--- title: "Guolian Minsheng Securities: The Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates this year, and the impact of oil prices does not change the overall trend of rate cuts" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279691746.md" description: "Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of oil prices mainly reflects in the rhythm, which will not change the overall trend of rate cuts. The U.S. economy faces a deep \"K-shaped\" divergence; although overall resilience exists, the balance sheets of middle- and low-income groups have not been effectively repaired, limiting the foundation for inflation recovery. The rise in international oil prices brings inflation transmission risks, affecting Federal Reserve policy. Market expectations for the timing of rate cuts have been pushed to the fourth quarter, impacting the liquidity environment. Powell maintained a cautious and hawkish stance at the meeting, emphasizing the uncertainties of the Middle East situation and rising oil prices" datetime: "2026-03-19T00:21:57.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279691746.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279691746.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279691746.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279691746.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279691746.md) # Guolian Minsheng Securities: The Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates this year, and the impact of oil prices does not change the overall trend of rate cuts According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the core contradiction in the current round of U.S. inflation is that there is a lack of effective support on the demand side. The U.S. economy is currently in a deep "K-shaped" divergence pattern. Although overall economic resilience remains, the balance sheets of the majority of low- and middle-income groups have not been effectively repaired, which restricts the foundation for sustained inflation recovery and retains operational space for the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate cuts. The biggest potential risk point currently lies in the inflation transmission caused by rising international oil prices. The firm believes that the Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of oil prices is more reflected in the rhythm, which will not change the overall trend of rate cuts; although delayed, cuts will come. ## The main points of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows: **The sudden geopolitical storm has not only disrupted the Federal Reserve's policy rhythm but also caused global financial markets to become "tense" again.** Although as early as after the January interest rate meeting, the marginal stabilization of the labor market combined with low inflation levels had basically locked in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term wait-and-see stance, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the interest rate would remain unchanged at the March meeting. **However, the recent escalation of geopolitical risks related to Iran has undoubtedly "added fuel to the fire" in an already sensitive market liquidity environment.** The rapid rise in oil prices has directly exacerbated the dual risks of U.S. inflation rebound and economic slowdown, posing a severe challenge to the Federal Reserve's multiple goals of "controlling inflation and stabilizing growth," and continuously narrowing its policy tolerance space. Market expectations have also shifted from two rate cuts within the year to less than one, with the timing of cuts pushed to the fourth quarter, significantly affecting the short-term liquidity environment. **Therefore, compared to simple interest rate adjustments, the subsequent policy signals released at the March meeting are of greater significance. However, against the backdrop of high oil prices, Powell still maintained a cautious hawkish stance at the meeting.** Three core points are worth noting: **First, in terms of forward guidance,** **the policy statement modified its assessment of the economic outlook,** adding the expression "the impact of the evolving situation in the Middle East on the U.S. economy is still uncertain." Powell also continued to adopt a wait-and-see stance in his post-meeting speech, emphasizing the uncertainty brought by the short-term Middle East situation, as well as the dual risks of rising inflation and economic downturn caused by rising oil prices, stating that policy decisions should wait until the situation becomes clearer and inflation improves. **Second, the dot plot basically maintains the policy guidance from December last year,** **indicating that there is still one rate cut within the year,** but more voters have shown hawkish tendencies, with only Milan voting against at the March meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve officials' repricing of inflation risks. Some officials have also begun to discuss the possibility of interest rate hikes, but this is not included in the basic scenario assumptions. **Thirdly, economic forecasts have been revised upwards for 2026 in terms of economic growth and inflation rates,** with the PCE revised from the previous value of 2.4% to 2.7%, implying the Federal Reserve's deep concerns about the upward shift in the inflation baseline. However, the slight upward adjustment in economic growth indicates that "stagflation" is not the current baseline expectation for the economy by the Fed. **For the asset side, the strengthening of the Federal Reserve's policy determination in the short term may further exacerbate the risks of global liquidity tightening.** If the situation in the Middle East does not see substantial easing, the pattern of rising oil prices and the dollar may be difficult to reverse in the short term. **Combined with the continued delay in interest rate cut expectations and potential tightening of the liquidity environment (April TGA account may see a temporary replenishment, RMP operations may slow down), global major assets may face further pressure.** Overnight stocks, bonds, gold, and other assets are already facing adjustment pressures, and liquidity issues are gradually becoming apparent. Short-term operations should remain cautious and wait for clarity in the situation. **For the equity market,** high-valuation technology sectors (especially in the AI field, which is highly sensitive to discount rates and cash flows) may face valuation compression in the short term; while energy, utilities, and other inflation-resistant, defensive sectors are more likely to attract funding. **It is worth noting that** although gold is currently suppressed by a strong dollar and rising interest rates, its hedging value against geopolitical and inflation risks will continue to attract capital allocation in the medium to long term. As volatility returns to a reasonable range, gold is expected to usher in a new round of upward momentum. **Looking ahead, is there still a possibility of easing by the Federal Reserve? The institution believes there is still room for interest rate cuts this year.** The core contradiction in the current weak performance of U.S. inflation lies in the lack of effective support from the demand side. The U.S. economy is currently in a deep "K-shaped" divergence pattern; although overall economic resilience remains, the balance sheets of the majority of low- and middle-income groups have not been effectively repaired, which restricts the foundation for sustained inflation recovery and retains operational space for the Fed's future interest rate cuts. **Of course, the biggest potential risk point currently lies in the inflation transmission caused by the rise in international oil prices.** However, compared to the oil price shock in 2022, when the global economy was in a post-pandemic recovery phase, fiscal and monetary policies in Europe and the United States were working in tandem, and consumer demand was rapidly recovering, allowing the upstream oil price increase to be smoothly transmitted to refined oil, chemical products, and consumer and service terminals. **In the current relatively weak fundamental environment, the duration and diffusion of inflation compared to 2022 are expected to decline. From the current breakeven inflation rate, long-term inflation expectations remain relatively stable, with no significant signs of losing control, which further supports the judgment for interest rate cuts.** **In summary, the bank believes that there is still room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, and the impact of oil prices is more reflected in the rhythm, which will not change the overall trend of interest rate cuts; the cuts may be delayed but will eventually happen.** **Risk Warning:** Significant changes in U.S. economic and trade policies; unexpected spread of tariffs leading to greater-than-expected global economic slowdown and market adjustments; frequent geopolitical factors leading to increased global asset volatility; oil prices rising beyond expectations, putting the U.S. at risk of stagflation ### 相关股票 - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OXY.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [HSPC (603353.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/603353.CN.md) - [BP p.l.c. 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