---
title: "Brent crude oil could exceed $100 if Strait of Hormuz closure persists - UBS"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277775262.md"
description: "UBS warns that Brent crude oil prices could exceed $100 if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues, raising their forecast for Brent to an average of $71 in Q1 2026. They highlight strong upside risks due to ongoing Middle East conflicts and potential strikes on energy infrastructure. While they acknowledge that a de-escalation could reverse the risk premium, they do not expect prices to drop below $60. Currently, the Strait is under a de facto closure due to threats of strikes, with very few tankers crossing."
datetime: "2026-03-04T12:00:08.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277775262.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277775262.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277775262.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277775262.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277775262.md)


# Brent crude oil could exceed $100 if Strait of Hormuz closure persists - UBS

To be fair, this is a call that many analysts were priming since the weekend already. So, UBS is very much just piling on top of that in arguing for strong upside risks to the oil market if the Middle East conflict carries on for much longer.

Of note, the firm is now raising its forecast for Brent crude oil to average about $71 in Q1 2026. That roughly implies their March forecast of around $80 for the commodity. Meanwhile, they're also raising their 2026 average to $72. That reflects a $10 premium to what they were forecasting before the US-Iran conflict.

UBS argues that the risk for oil prices is to the upside "on a structurally higher risk premium". Adding that "potential strikes on energy infrastructure such as on Qatar LNG could push Brent up to $90+, depending on the severity of the strikes".

As for the case of seeing triple-digit oil prices, the firm notes that:

_"If the close of the Strait of Hormuz extends beyond the next couple of weeks, Brent could see further upside of \>$100."_

That being said, they are warning that a de-escalation in the coming days could see that risk premium for oil prices reverse. However, it would not result in Brent prices falling all the way back down to ~$60 in their view.

As mentioned earlier, the Strait of Hormuz is not officially closed per se. However, the threat of IRGC strikes on any tankers passing through is enough to place the passage way under a de facto closure at the moment.

According to Kpler data, there has just been three oil and gas tankers that have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since Monday. There are vessels on either side of the strait but no one is willing to go through it.

### 相关股票

- [Invesco Great Wall CNI Oil&Gas ETF (159588.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/159588.CN.md)
- [ISHRS S&P Glb Engy (IXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IXC.US.md)
- [Us Brent Oil (BNO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BNO.US.md)
- [VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OIH.US.md)

## 相关资讯与研究

- [Front-month Brent oil futures extend gains after record monthly rise in March](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281273077.md)
- [Brent, U.S. crude futures pare losses marginally despite larger-than-expected build in US crude oil stocks last week](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281388617.md)
- [Viking Announces Float Out of Newest Nile River Ships](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281374904.md)
- [Three Chinese Ships 'Successfully' Make Strait of Hormuz Transit, Foreign Ministry Says](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281363134.md)
- [LNG tanker with a massive hole](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281510100.md)