--- title: "Antique 升级了 GAIL；在西亚战争背景下，预计上游和石油营销公司（OMCs）有上涨空间" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279197286.md" description: "Antique Stock Broking 将 GAIL (India) Ltd. 的评级从 “持有” 上调至 “买入”，原因是股票价格出现了显著的修正，尽管对其目标价格的影响有限。该券商对上游石油公司和石油营销公司（OMCs）持乐观态度，但对城市燃气分销公司则持负面看法。他们预测 FY27 年原油价格平均为每桶 80 美元，ONGC 的 EBITDA 可能增长 30%，而印度石油公司（Oil India）的 EBITDA 可能增长 28%。OMCs 面临短期亏损，但预计将通过政府干预恢复。GAIL 的目标价格定为每股 ₹172，显示出 16% 的上涨空间" datetime: "2026-03-15T19:29:59.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279197286.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279197286.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279197286.md) --- # Antique 升级了 GAIL；在西亚战争背景下，预计上游和石油营销公司（OMCs）有上涨空间 Antique Stock Broking turned positive on upstream oil companies and oil marketing companies (OMCs), while maintaining a negative view on city gas distribution (CGD) companies amid structural margin pressures and the ongoing phase-out of APM gas. The brokerage also upgraded GAIL (India) Ltd. to 'Buy' from 'Hold', citing the sharp correction in the stock price despite a relatively limited impact on its target price. According to Antique, the recent correction in downstream stocks appears excessive compared with the potential impact from the ongoing West Asia conflict, while upstream companies, the biggest beneficiaries of higher crude prices, have not responded meaningfully and continue to trade at a discount to sustainable valuations. The brokerage's stress case assumes crude averaging $90 per barrel in the first half of FY27 and $70 per barrel in the second half, implying a full-year average of about $80 per barrel if the conflict persists for six months. Crude prices may remain firm due to low inventories ahead of the peak driving season between July and September, though Antique does not expect prices to sustainably breach $90 per barrel unless major oil and gas infrastructure becomes a target. Antique estimates that FY27 Ebitda could rise by about 30 per cent for Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) and 28 per cent for Oil India Ltd. However, their stocks still trade 4-6 per cent below pre-war levels, implying crude assumptions of only about $52 per barrel for ONGC and $47 per barrel for Oil India. The brokerage said the removal of windfall tax risk through the Oilfields Amendment Bill, 2024, along with a production upcycle, makes valuations attractive for upstream companies. ### Oil and Gas stocks in focus For OMCs, including Indian Oil Corp Ltd. (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd. (HPCL) near-term pressure stems from elevated retail auto-fuel losses, which stood at about ₹31 per litre in March 2026 to date. If crude sustains near $80 per barrel with frozen pump prices, losses could average around ₹2.7 per litre, assuming normalised refining cracks, Antique said. However, analysts believes such losses are unlikely to persist beyond two quarters, as government intervention through excise duty cuts or retail price hikes would likely restore margins. With OMC stocks already correcting 15-16 per cent, the brokerage believes most risks are priced in. For GAIL, Antique estimates that under a six-month LNG supply disruption scenario, FY27 Ebitda could fall to about ₹9,600 crore from ₹15,000 crore, reflecting both volume and margin pressures across transmission and trading businesses. Antique noted that GAIL’s stock has fallen about 13 per cent from pre-war levels, compared with only about a 5 per cent implied downside to its target price. "With this sharp correction, valuations have turned attractive," the brokerage said, upgrading the stock to 'Buy' with a target price of ₹172 per share, implying around 16 per cent upside. Among gas companies, the impact is mixed. Petronet LNG Limited may face temporary volume disruptions due to LNG supply constraints, while companies such as GAIL and city gas distributors could see broader pressure from LNG shortages, margin compression and structural headwinds from the gradual phase-out of APM gas allocations. **_\==========_** **_(Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by the analysts in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.)_** ### 相关股票 - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XES.US.md) - [NDIA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NDIA.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IXC.US.md) - [IND.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IND.US.md) - [OILK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OILK.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XOP.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OXY.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VDE.US.md) - [603353.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/603353.CN.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OIH.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEO.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USO.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLE.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UCO.US.md) - [IFN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IFN.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [油价逼近上调红线，5 月 21 日或迎今年第八涨](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287157440.md) - [中东局势高度紧张之际油价上涨](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287285878.md) - [伊朗战事重塑预期，华尔街百元油价已成共识！但 “需求破坏” 与 “库存告急” 拉扯出天花板悬念](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287181161.md) - [操纵油价，特朗普有一套！](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287134089.md) - [三艘超级油轮突破封锁，成功穿越霍尔木兹海峡](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287110520.md)