--- title: "Not just rising to 80! As the Middle East conflict approaches the vital strait, Wall Street reiterates the \"hundred-dollar oil price theory.\"" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277397145.md" description: "As tensions rise in the Middle East, international oil prices have surged significantly, with analysts warning that if key shipping routes are attacked, oil prices could reach $100 per barrel. On Monday, Brent crude futures rose by about 13%, reaching $82. The market is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran has warned ships not to pass through, leading many tankers to suspend transportation. Analysts predict that if the strait is closed, global daily oil supply could decrease by 8 to 10 million barrels. Despite OPEC+ reaching an agreement to increase production, the increase is insufficient to meet global demand" datetime: "2026-03-02T03:19:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277397145.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277397145.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277397145.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277397145.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277397145.md) # Not just rising to 80! As the Middle East conflict approaches the vital strait, Wall Street reiterates the "hundred-dollar oil price theory." According to Zhitong Finance APP, as the United States and Israel launch attacks on Iran, concerns about a broader Middle Eastern conflict have triggered a significant rise in international oil prices on Monday. Analysts even warned that if key transportation routes are attacked, oil prices could further soar to reach $100 per barrel. Data shows that on Monday, Brent crude oil futures prices rose by about 13%, reaching $82 per barrel. Last Friday, the benchmark oil price had already risen to $73 per barrel due to market expectations of military action, marking a new high since July of this year. Market focus is currently on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that accounts for over one-fifth of global oil transportation. After Iran warned vessels not to pass through the strait, shipping sources reported that many tanker operators and energy companies have suspended the transportation of crude oil, fuel oil, and liquefied natural gas through the strait. Helima Croft, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, revealed that regional leaders have warned the United States that a war involving Iran could push oil prices above $100 per barrel. Predictions from analysts at Rabobank are relatively restrained, suggesting that oil prices may remain above $90 per barrel in the short term. Jorge Leon, an economist at energy research firm Rystad Energy, analyzed that even with backup routes such as Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline and the UAE's infrastructure, a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz could still lead to a global daily reduction of 8 to 10 million barrels in oil supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ reached an agreement last Sunday to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April next year. However, this increase is relatively modest and does not meet the global demand of 0.2%. In the face of potential supply risks, governments and refineries in Asia are reviewing emergency reserves and alternative supply options. Reports indicate that analysts from data analysis company Kpler suggest that India may increase purchases of Russian crude oil to offset potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Additionally, the prediction market is showing strong bullish sentiment. According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude oil prices being above $80 per barrel by the end of March is 77%, an increase of 27 percentage points from the weekend. Currently, WTI crude oil prices are around $70 per barrel, indicating that prices could rise more than 14% from current levels by then. Furthermore, the platform predicts that the probability of oil prices being above $90 per barrel on the last trading day of March reaches 50%. As OPEC's third-largest oil producer, Iran's daily crude oil production is about 3.35 million barrels, following Iraq ### 相关股票 - [SPDR O&G Ex & Prd (XOP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XOP.US.md) - [Pro Ultrshrt Crude Oil (SCO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SCO.US.md) - [ISHRS S&P Glb Engy (IXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IXC.US.md) - [United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USO.US.md) - [Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UCO.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OIH.US.md) - [SPDR Energy Select (XLE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLE.US.md) - [iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod (IEO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEO.US.md) - [Us Brent Oil (BNO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BNO.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Brace for Impact: Why Oil Prices Could Be Extremely Volatile This Week.](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281745208.md) - [ConocoPhillips Stock (COP) Moved Up by 3.30% on Apr 2: A Full Analysis](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281540399.md) - [Oil up over 1% as Mideast uncertainty keeps market jittery](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281301508.md) - [Tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passes through Hormuz, shipping data shows](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281708343.md) - [TRADING DAY-Oil Strait back up again](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281575673.md)