and Walmart, the S&P 500 index fell 1.7%, marking the worst performance in the past 10 quarters of earnings season. Part of the reason is that the stock market was already at historical highs at the start of the earnings season, and more concerning is that recent uncertainties have left investors confused: AI trading has shifted from a broad rally to stock differentiation, and then to so-called "panic trading."

## Individual Stock News

**NVIDIA (NVDA.US) Earnings Report Looms, Can the 'AI Computing Bull Market Narrative' Overcome the 'AI Bubble'?** As NVIDIA (NVDA.US) is set to announce its quarterly earnings after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday, a "stress test" regarding AI computing investment themes is also on the horizon. Global investors focused on AI computing infrastructure and the broader AI infrastructure frenzy are seeking evidence that the profits of this world's highest market capitalization chip giant are closely tied to the significant AI capital expenditure budgets of the four major U.S. tech giants, which range from $650 billion to $700 billion, and are expected to achieve strong growth. Statistics indicate that NVIDIA's performance, as the highest market capitalization company in the U.S. stock market and even globally, may trigger significant volatility in the stock market. The options market implies that NVIDIA's stock price is expected to fluctuate by about ±5% after the earnings report, corresponding to about $226 billion in single pricing movement based on its approximately $4.7 trillion market capitalization.

**Lowe's (LOW.US) Full-Year Guidance Falls Short of Expectations, High Interest Rates Continue to Suppress Housing Market Recovery.** Lowe's issued a full-year sales guidance below market expectations, forecasting same-store sales to be flat to up 2%, indicating that high borrowing costs and economic fluctuations will continue to suppress short-term performance in the housing market. Despite exceeding expectations for same-store sales and adjusted earnings in the fourth quarter, pre-market shares still fell over 3% In the past three years, American consumers have postponed home purchases or upgrades due to high interest rates and inflation concerns, resulting in a sluggish housing market rebound. Although recent declines in mortgage rates and stabilization in home prices have brought initial signs of recovery, demand has not shown significant improvement. Consumers continue to cut back on large non-essential expenditures, focusing their funds on necessities and high-value goods. In response to the ongoing slump, Lowe's is focusing on improving operational efficiency and expanding its professional contractor business.

**HSBC (HSBC.US) reports 2025 results, with after-tax profit down by $1.9 billion to $23.1 billion.** HSBC reported 2025 results, with revenue increasing by $2.4 billion to $68.3 billion, a growth rate of 4%; net interest income was $34.8 billion, an increase of $2.1 billion compared to 2024; reported pre-tax profit decreased by $2.4 billion to $29.9 billion; after-tax profit decreased by $1.9 billion to $23.1 billion; basic earnings per share were $1.21, with a proposed fourth dividend of $0.45 per share. The announcement stated that the revenue increase was mainly due to growth in wealth management (from investment distribution and insurance) and wholesale banking fees and other income, particularly in the foreign exchange business under corporate and institutional finance, although some of the increase was offset by year-on-year impacts from noteworthy items, mainly related to business sales and dilution losses associated with Bank of Communications.

**Earnings report exceeds expectations but HP (HPQ.US) stock plummets over 6% pre-market; tariffs and memory price hikes become "profit killers."** In the first fiscal quarter ending January 31, HP's revenue grew by 6.9% year-on-year to $14.4 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.81, both exceeding market expectations (revenue of $13.9 billion, earnings per share of $0.77). However, due to a complex operating environment, HP expressed a cautious outlook for future performance. In a statement, HP indicated that given the increasing fluidity of the operating environment, it currently expects fiscal year 2026 performance to be at the lower end of the previously provided earnings per share guidance range of $2.90 to $3.20. For the second fiscal quarter ending in April, the company predicts adjusted earnings per share will be between $0.70 and $0.76, while the average analyst expectation is $0.75. Due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and rising storage chip prices, the profit guidance for the second fiscal quarter may fall below market expectations.

**Citron targets SanDisk (SNDK.US): Trading it like NVIDIA (NVDA.US)? Don't dream, you're just selling commodities!** Benefiting from the super cycle of storage chips, SanDisk faced a blow on Tuesday from the well-known short-selling firm Citron Research. The latter publicly announced that it had established a short position in SanDisk and sharply pointed out that there is a serious mispricing in the market regarding its stock price. As a result of this news, SanDisk's stock price fell over 4% on Tuesday. Although this decline seems trivial compared to its astonishing increase of about 175% year-to-date and over 1200% cumulative return over the past year, the entry of short-selling firms undoubtedly casts a long shadow over this rocket-like rise **After Google, Microsoft (MSFT.US) also faces a "knock on the door": Japan's antitrust storm escalates, tech giants' cloud businesses face compliance tests.** According to an informed source, Japan's antitrust regulator, the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC), launched an on-site raid at Microsoft's Japan headquarters on February 25. The core of this action is to investigate whether Microsoft is improperly promoting its Azure cloud platform and restricting competitors by leveraging its absolute dominance in the operating system and office software markets. Regulators suspect that Microsoft has set unfair licensing terms, causing customers running Windows Server or Microsoft 365 software on third-party platforms like Amazon AWS or Google Cloud to face higher costs or more complex technical barriers than on Azure.

**Webster transaction dust settles, Santander (SAN.US) announces three-year strategy: 2028 net profit target exceeds €20 billion, RoTE aims for 20%.** After completing the landmark acquisition of Webster Financial Corporation in the United States, Spanish banking giant Santander officially announced its strategic roadmap for 2026-2028 at an investor day event held in London on February 25. Reports indicate that the bank aims to increase its annual net profit to over €20 billion (approximately $23.6 billion) by 2028 and plans to raise its core profitability metric—Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE)—from 16.3% in 2025 to above 20%. The Spanish bank stated in a release on Wednesday that starting from its 2027 performance, it will adjust its dividend structure, increasing the proportion of cash dividends to 35% of profits while correspondingly reducing the share of stock buybacks in profit distribution.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. January wholesale inventory month-on-month initial value (%) (0225-0304).

Beijing time 23:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending February 20 (10,000 barrels).

Beijing time 23:35: 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.

Next day Beijing time 00:00: 2028 FOMC voting member, Kansas Fed President Schmidt speaks.

Next day Beijing time 02:20: 2028 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks on the role of the Federal Reserve.

Next day Beijing time 05:00: NVIDIA announces earnings.

Next day Beijing time 05:30: NVIDIA holds earnings conference call.

## Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Synopsys (SNPS.US), Salesforce (CRM.US), Snowflake (SNOW.US), Trip.com (TCOM.US).

Thursday pre-market: Stellantis (STLA.US), Baidu (BIDU.US), iQIYI (IQ.US), Vipshop (VIPS.US), Zai Lab (ZLAB.US), Daqo New Energy (DQ.US)

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