--- title: "Tesla Stock's Bear Market Just Got A Dangerous New Twist: Q1 Deliveries Could Deepen The Damage" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279465055.md" description: "Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is currently in a bear market, with its stock down over 20% from its December peak. Prediction markets indicate that Q1 deliveries may add further downside pressure, with a 340,000-unit delivery outcome expected to be the weakest since mid-2022. This could lead to estimate cuts and deepen the stock's decline. The market is concerned about operational momentum rolling over, which could trigger a negative feedback loop of downgrades and further stock price drops. As of the latest update, Tesla shares were up 0.26% at $396.53." datetime: "2026-03-17T16:14:57.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279465055.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279465055.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279465055.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279465055.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279465055.md) # Tesla Stock's Bear Market Just Got A Dangerous New Twist: Q1 Deliveries Could Deepen The Damage **Tesla Inc.'**s (NASDAQ:TSLA) latest slide has pushed the stock into a textbook bear market, and prediction markets now suggest Q1 deliveries could add fresh downside pressure rather than relief. - _TSLA stock is moving._ See the chart and price action here.  ## Tesla Bear Market The EV company’s shares are more than 20% below its late‑December peak. This satisfies the technical rule of a bear market for an individual stock.​ The drawdown comes despite the stock still being up strongly over the past 12 months, which can make the current pain feel sharper for recent buyers who chased the rally.​ The chart below shows Tesla’s stock performance over the past year: ![TSLA 1-year price action chart with moving average overlays](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17114727/TSLA-price-moving-averages-chart-1024x701.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Kalshi Flags Weak Q1 On prediction platform Kalshi, traders are currently pricing a contract on "Tesla deliveries this quarter – 340,000 or more" around the low‑50% probability range, implying the market sees roughly even odds Tesla only just clears that bar.​ Separate Kalshi contracts on Tesla production this quarter show the highest confidence clustered in relatively modest ranges, reinforcing the idea that expectations have been ratcheted down from last year's levels. ## Why 340K Would Sting A 340,000‑unit delivery outcome would be the weakest since mid‑2022, marking a step-down from the roughly 380,000–390,000 units Tesla was putting up in stronger quarters and signaling that the once‑relentless growth engine is sputtering.​ With Street models still generally assuming a re‑acceleration later this year, such a soft print would likely force estimate cuts, pressuring Tesla's already‑rich valuation multiple and deepening the stock's bear‑market skid.​ ## A Dangerous Twist The dangerous twist is that macro jitters and competition are no longer the only overhangs; now, forward‑looking "smart money" on Kalshi is effectively telegraphing that operational momentum itself may be rolling over in real time.​ If Tesla confirms something in line with—or worse than—the 340K band, the delivery miss narrative could harden, feeding a negative feedback loop of downgrades, sentiment damage and potentially another leg lower in the stock. **TSLA Stock Price:** Tesla shares were up 0.26% at $396.53 at the time of publication Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data. _This image was generated using artificial intelligence via Nano Banana 2._ ### 相关股票 - [GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares (TSLS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [T-Rex 2X Inverse Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [Tesla (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [GraniteShares 1.25 Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSL.US.md) - [Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (TESL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TESL.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [T-Rex 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF (TSLQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [Leverage Shares 2X Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TSLG.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Tesla’s sales recover slightly, but the trend lines are all bad](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281541012.md) - [Suspected Arson Destroys Tesla Showroom in Sydney, Police Launch Investigation](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281110273.md) - [Tesla, Inc. $TSLA Shares Sold by BTC Capital Management Inc.](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281321406.md) - [The Tesla Model S And Model X Are Officially Dead](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281317969.md) - [Tesla first-quarter deliveries are coming. 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