--- title: "Morgan Stanley: Hong Kong stocks may continue to be under pressure in the short term, with three key factors being crucial for a reversal" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277158127.md" description: "Morgan Stanley's report indicates that A-share investment sentiment has improved after the Lunar New Year, but offshore Chinese stocks still face challenges, especially the Hang Seng Technology Index. Short-term pressure on Hong Kong stocks may persist, and attention should be paid to breakthroughs in AI capabilities by large internet companies, performance during the March earnings season, and stability in the U.S. stock market. Although consumer data has improved, spending remains cautious" datetime: "2026-02-27T07:41:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277158127.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277158127.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277158127.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277158127.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277158127.md) # Morgan Stanley: Hong Kong stocks may continue to be under pressure in the short term, with three key factors being crucial for a reversal According to a report from Morgan Stanley, the A-share investment sentiment indicator has improved after the Lunar New Year, driven by a rebound in trading volume and rising expectations for the Two Sessions. However, offshore Chinese stocks still face challenges due to concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence and competitive pressures. The enhancement of AI capabilities, profit improvement, and stability in external markets for large platform companies will be key observations moving forward. Despite the improvement in A-share sentiment, offshore Chinese stocks have come under pressure this week, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index. Morgan Stanley believes this is mainly due to the high weight of service-related industries in the Hang Seng Index, which are significantly affected by the global AI disruption narrative. Additionally, intensified price competition among e-commerce platforms has dragged down the profit recovery prospects for large platform companies. Recent news regarding the development of e-commerce and AI technology has prompted investors to reduce investments in direct competitors within the broader internet and software sectors. Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook for Hong Kong and A-shares in the medium term, but short-term pressure on Hong Kong stocks may persist unless three conditions are met: 1) Breakthroughs in large language models (LLM) by major internet companies like Tencent (00700) and Alibaba (09988) restore investor confidence in AI capabilities; 2) More positive results during the March earnings season, such as more aggressive capital expenditure plans following the resumption of H200 chip procurement or the resumption of share buybacks; 3) Stability in the U.S. stock market. Regarding the improvement in A-share investor sentiment, Morgan Stanley points out that the main reasons are the demand for position replenishment after the Spring Festival holiday, the pause in large-scale selling by the "national team," and expectations for the Two Sessions, particularly in policy areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and boosting domestic consumption. Meanwhile, domestic macro data presents mixed signals; overall consumption during the Lunar New Year has improved due to an extended holiday, but spending remains cautious. Morgan Stanley continues to indicate that consumption during the Lunar New Year has improved year-on-year, as this year's holiday was one day longer than last year, with total passenger numbers increasing by 19% year-on-year, but per capita consumption slightly declining by 0.2%. The average daily number of passengers increased by 5.7%, while average daily per capita consumption decreased by 11.3%, reflecting an overall tendency towards budget-saving behavior. Looking ahead to the Two Sessions, Morgan Stanley's China economic team expects this year's national GDP growth target to be around 5%, although some provinces have lowered their targets, aiming to establish confidence in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. However, Morgan Stanley notes that maintaining a relatively high growth target does not necessarily imply stronger stimulus, as the fiscal stance is expected to be roughly in line with 2025, with a budget deficit rate of 4% and an expanded deficit rate of 11.6%. The policy mix may continue to focus on the "supply side," prioritizing the development of technology and infrastructure, while measures for consumption and real estate are more likely to serve as "buffers" rather than aggressive stimulus tools. The market expects that the full text of the 14th Five-Year Plan will center on technology, and if specific targets for "consumption as a percentage of GDP" or significant increases in social welfare spending are introduced, it will be viewed as an unexpected positive development ### 相关股票 - [Hang Seng Index (00HSI.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/00HSI.HK.md) - [HSTECH ETF (03032.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/03032.HK.md) - [Huatai-PB CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII) (513130.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/513130.CN.md) - [TRACKER FUND (02800.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02800.HK.md) - [CAM HS TECH (03088.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/03088.HK.md) - [CSOP HS TECH (03033.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/03033.HK.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Hong Kong export credit insurer keeps premiums low despite Middle East tensions](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278870367.md) - [Visitor Arrivals to Hong Kong Rise 18% Year on Year in First Two Months of 2026](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279525293.md) - [SFC prepares to inspect Hong Kong IPO listing sponsors amid quality concerns](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279863948.md) - [African Development Bank raises $383 million in 'Wonton bond' debut](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279466206.md) - [Hong Kong's December-February unemployment falls to 3.8%](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279560660.md)