<p>作者：Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<p>无人机是面对未做好准备的行业的新威胁之一</p>
<p>能源专家 Anas Alhajji 表示，现在不是对伊朗战争放松警惕的时候。</p>
<p>由于对中东冲突扩大的担忧，油价在周二飙升至一年以来的最高点，股指期货也在下跌。摩根大通的 Jamie Dimon 警告投资者不要自满。</p>
<p>我们今天的观点与此相符。这来自受人尊敬的能源专家 Anas Alhajji，他担心投资者未能意识到在伊朗对美国和以色列攻击做出超出预期反应后，正在展开的重大危机。</p>
<p>周一，伊朗对沙特阿美的拉斯坦努拉炼油厂和卡塔尔的液化天然气生产进行了单独袭击。周二有报道称，阿联酋的一处油料储存地点因无人机残骸发生重大火灾。他表示，市场尚未将伊朗对邻国能源生产的攻击纳入价格。</p>
<p>Alhajji 在周一晚与 Mario Nawfal 的播客采访中表示：“对邻国和石油设施的攻击正在改变整个局势，改变我们昨天认为会占主导地位的所有预期，转向新的情景。”</p>
<p>他说，这场 “重大危机” 源于来自海湾的 1400 万到 1500 万桶原油，Alhajji 是达拉斯私募股权公司 NGP Energy Capital Management 的前首席经济学家，现在是 Energy Outlook Advisers 的管理合伙人。</p>
<p>Alhajji 表示，世界在短期内有足够的石油，因为伊朗、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和伊拉克在美国和以色列攻击之前已经从海湾地区转移了大量石油。但这大约只能维持两到三周，而中国在去年美国逮捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，已经积累了大约两个月的供应。</p>
<p>即使战争明天结束，也无法立即消除因船只避开霍尔木兹海峡而造成的瓶颈。他表示，减产的石油生产国需要时间才能恢复生产。</p>
<p>他说：“我们以前从未遇到过这些问题。霍尔木兹海峡从未关闭过。”</p>
<p>但不仅仅是石油，甲醇和食品也面临风险。Alhajji 指出，全球交易的肥料中有 33% 来自海湾地区，而亚洲和欧洲正值播种季节。他表示，即使战争在几周内结束，如果肥料问题导致食品危机，人们将 “为此付出代价，持续数月。”</p>
<p>他表示，存储在几乎所有国家的液化天然气问题比石油更严重。欧洲将面临更高的价格，因为它转向俄罗斯寻求液化天然气，或与亚洲竞争供应，而亚洲总是 “出价最高”。周二，荷兰 TTF 天然气期货在周一飙升 39% 后再次上涨 33%。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，俄罗斯和美国的液化天然气产业是最大的赢家，分析师表示。美国是全球最大的液化天然气出口国，低调的 Venture Global（VG）股票在周一飙升。</p>
<p>虽然这有助于特朗普总统实现能源主导的目标，但也带来了其他后果。</p>
<p>他说：“特朗普政府的问题在于，他们没有考虑到其行动和政策的意外后果。” 例如，在美国对伊朗发动攻击之前，公众讨论霍尔木兹海峡可能关闭的情况促使中国恢复一条旧管道，以从俄罗斯获取更多天然气。</p>
<p>尽管专家们正在讨论寻找其他能源运输路线或管道，但他说，行业面临着 20 年前不存在的技术威胁。</p>
<p>他说：“现在，几名年轻人只需 500 美元就能购买某些设备，实际上可以通过轰炸沙漠中的管道或泵站来对石油行业造成严重破坏。我们以前见过这种情况。”</p>
<p>阅读：这是关于石油和霍尔木兹海峡的 “最坏情况”</p>
<p>市场动态</p>
<p>美国股指期货（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）正在下跌，油价（CL.1）（BRN00）飙升，国债收益率（BX:TMUBAMUSD10Y）（BX:TMUBMUSD30Y）和美元（DXY）上涨。黄金（GC00）和白银（SI00）承压。亚洲的热火朝天的 Kospi（KR:180721）下跌了 7%。</p>
<p>市场动态</p>
<p>随着周二中东传出更多爆炸声，国务院已警告美国人尽快撤离。</p>
<p>塔吉特（Target）股票（TGT）上涨，因为这家折扣零售商预测今年销售将小幅反弹，利润超出预期。</p>
<p>尽管前景令人失望，但百思买（Best Buy）股票（BBY）仍在飙升，因为利润大幅增长。</p>
<p>MongoDB（MDB）股票在数据库软件集团发布令人失望的指引后下跌。</p>
<p>CrowdStrike（CRWD）和 Ross Stores（ROST）将在收盘后发布财报。</p>
<p>黑石（Blackstone）（BX）报告其旗舰私募资本基金出现大量资金流出。</p>
<p>亚马逊网络服务（Amazon Web Services）（AMZN）表示，阿联酋和巴林的三处设施因无人机袭击受损，并警告可能会出现长期中断。</p>
<p>纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）定于上午 9:55 发表讲话，他是三位地区联储发言人之一。</p>
<p>网络热点</p>
<p>海湾国家在与伊朗的攻击中争分夺秒。</p>
<p>OpenAI 的 Sam Altman 表示，他在五角大楼交易中犯了一个 “粗心” 的错误。</p>
<p>凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）推动缩减美联储资产负债表的计划将缓慢演变。</p>
<p>图表</p>
<p>Citadel Securities 的 EMEA 固定收益销售负责人 Nohshad Shah 表示，通货膨胀问题日益严重，受到人工智能对电力和资源需求的推动。在一篇博客文章中，他讨论了人工智能资本支出繁荣对各种商品的影响，例如，电力需求激增使能源市场紧张。人工智能的需求也影响了其他硬件市场，导致设备价格上涨。Shah 补充说，市场和美联储未能理解，利率可能需要大幅提高以应对这些压力。</p>
<p>热门股票</p>
<p>这些是 MarketWatch 在早上 6 点的热门搜索股票：</p>
<p>随机阅读</p>
<p>人工智能占据了她的收件箱。Meta 的人工智能安全主管的 “新手错误”。</p>
<p>一只小狗在街上游荡，导致旧金山的列车停运。</p>
<p>邮件中。天才的行李处理技巧。</p>
<p>-芭芭拉·科尔梅耶尔</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（结束）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>03-03-26 0906ET</p>

皖天然气

招商南油

新天然气

陕天然气

<p>全球经济面临重大风险，原因是中东地区紧张局势加剧，特别是在伊朗袭击沙特和卡塔尔能源设施之后。能源专家 Anas Alhajji 警告称，即使冲突结束，供应链瓶颈和石油、液化天然气及化肥价格上涨的情况仍将持续。美国和俄罗斯可能会从中受益，而对石油行业的新技术威胁的潜在风险也在增加。在这些发展背景下，股指期货下跌，油价飙升</p>

<p>By Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
</div><p>Drones are among the new threats facing an unprepared industry</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无人机是面对未做好准备的行业的新威胁之一</p>
</div><p>Now is not the time to relax over the Iran war, says energy expert Anas Alhajji.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源专家 Anas Alhajji 表示，现在不是对伊朗战争放松警惕的时候。</p>
</div><p>Oil has shot to its highest in a year and stock futures are tumbling on Tuesday as worries build over a spreading conflict in the Middle East. That's as JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warned of complacency by investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对中东冲突扩大的担忧，油价在周二飙升至一年以来的最高点，股指期货也在下跌。摩根大通的 Jamie Dimon 警告投资者不要自满。</p>
</div><p>Our call of the day would tend to agree. It comes from respected energy expert Anas Alhajji, who worries investors are missing a major crisis unfolding after Iran's bigger-than-expected reaction to U.S. and Israel attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们今天的观点与此相符。这来自受人尊敬的能源专家 Anas Alhajji，他担心投资者未能意识到在伊朗对美国和以色列攻击做出超出预期反应后，正在展开的重大危机。</p>
</div><p>Iran on Monday targeted Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and Qatar's liquified natural gas production in separate strikes. Tuesday saw reports of a major fire at an oil storage site in the United Arab Emirates from drone debris. He said the market had not priced in Iranian attacks on neighboring energy production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，伊朗对沙特阿美的拉斯坦努拉炼油厂和卡塔尔的液化天然气生产进行了单独袭击。周二有报道称，阿联酋的一处油料储存地点因无人机残骸发生重大火灾。他表示，市场尚未将伊朗对邻国能源生产的攻击纳入价格。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Those attacks on the neighboring countries and on the oil facilities are changing the whole landscape right now, changing all the expectations from the scenarios we believed would prevail yesterday to new scenarios,&#34; Alhajji said in an podcast interview with Mario Nawfal late Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alhajji 在周一晚与 Mario Nawfal 的播客采访中表示：“对邻国和石油设施的攻击正在改变整个局势，改变我们昨天认为会占主导地位的所有预期，转向新的情景。”</p>
</div><p>That &#34;big crisis&#34; stems from 14 to 15 million barrels of crude that comes from the Gulf, said Alhaji, the former chief economist of Dallas private-equity firm NGP Energy Capital Management and now managing partner of Energy Outlook Advisers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，这场 “重大危机” 源于来自海湾的 1400 万到 1500 万桶原油，Alhajji 是达拉斯私募股权公司 NGP Energy Capital Management 的前首席经济学家，现在是 Energy Outlook Advisers 的管理合伙人。</p>
</div><p>Alhajji said the world has enough oil for the short run because Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq moved large quantities out of the Gulf ahead of U.S. and Israeli attacks. But that covers probably about two or three weeks, while China has about two months of supply from building up after last year's U.S. arrest of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alhajji 表示，世界在短期内有足够的石油，因为伊朗、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和伊拉克在美国和以色列攻击之前已经从海湾地区转移了大量石油。但这大约只能维持两到三周，而中国在去年美国逮捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，已经积累了大约两个月的供应。</p>
</div><p>A war ending tomorrow would not stop bottlenecks that will take several days to clear from ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Oil-producing countries that cut production will take time to get back online, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使战争明天结束，也无法立即消除因船只避开霍尔木兹海峡而造成的瓶颈。他表示，减产的石油生产国需要时间才能恢复生产。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We never had those problems before. The Hormuz Strait never been closed before,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：“我们以前从未遇到过这些问题。霍尔木兹海峡从未关闭过。”</p>
</div><p>But it's not just oil, as methanol and food are at risk. Alhajji noted 33% of the world's globally traded fertilizers come from the Gulf, with planting season under way in Asia and Europe. Even if the war ends within weeks, people will be paying &#34;the price of this for months to come if the fertilizer issue becomes a food crisis later on,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但不仅仅是石油，甲醇和食品也面临风险。Alhajji 指出，全球交易的肥料中有 33% 来自海湾地区，而亚洲和欧洲正值播种季节。他表示，即使战争在几周内结束，如果肥料问题导致食品危机，人们将 “为此付出代价，持续数月。”</p>
</div><p>An even bigger problem than oil, stored in nearly every global country, is the LNG issue, he said. Europe will be facing higher prices as it turns to Russia for LNG or compete with Asia for supplies that will &#34;go to the highest bidder,&#34; which is always Asia, he added. Dutch TTF natural gas futures surged a fresh 33% on Tuesday after spiking 39% on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，存储在几乎所有国家的液化天然气问题比石油更严重。欧洲将面临更高的价格，因为它转向俄罗斯寻求液化天然气，或与亚洲竞争供应，而亚洲总是 “出价最高”。周二，荷兰 TTF 天然气期货在周一飙升 39% 后再次上涨 33%。</p>
</div><p>Under this scenario, Russia and the U.S. LNG industries are big winners, said the analyst. The U.S. is the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, with shares of under-the-radar play Venture Global (VG) soaring on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，俄罗斯和美国的液化天然气产业是最大的赢家，分析师表示。美国是全球最大的液化天然气出口国，低调的 Venture Global（VG）股票在周一飙升。</p>
</div><p>While this helps in President Donald Trump's goal of energy dominance, there are other consequences.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这有助于特朗普总统实现能源主导的目标，但也带来了其他后果。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The problem with the Trump administration is that they are not looking at the unintended consequences of their actions and their policies,&#34; he said. In the run-up to the U.S. attack on Iran, for example, public discussion over a likely closure of the Strait of Hormuz moved China to revive an old pipeline to get more gas from Russia, said Alhajji.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：“特朗普政府的问题在于，他们没有考虑到其行动和政策的意外后果。” 例如，在美国对伊朗发动攻击之前，公众讨论霍尔木兹海峡可能关闭的情况促使中国恢复一条旧管道，以从俄罗斯获取更多天然气。</p>
</div><p>And while experts are discussing finding other routes or pipelines for energy, he says the industry faces threats from technology that didn't exist 20 years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管专家们正在讨论寻找其他能源运输路线或管道，但他说，行业面临着 20 年前不存在的技术威胁。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Right now, as we speak, a couple of young people with $500 can buy certain equipment and literally wreak havoc on the oil industry by bombing a pipeline or a pumping station in the middle of the desert. We've seen it before.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：“现在，几名年轻人只需 500 美元就能购买某些设备，实际上可以通过轰炸沙漠中的管道或泵站来对石油行业造成严重破坏。我们以前见过这种情况。”</p>
</div><p>Read: Here is the 'worst-case scenario' for oil and the Strait of Hormuz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：这是关于石油和霍尔木兹海峡的 “最坏情况”</p>
</div><p>The markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场动态</p>
</div><p>U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are sinking, oil (CL.1) (BRN00) is soaring, Treasury yields BX:TMUBAMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD30Y and the dollar DXY are up. Gold (GC00) and silver (SI00) are under pressure. Asia's red-hot Kospi KR:180721 sank 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股指期货（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）正在下跌，油价（CL.1）（BRN00）飙升，国债收益率（BX:TMUBAMUSD10Y）（BX:TMUBMUSD30Y）和美元（DXY）上涨。黄金（GC00）和白银（SI00）承压。亚洲的热火朝天的 Kospi（KR:180721）下跌了 7%。</p>
</div><p>The buzz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场动态</p>
</div><p>As more blasts were heard across the Middle East on Tuesday, the State Department has been warning Americans to get out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着周二中东传出更多爆炸声，国务院已警告美国人尽快撤离。</p>
</div><p>Target shares (TGT) rose as the discount retailer forecast a modest sales bounce and better-than-expected profit for this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塔吉特（Target）股票（TGT）上涨，因为这家折扣零售商预测今年销售将小幅反弹，利润超出预期。</p>
</div><p>Best Buy stock (BBY) is soaring despite disappointing outlooks as profit jumped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管前景令人失望，但百思买（Best Buy）股票（BBY）仍在飙升，因为利润大幅增长。</p>
</div><p>MongoDB shares (MDB) are sinking after disappointing guidance from the database-software group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MongoDB（MDB）股票在数据库软件集团发布令人失望的指引后下跌。</p>
</div><p>CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Ross Stores (ROST) will report after the close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CrowdStrike（CRWD）和 Ross Stores（ROST）将在收盘后发布财报。</p>
</div><p>Blackstone (BX) reported heavy outflows from its flagship private-capital fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黑石（Blackstone）（BX）报告其旗舰私募资本基金出现大量资金流出。</p>
</div><p>Amazon Web Services (AMZN) said three ?facilities ?in ?the United Arab Emirates and ?Bahrain were damaged by drone strike, and warned of prolonged disruption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊网络服务（Amazon Web Services）（AMZN）表示，阿联酋和巴林的三处设施因无人机袭击受损，并警告可能会出现长期中断。</p>
</div><p>New York Fed President John Williams is due to make remarks at 9:55 a.m., one of a trio of regional Fed speakers due to speak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）定于上午 9:55 发表讲话，他是三位地区联储发言人之一。</p>
</div><p>Best of the web</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>网络热点</p>
</div><p>Gulf states in race against time to repel Iran's onslaught.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海湾国家在与伊朗的攻击中争分夺秒。</p>
</div><p>OpenAI's Sam Altman says he made a 'sloppy' mistake in Pentagon deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 的 Sam Altman 表示，他在五角大楼交易中犯了一个 “粗心” 的错误。</p>
</div><p>Kevin Warsh's push to shrink Federal Reserve's balance sheet would evolve slowly .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）推动缩减美联储资产负债表的计划将缓慢演变。</p>
</div><p>The chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表</p>
</div><p>Inflation is a growing problem, driven by AI demand for power and resources, says Citadel Securities' head of EMEA fixed income sales, Nohshad Shah. In a blog post, he discusses the impact on various commodities from the AI capex boom, such as surging electricity demand tightening energy markets. AI demands are also hitting other hardware markets, forcing up device prices for example. Shah added that markets and the Fed fail to understand that interest rates may need to be much higher to cope with those pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Citadel Securities 的 EMEA 固定收益销售负责人 Nohshad Shah 表示，通货膨胀问题日益严重，受到人工智能对电力和资源需求的推动。在一篇博客文章中，他讨论了人工智能资本支出繁荣对各种商品的影响，例如，电力需求激增使能源市场紧张。人工智能的需求也影响了其他硬件市场，导致设备价格上涨。Shah 补充说，市场和美联储未能理解，利率可能需要大幅提高以应对这些压力。</p>
</div><p>Top tickers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>热门股票</p>
</div><p>These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch at 6 a.m.:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些是 MarketWatch 在早上 6 点的热门搜索股票：</p>
</div><p>Random reads</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随机阅读</p>
</div><p>AI ate her inbox. &#34;Rookie mistake&#34; from Meta's director of AI safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能占据了她的收件箱。Meta 的人工智能安全主管的 “新手错误”。</p>
</div><p>Tiny dog on the loose holds up San Francisco trains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一只小狗在街上游荡，导致旧金山的列车停运。</p>
</div><p>In the mail. Genius flight-luggage hack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>邮件中。天才的行李处理技巧。</p>
</div><p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-芭芭拉·科尔梅耶尔</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（结束）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>03-03-26 0906ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>03-03-26 0906ET</p>
</div>

这位能源行业专家警告称，即便伊朗冲突明天结束，全球经济仍将面临难以估量的损害