---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together as safe-haven demand cools and the dollar slightly retreats; Broadcom announces earnings after hours"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277776174.md"
description: "U.S. stock index futures all rose, risk aversion demand cooled, and the dollar slightly retreated. Nasdaq futures rose by 0.06%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.14%, and Dow futures rose by 0.24%. The dollar index fell by 0.24%, and spot gold rose by more than 2%. Goldman Sachs CEO warned that the market has not fully priced in the impact of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and the market reaction has been relatively mild"
datetime: "2026-03-04T12:13:00.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277776174.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277776174.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277776174.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277776174.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277776174.md)


# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together as safe-haven demand cools and the dollar slightly retreats; Broadcom announces earnings after hours

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  As of March 4th (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Nasdaq futures are up 0.06%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.14%, and Dow futures are up 0.24%.

![11.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260304/1772625956311085.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.63%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.65%, the French CAC40 index is up 1.03%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 1.65%.

![12.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260304/1772625960353124.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.80%, priced at $75.16 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.55%, priced at $82.66 per barrel.

![13.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260304/1772625965490186.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**Safe-haven demand cools, and the dollar retreats from a three-month high.** The dollar fell back after reaching a three-month high on Tuesday. The previous rise in the dollar was mainly driven by inflows into safe-haven assets and rising oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar stated in a report that Trump's proposal to provide insurance for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, along with Gulf countries potentially taking countermeasures against Iran, boosted market sentiment, leading to hopes that the war might end sooner. As of the time of writing, the dollar index (DXY) is down 0.24% to 98.82. Meanwhile, spot gold is up over 2%, priced at $5,194 per ounce; spot silver is up over 5%, priced at $86.28 per ounce.

**Is the stock market correction not over yet? Goldman Sachs CEO warns that the market has not truly priced in the "cost of war."** Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon expressed surprise at the relatively "mild" response of global financial markets to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, adding that it will take several weeks to gain a better understanding of the confrontation between the U.S. and Israel with Iran that affects the entire Middle East. Therefore, the market will also need more than a week to digest all the negative shockwaves. Solomon stated, "I was surprised by the market's reaction recently. The market response has been relatively mild." He cited the latest closing data, noting that the S&P 500 index fell less than 1% on Monday and Tuesday, which is quite mild in the context of a new round of geopolitical conflicts. Meanwhile, due to concerns that the war will lead to rising oil prices, causing global inflation to rise again and fears of a monetary tightening cycle, traders are significantly lowering their expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is also the core logic behind the large-scale sell-off in U.S. stocks on Tuesday **Don't count on Trump to save the market anymore! Wall Street warns: He can't control the situation this time.** Wall Street strategists are warning against relying on the so-called "Trump put option" in the face of the situation in Iran. The military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have plunged the Middle East into turmoil and could bring new inflationary shocks to the U.S. economy by pushing up oil prices. Currently, there is no conclusion on when and how this conflict will end, increasing the risk of a prolonged conflict and potentially bringing unforeseen consequences for the White House. Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield believes that regardless of how quickly the conflict ends, the risk of widespread damage to oil infrastructure in the Middle East will prolong the market's impact from the conflict. Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical and U.S. political strategist at BCA Research, stated that the White House will only feel real pressure when there is a risk of a "market-induced recession," meaning a stock market decline of about 10% to 15%. John Briggs, head of U.S. rates at French bank Natixis, believes that only when bond yields rise to a level that "causes chaos and spreads to the credit and stock markets" might it prompt Trump to try to withdraw from the conflict.

**Is it time to buy the dip in U.S. stocks? Deutsche Bank warns: Be careful of buying halfway up the mountain!** As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalates, investors are wondering whether the "buy the dip" strategy will still work this time. Deutsche Bank believes that the key question this week is whether oil and gas prices will soar to a level that hinders economic growth, thereby undermining the recovery trade. Strategist Henry Allen stated, "We have previously written that geopolitical events typically do not lead to sustained market reactions. However, an exception occurs when geopolitical events have macro channels that impact the market. The situation in Iran is a typical example." This strategist indicated that at least one of the following three conditions needs to be met: oil prices soar by at least 50% to 100% and remain high for several months; rising oil prices push an already cooling economy into recession or severe slowdown; central banks adopt hawkish policies in response to rising oil prices, which could lead to a drop of over 15% in the S&P 500 index.

**AI panic looming! As "AI disrupts everything" hits software stocks hard, Wall Street no longer believes in the "buyback faith."** Amid several months of declining markets, U.S. software companies have significantly increased the scale of their stock buyback plans and accelerated their buyback pace. Compared to the same period last year, the actual stock buyback scale indicated by buyback announcements in the industry has nearly quadrupled, but some institutional investors and Wall Street strategists continue to question the resilience of the buyback-driven short-term rebound, believing that the momentum from stock buybacks is insufficient to prevent this round of severe market sell-off, and after experiencing a slight and short-term rebound from buybacks, the market may continue to head towards a new bear market cycle under the pessimistic narrative of "AI disrupts everything." Investors urgently need software companies to deliver strong growth performance under the unprecedented AI wave—this growth rate needs to prove that cutting-edge AI technology is a revenue-generating tool for the software company, rather than a "profit terminator." **Middle East conflict burns economic "confidence"! Kashkari of the Federal Reserve urgently calls: The outlook for monetary policy has become completely unclear.** Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari stated that the escalating conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook, making it more difficult to predict the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and interest rate direction. As a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year, Kashkari indicated that he originally expected inflationary pressures to continue to ease by 2026, creating conditions for the Federal Reserve to implement a rate cut. Now, when discussing monetary policy, he stated: "We need to observe this new shock—possibly a new variable impacting the global economy—how long its effects will last and how deep they will be." He pointed out that the impact of such geopolitical conflicts on inflation is difficult to predict, which is why he needs to wait for subsequent data before making a judgment.

**Tom Lee sounds the counterattack horn: The most severe sell-off will end this week, and March will be the "rebound month" for tech stocks and crypto assets.** Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat, known as the "Wall Street oracle," stated that despite recent pressures on global markets from geopolitical situations and prior technical corrections, cryptocurrencies, the software sector, and the tech giants collectively known as "MAG-7" will see a recovery this month—they have either already bottomed out or are about to reach their lows. In an interview, Lee said: "I believe the most intense phase of the sell-off will end this week. I expect the stock market to rise in March."

## Individual Stock News

**"Tesla superfan" shareholder buys 1 million shares of Nvidia (NVDA.US), supporting AI as non-bubble!** Billionaire Leo KoGuan, who became one of Tesla's largest individual shareholders a few years ago, stated that he purchased 1 million shares of Nvidia stock on Tuesday. He posted on social media: "I am confident that artificial intelligence is not a bubble; it is just the beginning. I plan to buy more Nvidia stock soon to soothe the nervous market."

**Apple (AAPL.US) M5 chip performance skyrockets, driving price increases across the MacBook line, with local AI becoming a new selling point for hardware.** Apple has released new MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models equipped with its latest M5 chip and updated the Studio Display product line, marking the largest update to Mac products in over a year. This move provides Apple with a new opportunity to revitalize Mac demand while also broadly demonstrating that more AI work will shift to local devices rather than just the cloud. These new product launches come at a critical time for Apple's Mac business. In last year's holiday quarter, Mac sales fell nearly 7% to $8.39 billion, far below analysts' expectations of nearly $9 billion. These new models are designed to attract users to upgrade, especially those still using older Intel chip systems or early M-series devices. However, the prices of the new products have also risen significantly. Due to memory suppliers favoring the more profitable AI data center market over consumer hardware, memory supply has tightened, driving up costs **Intel (INTC.US) Personnel Shake-up: 17-Year Veteran Jerry Retirement, Chip Industry Veteran Barrett Takes Over as Chairman.** Intel announced that long-serving Chairman Frank Jerry plans to retire, marking the latest personnel change at the once-dominant U.S. chip manufacturer as CEO Pat Gelsinger seeks to reshape the company. Current board member and seasoned chip industry executive Craig Barrett will succeed Jerry as chairman after the company's annual shareholder meeting in May. Seaport Securities analyst Jay Goldberg stated, "I think his departure was long overdue. During Jerry's tenure on the board, Intel made many poor decisions." Additionally, three former Intel executives noted that replacing investor and corporate advisor Jerry with an experienced semiconductor industry executive is a welcome move.

**Not Disrupted by AI, but Harnessing AI! Cybersecurity Giant CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) Exceeds All Performance Expectations.** Fiscal Year 2026 Q4 results showed that CrowdStrike's total revenue for the quarter grew 23% year-over-year to $1.305 billion, slightly above the market expectation of $1.3 billion. Subscription revenue reached approximately $1.242 billion, also up 23% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.12, better than the market expectation of $1.10. As of January 31, 2026, the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew significantly by 24% year-over-year to $5.25 billion, with $330.7 million being new net ARR added in Q4—a record 47% year-over-year growth, far exceeding the market expectation of about $300 million. Furthermore, the company provided guidance for Q1 and full-year fiscal year 2027 that was better than market expectations. This latest performance and guidance clearly undermine the extreme pessimistic narrative that "AI will quickly disrupt cybersecurity software."

**"Cost Performance" Becomes the Main Line of Consumption! Discount Retail Giant Ross Stores (ROST.US) Achieves Record Q4 Sales, Annual Performance Guidance Exceeds Expectations.** The financial report showed that the company's same-store sales in Q4 grew by 9%, far exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.03%; earnings per share reached $2, also higher than the market expectation of $1.90; sales hit a historic high of $6.64 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $6.4 billion. Looking ahead, the company expects same-store sales growth in the new fiscal year to be between 3% and 4%, with the median forecast above analysts' average expectation of 3.05%. This indicates that even amid macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer demand for its discounted apparel and accessories will remain strong. Meanwhile, the discount retailer also announced a new stock repurchase plan of up to $2.55 billion for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. As of the time of publication, Ross Stores' stock rose over 7% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing Time 23:00 U.S. February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI At 03:00 Beijing time the next day, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.

At 05:00 Beijing time the next day, the U.S. Senate will hold its first vote on the Iran "War Powers Resolution."

## Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Broadcom (AVGO.US)

Thursday pre-market: Kroger (KR.US), Global Ship Lease (GSL.US), JD.com (JD.US), Bilibili (BILI.US), Hutchison China MediTech (HCM.US), Gaotu (GOTU.US), Tuniu (TOUR.US)

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