--- title: "European Natural Resources Fund: Escalation of Middle East Conflict Affects Logistics, Helping Gold Prices Break Free from 5000 Resistance" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277741372.md" description: "Li Gangfeng, an analyst at the European Natural Resources Fund, pointed out that the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has led to a significant rise in global oil prices, which has also affected gold prices, potentially breaking through the resistance level of $5,000. He believes that the sharp rise in gold prices in the short term will bring profit opportunities to the West. Li Gangfeng expects the reasonable price level for gold to be $5,000 plus $200-$300, but cautions that high inflation may impact expectations for interest rate cuts in the United States" datetime: "2026-03-04T07:37:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277741372.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277741372.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277741372.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277741372.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277741372.md) # European Natural Resources Fund: Escalation of Middle East Conflict Affects Logistics, Helping Gold Prices Break Free from 5000 Resistance According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Li Gangfeng, a special analyst for the European Natural Resources Fund Commodity Discovery, stated that just last weekend, the United States and Israel jointly attacked Iran, resulting in the death of the latter's supreme leader. However, Trump indicated that the actions would continue until "strong objectives" are achieved, suggesting that the conflict may last for several weeks. Iran has also retaliated by launching large-scale missile and drone attacks against Israel and other Middle Eastern countries such as Dubai. Multiple airports in the Middle East have closed, and global oil prices have surged significantly (Brent crude oil once rose by more than 14%). There were even rumors over the weekend that gold prices in China's dark market had reached nearly $6,000 – but Li Gangfeng believes that any sharp rise in gold prices over such a short period will become an opportunity for Western profits. Li Gangfeng stated that due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East in the short term (unlike the immediate end of the situation in Venezuela), it will provide support for commodities, estimating that the "reasonable price" of gold is about $5,000 plus $200-300. However, caution is needed as high inflation may lead to renewed pessimism in the market regarding the timeline for U.S. interest rate cuts. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/7da79bde3c1dfece169f55d7fef126f1.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/080b75560bef5b1e896d23ffc21a4e9b.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Data Source: CFTC/LSEG Workspace \*For comparison purposes, the metal equivalent of COMEX gold is divided by 10, and the metal equivalent of COMEX silver is divided by 100. \*\*Currently, the reference for Nymex palladium is very low. As of February 24, all U.S. futures metals funds, except for copper contracts, have seen a month-on-month increase in net longs, while palladium contracts have experienced two consecutive weeks of net short positions and have now been net long for the fourth consecutive week. The net long position of U.S. gold funds increased by 2% month-on-month to 381 tons, the highest level in the past four weeks; the net short position decreased by nearly 8% month-on-month to 70 tons, the lowest level in the past four weeks, resulting in a month-on-month increase of 4% in net longs to 311 tons, the highest level in the past four weeks. The net long position of silver funds increased by 18% month-on-month to 2,073 tons; the net short position increased by 4% month-on-month to 832 tons, resulting in a month-on-month increase of 30% in net longs to 1,241 tons, the highest level in the past five weeks. The net long position of platinum funds increased by 12% month-on-month to 21 tons; the net short position increased by 1% month-on-month to 14 tons. The net long position increased by 44% month-on-month to 7 tons, the highest level in the past five weeks. **Funds in U.S. futures gold have fallen 21% year-to-date (cumulative decline of 30% by 2025)** ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/113437d96cf076bc6a6ed4f8cb18b459.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Data Source: CFTC/LSEG Workspace **The net long position of funds in U.S. futures silver has dropped 52% year-to-date (cumulative drop of 1% in 2025)** ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3581dea6888a1d8ddc657dadfd4e8bcc.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Data Source: CFTC/LSEG Workspace **The net long position of funds in U.S. futures platinum has risen 16% year-to-date (turning from negative to positive in 2025)** ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6899a6f0d11baf8fc039eda33b7ccc19.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Data Source: CFTC/LSEG Workspace **The net long position of funds in U.S. futures copper has dropped 28% year-to-date (turning from negative to positive in 2025)** ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/17b3c907fa82195674af31e3352d2c01.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Data Source: CFTC/LSEG Workspace Despite the contraction in the net long position of gold fund contracts in the U.S. futures market in 2025, gold prices have still risen by 64.4%, reflecting that physical demand far exceeds that of the futures market, which is dragging down gold prices through leverage. In the past, funds controlled metal prices through the futures market; for instance, since the global pandemic began in 2020, the net long position of precious metals in the U.S. futures market has continuously declined, indicating that funds are intentionally preventing precious metals from rising. However, starting in the first quarter of this year, **futures funds began to close long positions to take profits, yet gold prices remained high, reflecting that physical demand far exceeds the leverage in the futures market.** The CFTC's weekly report on U.S. copper has been published since 2007. Due to the bear market in copper from 2008 to 2016, it is not surprising that most of the historical net positions in U.S. copper futures have been short. However, since 2020, due to the impact of the global pandemic on supply and mining operations, coupled with market expectations of strong demand for copper driven by AI and new technology developments, copper prices have risen, even reaching new historical highs. **In addition to gold's safe-haven attributes, geopolitical tensions may push up oil prices, and China's monopoly position in the supply of key materials such as rare earths, antimony, and tungsten is also expected to support its international prices (not domestic prices) to strengthen. Recently, the U.S. government not only invested in MP Materials but also signed a 10-year supply contract with them, with a minimum price nearly double that of China (USD 110 per kilogram) for purchasing neodymium and praseodymium. Stock prices surged on this news. Recently, there have been reports that the U.S. defense sector wants to acquire cobalt metals overseas.** **After the U.S. government invested in Lithium America and Trilogy Metals, providing funding for Nova Minerals, the stock prices of these companies surged.** Additionally, major gold producer Agnico Eagle announced that it will establish a new subsidiary with an investment of $130 million to focus on strategic resource-related projects. Li Gangfeng updated the indicators of gold prices to gold mining stocks, which have important implications for short-term gold prices. Last week, the ratio of U.S. dollar gold prices to North American gold mining stocks saw a decline: ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/d11891a8686c58bd306d00c20a623b5d.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Data Source: LSEG Workspace As of Friday (27th), the gold price/North American gold mining stock ratio was 11.219X, down 5.1% from 11.823X on the 20th, with a cumulative decline of 11% this year. When market sentiment towards metals is optimistic, mining stocks outperform physical gold; conversely, when sentiment turns pessimistic, physical gold outperforms. In 2025, there was a cumulative decline of 34.1%, with North American gold mining stocks outperforming physical gold. In 2024, there was a cumulative increase of 16.5%. In 2023, there was a cumulative increase of 13.2% (2022: +6.4%). For historical comparison, before 2008, the ratio of U.S. dollar gold prices to North American gold mining stock indices was below 6 times. In fact, since 2009/2010, the performance of mining stocks has consistently lagged behind the commodities themselves, and in recent years, even oil and natural gas production companies have shown similar trends. Li Gangfeng mentioned that one reason for this is the growing emphasis on environmental, social responsibility, and corporate governance (ESG) in the investment community. For example, in 2021, BlackRock committed to the UK Parliament not to invest in coal and oil production companies, and they are certainly not the only fund company that has pledged to invest only in companies and industries that place greater importance on ESG. Li Gangfeng believes that tracking overseas gold mining stock prices is a relatively reliable forward-looking tool; if gold prices continue to rise but gold mining stocks experience a sharp decline, caution is warranted. **Gold-Silver Ratio** The gold-silver ratio is one of the indicators measuring market sentiment. Historically, the gold-silver ratio has operated at levels of approximately 16-125 times: ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2204e5fdc8a223f3c8c1959f0b357b25.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Data Source: LSEG Workspace Generally, the more panic in the market, the higher the gold-silver ratio will be. For instance, in 2020, due to the global spread of COVID-19, the gold-silver ratio once surged past the historical high of 120 times. Silver is expected to rise by 147% in 2025. Last Friday, the gold-silver ratio index was 56.251, down 6.8% from the previous period, with a cumulative decline of 7.1% this year. In 2025, there was a cumulative decline of 33.4%, in 2024 a cumulative increase of 13.0%, and in 2023 a cumulative increase of 9.1% Platinum is expected to rise by 127% in 2025, but historically, one ounce of platinum could be exchanged for over 60 ounces of silver, while recently, one ounce of platinum can only be exchanged for 25.2 ounces of silver, which is at a historical low level (having fallen 31% from the peak in June 2025; the lower the ratio, the cheaper platinum is relative to silver), reflecting that platinum is currently the cheapest in history compared to silver. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/68c129adec206e3c5320cce461185089.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Image source: LSEG Workspace **Slight rebound in U.S. interest rate cuts in June** When Li Gangfeng wrote this, the market believed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 0.25% on March 18 was only 3.6%: ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6649c5e16b43c4f06aba05bd0641becc.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Image source: LSEG Workspace Currently, the market believes that the probability of a rate cut in April has risen from 16.9% two weeks ago to 20.9%; the probability of a rate cut in June has risen from 49.5% to the latest 51.9%. The probability of a rate cut in July has risen from 70.6% to 72.0%. The market is finally starting to consider how investors should deploy during the gap between the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December and the next potential rate cut. Why has the market once again delayed expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year? Firstly, the employment data released by the U.S. in January was stronger than expected – but this is a very funny logic – the U.S. Department of Labor just cut 1 million jobs from the projected new positions for 2025! Doesn't this mean that the market knows the data from the U.S. Department of Labor is unreliable, yet pretends to analyze the January employment data professionally? Therefore, the saying "the world is a makeshift stage" holds true! **So has the metal bull market come to an end? From a fundamental analysis:** The era of the U.S. as the global leader and world police has ended, replaced by a "Warring States era" of the survival of the fittest. This means that U.S.-China relations are unlikely to improve, and the previous era of globalization is gone forever. The market is only skilled at predicting the short-term interest rate trends of the Federal Reserve, while the accuracy for the long term (six months or more) is very poor. The recent pessimism in the market regarding the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts does not mean there will be no cuts this year. Where will global economic growth come from this year? Can the growth rate of the U.S. economy shift the market's focus back from U.S. debt to the growth sector? With foreign unemployment rates continuing to rise, coupled with U.S. inflation in December exceeding market expectations, who dares to say that the U.S. will not fall into stagflation? According to traditional wisdom, when the commodity market becomes a topic for most people, it often indicates that a bull market may soon come to an end. However, this time the situation may be completely different, as the global rules have undergone significant changes over the past few decades, evolving from globalization to the current leaderless "Warring States era." Therefore, the overall direction for commodities this year remains upward ### 相关股票 - [ChinaAMC CSI SH-SZ-HK Gold Industry Equity ETF (159562.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/159562.CN.md) - [Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AEM.US.md) - [Zijin Mining (601899.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/601899.CN.md) - [VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDX.US.md) - [ChinaAMC Gold ETF (518850.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/518850.CN.md) - [Sprott JR Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SGDJ.US.md) - [Newmont (NEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NEM.US.md) - [VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDXJ.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (RING.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/RING.US.md) - [Kinross Gold (KGC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/KGC.US.md) - [Sprott GLD Miners Etf (SGDM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SGDM.US.md) - [EFUND GOLD MI-U (09824.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/09824.HK.md) - [EFUND GOLD MI-R (82824.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/82824.HK.md) - [ZHONGJIN GOLD (600489.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600489.CN.md) - [Gold.com (GOLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOLD.US.md) - [SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GLD.US.md) - [SD-GOLD (600547.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600547.CN.md) - [YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF (GDXY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDXY.US.md) - [iShares Gold Trust (IAU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IAU.US.md) - [Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF (GDXW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDXW.US.md) - [EFUND GOLD MI ETF (02824.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02824.HK.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Major gold trade group releases framework for tokenized gold](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279887043.md) - [SNAPSHOT-Vietnam dong, gold rates - March 19](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279714508.md) - [Klondike Gold (CVE:KG) Trading Down 6.4% - Time to Sell?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279651800.md) - [Stakeholder Gold Closes Two Tranches of Flow-Through Financing | SKHRF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279845301.md) - [ROI-It’s time to rethink the safe-haven asset: McGeever](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280321235.md)