---
title: "CICC: The reconstruction of the international monetary order in 2026 remains the main theme for global assets, with an overweight on Chinese stocks and gold, and a benchmark allocation to commodities, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277122165.md"
description: "CICC released a research report stating that the reconstruction of the international monetary order in 2026 will continue to dominate global asset allocation. It recommends an overweight in Chinese stocks and gold, a benchmark allocation in commodities, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds, and an underweight in Chinese government bonds. In 2025, gold and Chinese stocks are expected to perform outstandingly, with non-U.S. assets outperforming U.S. dollar assets and the dollar depreciating. Overall, the weakening of the dollar and the AI technology revolution have driven market performance, and the risk premium in the Chinese market is expected to recover in the future"
datetime: "2026-02-27T00:51:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277122165.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277122165.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277122165.md)
---

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# CICC: The reconstruction of the international monetary order in 2026 remains the main theme for global assets, with an overweight on Chinese stocks and gold, and a benchmark allocation to commodities, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that the reconstruction of the international monetary order will remain the main theme for global assets in 2026. The year 2025 will be a year of accelerated reconstruction of the international monetary order, and CICC believes this trend will continue into 2026. These trends support a continuation of the bull market for Chinese stocks and gold, and favor Chinese stocks outperforming U.S. stocks. Asset allocation recommendations: overweight Chinese stocks and gold, standard allocation to commodities, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasuries, and underweight Chinese government bonds.

## CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:

**1\. Review and Insights on Global and Chinese Assets in 2025**

Global market gold and Chinese stocks led the gains, with non-U.S. assets outperforming U.S. dollar assets, and the dollar depreciated. Looking back at the performance of major asset classes globally in 2025 measured in U.S. dollars, several prominent features emerge:

1.  Gold performed the best, with a 67% increase in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 1980. Among non-ferrous metals, copper, which has strong financial attributes, also saw significant gains.
    
2.  The dollar depreciated, and non-U.S. assets outperformed, making the dollar one of the worst-performing assets last year, with the dollar index falling nearly 10%. The S&P 500 representing U.S. stocks rose 16%, and emerging market stocks increased by 31%, outperforming U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017.
    
3.  Chinese stocks ranked high in global stock market performance, benefiting from the AI industry trend, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 50%, the CSI 300 Index increasing by 18% for the year, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rising 28%, all marking the largest annual increases in the past five years and outperforming the U.S. stock market. In other asset categories, crude oil fell by 18%, becoming the worst-performing asset, while U.S. Treasuries rose significantly, resulting in a dual bull market for stocks and bonds globally.
    

In summary, the annual asset performance can be distilled into two core clues: First, the weakening dollar generally leads to good performance for gold and non-U.S. assets historically. Second, the AI technology revolution not only strengthens the tech sectors of the Chinese and U.S. stock markets but also drives up prices of related resource products like copper. Combining these clues, whether it is the weakening dollar, the reversal of China's innovation narrative, or the pursuit of gold, is essentially related to the reconstruction of the international monetary order.

**Under the new order, the risk premium of Chinese markets is being restored, with growth and small-cap stocks outperforming.** Against the backdrop of monetary order reconstruction, the Wind All A Index is expected to rise about 28% in 2025, with profit growth contributing around 5 percentage points after splitting, while the rise in the risk-free interest rate brings a negative contribution. Therefore, most of the stock market's rise comes from the decline in risk premiums. In March 2025, CICC published a report titled "Technology Narrative, Geopolitical Revaluation, and Global Capital Reallocation," which proposed that changes in China's technology narrative and global geopolitical narrative will drive the revaluation of Chinese assets, especially technology assets. Structurally, under the catalysis of the AI industrial revolution and the reversal of China's innovation narrative, growth styles have significantly outperformed, with notable improvements in profit expectations for non-ferrous metals, communications, and electronics leading the way; and against the backdrop of improved market risk appetite, individual investors entering the market have become an important source of incremental funds, with small-cap styles performing relatively better.

**The revaluation of Chinese assets under the new order presents four noteworthy new paradigms. In addition to being driven by the new monetary order, the Chinese market itself also benefits from changes in new momentum and new ecology, specifically reflected in the following new paradigms:**

1.  The essence of this round of increase is a bull market driven by the revaluation of technology assets. At the beginning of 2025, CICC estimated that the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of leading technology stocks in Hong Kong was only 12 times, representing about a 60% discount compared to U.S. stocks, possibly related to the market's belief at that time that "only the U.S. can break through AI," as well as the technological restrictions in the U.S. Now, the narrative of U.S. dominance in AI has been broken, and the innovative capabilities of Chinese companies have been re-recognized. By the end of 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the seven major U.S. technology giants is 29 times, while the price-to-earnings ratio of leading technology stocks in Hong Kong has recovered to 18 times, significantly narrowing the gap, making the technology sector the main contributor to the market's rise.
    
2.  The entry of medium- and long-term funds into the A-share market is accelerating. In 2025, regulatory authorities are committed to promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, with six departments jointly issuing a plan that specifies that starting in 2025, 30% of the newly added insurance premiums each year will be used to invest in A-shares. The accelerated entry of insurance funds into the market has already taken the first step, with the scale of stocks and securities investment funds held by insurance companies growing to 5.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the equity position ratio exceeding 14.8%, breaking through the central range since 2017.
    
3.  The "asset shortage" pattern continues to deepen, highlighting the attractiveness of the stock market. Currently, housing prices are operating at low levels, the yield on Yu'ebao is less than 1%, the interest rate on three-year fixed deposits is only around 1%, and the yield on government bonds is below 2%. In comparison, the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index is 2.7%, attracting residents' funds into the stock market. CICC's banking group estimates that the scale of maturing resident fixed deposits in 2026 will be about 75 trillion yuan, and this part of the funds faces reallocation pressure, making it worth paying attention to whether they will flow further into the equity market.
    
4.  Funds flowing south to Hong Kong stocks and the convergence of price differences between the two markets. With external risks easing and the influence of domestic capital rising, in 2025, southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect net inflow reached 1.4 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and the proportion of southbound funds holding stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect further increased to 15%, significantly enhancing their influence on Hong Kong stocks. As a result, domestic funds are making more flexible choices between the two markets based on fundamentals and valuations, with the AH premium narrowing from a previous high of 60% to less than 20%.
    

In summary, under the broader context of the reconstruction of the international monetary order in 2025, the high prosperity and increasing share of China's new economy sectors have become new driving forces in the capital market, while the funding environment and cross-market investments have formed a new ecosystem, both of which are indispensable factors for future considerations of the outlook for the Chinese market.

**II. Three Major Consensus for 2026 from the Perspective of Monetary Order Reconstruction**

In the new market landscape, after a year of development, CICC believes that three major consensuses have formed: first, the bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will continue; second, the bull market in gold will continue, and there are also opportunities in commodities; third, U.S. stocks may underperform Chinese assets. CICC believes that understanding the underlying logic behind these consensuses will influence judgments on the rhythm and sustainability of future market trends, especially crucial for resolving some key divergences.

The popular explanatory logic for the current market consensus contains many contradictions. First, regarding the causes of the bull market in Chinese stocks, the prevailing view suggests that it is due to the relocation of residents' deposits, while others believe it is supported by a low-interest-rate environment and regulatory support for the capital market. However, in fact, the high growth of residents' deposits began in 2022, and the low-interest-rate environment and regulatory support are not new phenomena, making it difficult to explain them as triggering factors for the rise in 2025 The key point is that the relocation of deposits is a result of market rises rather than a cause. Once the market fluctuates, residents' deposits will remain on the sidelines. Regarding the gold bull market, the prevailing logic is the de-dollarization under the frequent occurrence of extreme events and rising geopolitical risks, but the simultaneous rise of U.S. stocks as risk assets with gold contradicts the notion that geopolitical risks dominate pricing. The common logic for U.S. stocks underperforming Chinese stocks is based on the poor performance of the U.S. economy, the high valuation of U.S. stocks, and the AI bubble issue. However, in reality, the nominal growth of the U.S. economy remains at a high level, and the valuation of U.S. stocks has been significantly higher than that of A-shares since 2022, making it difficult to support the logic of future U.S. stock underperformance.

CICC believes that the three major consensus mentioned above share a common thread. In the report "Asset Changes Under the Reconstruction of Monetary Order" published in June 2025, CICC proposed that the international monetary order is accelerating its reconstruction, and the forces of pattern transformation and capital flow far exceed the changes in the fundamentals of a moment, a market, or a country. CICC believes this is the common thread of the three major consensus.

**III. How to view the three major market divergences?**

CICC believes that the current A-shares may **have better conditions for a slow bull market than at any time in history.** A common divergence in the market is whether it will be a "slow bull" or a "fast bull." The prevailing view in the market is that "there's nothing new under the sun," and A-shares find it difficult to escape the past cycles of bull and bear markets, making timing for the peak in 2026 very critical. In the report "How Does a Slow Bull with a Bottom but No Top Form?" released at the beginning of the year, CICC analyzed that historically, A-shares have often experienced "short bulls and long bears," easily surging and exhausting future expectations. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has an average monthly increase of 3.2% during bull markets, far exceeding the 1.9% level of the S&P 500, and the frequency of A-shares' monthly surges ranks among the top in major global markets. However, CICC believes that the current A-shares may have better conditions for a slow bull market than at any time in history. In addition to being supported by the "new order" of the reconstruction of the international monetary order, the A-share market has also seen positive changes in "new momentum" and "new ecology." Specifically:

1.  On the fundamental side, economic transformation and new productive forces are driving the formation of "new momentum." The economic cycle in China has historically been shorter than the global average. Since 2000, a complete economic cycle in China has averaged around 4 years, while the averages for the U.S. and OECD countries are around 8 years and 6 years, respectively. The faster operation of the Chinese economic cycle is closely related to the past high-leverage development model and the "fiscal accelerator" effect of local government land finance. However, since 2017, the financial cycle has been in decline for more than 8 years, approaching the international average of 8-10 years, and the proportion of the real estate industry in the economy has significantly decreased.

CICC believes that as the resilience of the fundamentals continues to strengthen, cyclical fluctuations are expected to stabilize. Moreover, new productive forces are gradually becoming the new driving force of the economy, and the internal industry structure of the stock market is already reflecting these changes: the proportion of new economic fields related to AI and going overseas is continuously increasing in the stock market. In the first three quarters of 2025, the profit share of new economic fields in non-financial enterprises approached 40%, and the free float market capitalization share was close to 60%, which helps reduce cyclical fluctuations in the stock market and provides new growth momentum.

1.  On the institutional side, A-shares have formed a more balanced "new ecology" for investment and financing. Previously, A-shares were more inclined towards a "financing market." The "New Nine Policies" in 2024 will promote companies to increase dividends, and the level of free cash flow for companies is also at a historically optimal state, with a significant increase in dividend levels In 2024, the dividend scale of freely circulating shares of A-share companies has exceeded that of IPOs and refinancing, and the market ecology continues to optimize. 3) In terms of funding, multiple capital forces have jointly formed a positive cycle of a "new ecology." The high volatility of A-shares in the past is related to the lack of long-term capital and the high proportion of individual investors. The year 2025 will become the first year of accelerated entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market. Driven by policies, by the end of 2025, the proportion of equity positions held by insurance companies will break through the previous central level; the stabilization mechanism of the "national team," represented by Central Huijin, will mature, preventing both "big drops" and "big rises"; the implementation of high-quality development management measures for public funds will promote public funds to focus on medium- and long-term assessments; under the "asset shortage," residents' demand for real estate allocation has decreased, while there is a strong demand for potential medium- to high-return assets represented by equities. Multiple forces are driving funds into the market, and the sustainability is better than before, which is conducive to the formation of a slow bull market.

After two consecutive years of valuation repair, there is still room for market valuation to rise. Another common debate in the market is that the improvement in profits during this round of the bull market is not obvious. The market's rise in 2024 and 2025 will mainly rely on valuation repair, and to continue the bull market in 2026, significant profit growth must be achieved. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that the reconstruction of monetary order has different implications for the capital market compared to previous profit-driven rises. The core is that investors are re-recognizing China's competitiveness and seeking new allocation opportunities, corresponding to the revaluation of Chinese assets and the reassessment of investor confidence. Currently, the price-to-earnings ratios of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are not low (over 80% since 2010), but in a low-interest-rate and "asset shortage" environment, more attention needs to be paid to cross-asset comparisons. The equity risk premium of A-shares has only recovered to the average level, and the dividend yield of major indices still has a significant advantage compared to bond market yields. CICC believes that even if corporate profits do not achieve high growth, under the trend of monetary order reconstruction, the valuation of Chinese stocks is expected to continue to rise in 2026.

The probability of a rebound in the fundamentals is increasing, and in an optimistic scenario, a "Davis Double Play" could be achieved. Currently, domestic prices and corporate profits are still facing challenges, with the financial cycle downturn and weak income expectations working together, compounded by local government debt issues, resulting in relatively insufficient total demand. However, positive factors are gradually accumulating. First, the duration of the financial cycle downturn is approaching international experience, and it is foreseeable that the pressure of real estate cycle adjustments will ease. According to CICC's real estate team, cities like Shanghai and Beijing, with low social inventories, may welcome the turning point of the cycle earlier. On the other hand, most industries have significantly reduced capital expenditures since 2022 and are gradually entering a de-capacity cycle. From the perspective of listed companies and industries related to fixed asset investment, the negative growth of ongoing projects has significantly increased since 2023, with nearly 70% of industries experiencing negative growth in ongoing project growth by the third quarter of 2025. Considering that industrial added value and exports are still maintaining a high growth level, CICC believes that more and more industries will converge their supply-demand gaps in the future, which will help stabilize prices and improve profit transmission. In an optimistic scenario, Chinese stocks are expected to achieve a "Davis Double Play" in profits and valuations **2) Will the "Wash Shock" Shake the Expectations of Dollar Easing?**

The "Wash Shock" has triggered a massive global asset tremor, with markets worried that the logic of dollar liquidity has been disrupted. Trump's unexpected nomination of Wash as the next Federal Reserve Chairman at the end of January, due to Wash's advocacy for "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," has been viewed as hawkish by the market, leading to severe fluctuations in global assets. The market believes that if Wash ultimately succeeds in shrinking the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, it could partially restore the credibility of the dollar and delay the process of "de-dollarization," directly shaking the market's main line of dollar liquidity, with global stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, and other assets potentially facing headwinds.

In the short term, Wash is unlikely to reverse the Federal Reserve's easing policy direction and market trends; the main line of dollar liquidity has not been substantially shaken. CICC believes it is inappropriate to linearly extrapolate Wash's past policy positions, and it is necessary to consider political, economic, and market constraints while cautiously assessing the feasibility of Wash's various proposals and deducing future policy focal points and sequences. First, CICC judges that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to aggressively shrink its balance sheet in the short term. Logically, the most fundamental determinant of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size is the liquidity demand of the banking system, which is determined by excess reserves, and excess reserves are regulated, including Basel III's reserve requirements, liquidity requirements, and total loss-absorbing capacity requirements. Therefore, Wash's plan to shrink the balance sheet will face many constraints and will require comprehensive modifications to the current regulatory system. The current size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is $6.7 trillion, and without deregulation, it will be difficult to shrink it to the pre-pandemic level of $4 trillion. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction would "suck liquidity" out of the financial system, lowering the level of bank reserves. When reserves are insufficient, banks will reduce their market-making activities in the money market and U.S. Treasury market, leading to insufficient liquidity in the financial system and imposing constraints at the market level.

Secondly, Wash's short-term policy focus may be on rate cuts, and the future rate cut magnitude by the Federal Reserve may exceed expectations. Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, so further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve align with political constraints. Meanwhile, the Trump administration needs to reduce debt costs; if Wash is unwilling to engage in QE or "balance sheet expansion," the Federal Reserve's reduction of monetary support for fiscal deficits would break the existing U.S. fiscal-monetary coordinated expansion, and the Federal Reserve would need to support the Treasury's bond issuance in other ways. CICC believes a potential stopgap measure is for the Federal Reserve to increase the magnitude of rate cuts while the U.S. Treasury adjusts its bond issuance structure, issuing more short-term government bonds. The short-term policy focus of the next Federal Reserve may be on rate cuts rather than balance sheet reduction, leaning dovish rather than hawkish, and it is even possible that the magnitude and pace of rate cuts could significantly exceed expectations. The market's previous simplistic understanding of Wash as hawkish has led to a noticeable correction in various assets, indicating a significant expectation gap.

As for Wash reversing the trend of de-dollarization, CICC believes the likelihood is even lower. Wash's policies are constrained by various political and market factors, and more importantly, the reconstruction of the global monetary order and the erosion of the dollar's credibility are the results of multiple factors acting together, especially the current U.S. government's series of domestic and foreign policies, which continue to accelerate the process of de-dollarization **IV. Asset Allocation Recommendations for 2026**

The reconstruction of the international monetary order will remain the main theme for global assets in 2026. The year 2025 is expected to be a year of accelerated reconstruction of the international monetary order, and CICC believes this trend will continue into 2026. These trends support a continuation of the bull market for Chinese stocks and gold, and favor Chinese stocks outperforming U.S. stocks. In light of the current market divergences, CICC believes this trend can provide key arguments: First, regarding the pace of the bull market for Chinese stocks, the "new order" of the monetary order reconstruction will not happen overnight; the global funds' updated perceptions is a process that is still being reinforced, which is conducive to a slow bull market, and the revaluation of Chinese assets is still underway. Second, concerning the impact of the "Walsh Shock" on the Federal Reserve's easing, considering political, economic, and market constraints, the current conditions do not favor aggressive balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve. Moreover, the Walsh Shock may push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more than the market expects, which cannot reverse the decline in the Federal Reserve's credibility and the safety of dollar assets. Third, regarding the risk of the AI bubble in U.S. stocks, CICC believes that as AI can genuinely enhance productivity and there are no systemic leverage and debt risks, under the backdrop of global capital reallocation, high-quality assets often have a higher tolerance for valuation, and overall performance is not poor.

**Asset Allocation Recommendations: Overweight Chinese stocks and gold, standard allocation in commodities, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasuries, underweight Chinese government bonds.** Based on the above analysis, CICC ranks global asset allocation for 2026 as follows:

**Overweight: 1) Chinese Stocks:** The reconstruction of the international monetary order drives the reallocation of global funds, and CICC continues to be optimistic about the revaluation of Chinese stocks. Currently, there are increasing fundamental and profit improvement factors, and in an optimistic scenario, there may be a double boost in profits and valuations. From an industry perspective, four main lines are favored: First, growth in prosperity, where AI is expected to gradually enter the stage of industrial application, with layouts around infrastructure such as computing power, semiconductors, and cloud computing, as well as applications like robotics and intelligent driving; commercial aerospace, innovative drugs, and energy storage batteries are also entering a prosperous cycle; Second, breakthroughs in external demand, with overseas expansion still being a certain growth opportunity, such as successful fields like construction machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, and gaming, as well as opportunities benefiting from geopolitical environments in non-ferrous metals, oil and gas resource price increases, and performance improvements; Third, cyclical reversals, with opportunities for reversals in fields such as chemicals, refining, oil services, and new energy due to the convergence of supply-demand gaps; Fourth, high dividends, although it is difficult to achieve excess returns in a growth-dominant environment, it still has good base value in a low-interest-rate environment. In the financial sector, the insurance sector is favored, while in the non-financial sector, companies with strong free cash flow and sustainable dividends are preferred.

**2) Gold:** The model calculations from CICC's major asset team found that previously, the gold price and model residuals exceeded $1,500, with valuations being high leading to greater vulnerability of gold prices to negative factors. However, under the influence of the reconstruction of the international monetary order, the structural factors of global capital diversification, and the cyclical factors where the Federal Reserve is still expected to continue cutting interest rates in the second half of the year, the bull market for gold may not yet be over, and it is still recommended to overweight gold in 2026.

**Standard Allocation:**

**1) Commodities:** Commodities are beneficiary assets of global capital diversification, and CICC is relatively optimistic about non-ferrous metals. The demand side for non-ferrous metals benefits from the re-industrialization of the U.S. and the industrialization of emerging market countries, with copper as a representative industrial metal being a key resource for AI infrastructure, while some rare metals are strategic resources in national competition On the supply side, benefits arise from resource protectionism due to rising geopolitical risks. Additionally, frequent geopolitical events have begun to highlight the risk-hedging value of commodities. However, commodities may show differentiation, with the outlook for black metals represented by iron ore and rebar being relatively insufficient.

**2) U.S. Stocks:** CICC expects U.S. stocks to maintain robust performance in 2026. The equity risk premium in the U.S. market has dropped to zero, indicating that investors believe U.S. stocks do not require additional risk compensation, and valuations are undoubtedly high. However, as Keynes said, the duration of market irrationality often exceeds the time investors can remain solvent (Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent). The AI bubble has not yet reached the bursting stage, making it difficult to short U.S. stocks. CICC judges that U.S. stocks will still rise, but the upside potential is limited, and downside risks cannot be ignored.

**3) U.S. Treasuries:** For short-term trading (such as on a one-year horizon), consider increasing positions in U.S. Treasuries. CICC expects trading opportunities for a steepening yield curve to arise. From a long-term perspective, influenced by structural changes in the U.S., including relaxed fiscal discipline and institutional decay, combined with the transmission effect of significantly rising Japanese bond yields, the uncertainty of U.S. Treasury rates remains relatively high.

**Underweight: Chinese Bonds**, as valuations are relatively expensive, and the cost-effectiveness of allocation is low. From a long-term perspective, China is likely to maintain a low inflation environment, and the drag effect of the real estate industry on the economy is gradually weakening, but a rebound from the bottom will still take time, with limited risks of rising bond yields. However, Chinese bond valuations are expensive, and rates are already at low levels, with limited room for decline. Compared to assets like stocks and commodities, the return attractiveness of Chinese bonds is insufficient. From a cross-asset value comparison perspective, CICC recommends an underweight position.

**Risk Warning:** If the baseline assumption of reconstructing the international monetary order unfolds less than expected, the above judgments may be significantly affected. Specific risk scenarios include tighter-than-expected U.S. dollar liquidity, domestic economic fundamentals declining more than expected, a global AI bubble bursting, and China's AI development falling short of expectations, leading to a shake in the narrative of monetary order reconstruction

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