--- title: "Oracle Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Larry Ellison Say?" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278597892.md" description: "Oracle's upcoming earnings call is highly anticipated, with prediction markets indicating a 77% chance of beating EPS expectations. However, concerns over debt and backlog persist, and the stock may still drop despite a potential earnings beat. Traders are focused on specific terms likely to be mentioned, particularly regarding Oracle's relationship with OpenAI and the stalled Stargate venture. Analysts have recently lowered price targets, and the call is expected to reveal insights into Oracle's competitive positioning in the market." datetime: "2026-03-10T17:46:10.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278597892.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278597892.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278597892.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278597892.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278597892.md) # Oracle Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Larry Ellison Say? Prediction market traders are putting real money on what **Larry Ellison** and his team will say on **Oracle Corp.’s** (NYSE:ORCL) fiscal third-quarter earnings call at 4:05 p.m. ET today, and the contract list reads like a cheat sheet for what Wall Street actually cares about tonight. ## What The Money Says **Polymarket** traders are pricing a 77% chance Oracle beats the $1.71 EPS consensus. That contract may well resolve “Yes” and the stock could still drop. Oracle has beaten EPS in eight of 10 quarters, but the stock fell 10.83% the day after last quarter’s report because it missed on revenue. **Kalshi** has a market where traders are predicting what specific words will be used in the earnings call after the bell. The most telling signal may be the gap between “**OpenAI**” at 92% and “Stargate” at 64%. Traders are saying Oracle will almost certainly talk about the OpenAI relationship but may dodge the Stargate brand name that’s been in negative headlines recently. The $500 billion Stargate venture, announced at the White House in January 2025 alongside **SoftBank** and Oracle, has effectively stalled, with no dedicated team, no clear operational role, and disagreements over leadership and financial responsibility leaving the partnership gridlocked. Meanwhile, OpenAI has locked in a separate $30 billion-per-year deal with Oracle for 4.5 gigawatts of capacity, effectively building its compute footprint outside the Stargate framework. “Backlog” is at 90%, up 14 points. Oracle’s remaining performance obligations hit $523 billion last quarter, up 438% year-over-year, but the company has missed analyst revenue estimates in eight of the last 10 quarters. The backlog is enormous. Whether it’s converting is the question. “Debt” is at 86%. Total debt has climbed past $124 billion and free cash flow has gone negative to fund the AI buildout. Multiple analysts slashed price targets this week, with **Barclays** cutting from $310 to $230 and **Deutsche Bank** from $375 to $300. “Hyperscaler” at 77% is worth watching. Oracle has positioned OCI as the scrappy alternative to AWS and Azure, but Stargate-scale capex on a non-hyperscaler balance sheet is the core bear case. Whether Ellison embraces or avoids that framing may signal how he sees Oracle’s competitive identity going forward. ## Reading The Board Prediction markets are making one thing clear: tonight's call is less about the numbers and entirely about the narrative. While a standard EPS beat appears largely priced in, the real volatility lies in the subtext. Investors won’t just be looking at the top and bottom lines at 4:05 p.m. ET; they'll be listening closely to how Ellison handles the “Stargate” elephant in the room. If he ducks the hard questions on capex and lost data center deals, even a perfect earnings beat might not save the stock from a post-market slide. _Image: Shutterstock_ ### 相关股票 - [Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF (ORCX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ORCX.US.md) - [SPDR S&P Software (XSW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XSW.US.md) - [iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IGV.US.md) - [Oracle (ORCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ORCL.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Oracle Begins Employee Layoffs to Reduce Costs](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281216945.md) - [BayBridge Capital Group LLC Makes New $809,000 Investment in Oracle Corporation $ORCL](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281614769.md) - [Oracle Targets Restaurant Industry With New AI Back Office Solution](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281171606.md) - [Here's the severance package Oracle offered laid-off US employees](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281231959.md) - [Oracle stock slips despite layoff reports: here's why](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281396219.md)