---
title: "Inflation expectations rise, market bets on interest rate cuts cool down"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277658434.md"
description: "As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran leads to rising energy prices, traders have raised inflation expectations and lowered bets on interest rate cuts. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate is 2.535%, up from 2.458% last week but down from 2.567% a month ago. The market's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates two times or more this year has decreased from 79% to 57%"
datetime: "2026-03-03T17:07:18.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277658434.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277658434.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277658434.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277658434.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277658434.md)


# Inflation expectations rise, market bets on interest rate cuts cool down

As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran leads to rising energy prices, traders have raised inflation expectations and **lowered bets on interest rate cuts**.

According to Tradeweb data, in recent trading, the **5-year breakeven inflation rate** (calculated from the difference between the yields of inflation-protected Treasury bonds and regular Treasury bonds, representing annual inflation expectations) was **2.535%**.

This level is higher than last Friday's **2.458%**, but lower than the year-to-date high of **2.567%** set a month ago.

Interest rate futures data shows that the market's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates **twice or more (by 25 basis points each time)** this year has dropped from **79%** last Friday to **57%**.

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