---
title: "DWS: Still believes that the Federal Reserve will eventually further cut interest rates to a neutral level"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279713560.md"
description: "DWS believes that the Federal Reserve will ultimately further reduce interest rates to a neutral level, although the market may need to wait for some time. DWS Chief U.S. Economist Christian Scherrmann pointed out that the Federal Reserve kept the policy interest rate unchanged, but it was not a unanimous decision. Rising oil prices are expected to affect overall inflation, while the impact on core inflation will not be felt until 2026. Powell emphasized that inflation expectations are solid, planning to ignore the impact of rising energy prices and focus on price pressures related to tariffs. Overall monetary policy remains guided by the development of inflation expectations"
datetime: "2026-03-19T03:18:05.000Z"
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  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279713560.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279713560.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279713560.md)
---

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# DWS: Still believes that the Federal Reserve will eventually further cut interest rates to a neutral level

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Christian Scherrmann, Chief U.S. Economist at DWS, stated that as expected, the Federal Reserve kept the policy interest rate unchanged, but this decision was not unanimous, with Governor Milan voting in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut. **Currently, DWS still believes that the Federal Reserve will ultimately further cut rates to a neutral level, although the market may need to wait some time to see this happen.**

DWS noted that the FOMC press release emphasized the additional uncertainty brought about by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East. From the updated forecasts, the Federal Reserve expects that rising oil prices will primarily affect overall inflation while also having some impact on core inflation—although this effect will not be seen until 2026. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell later clarified that tariff impacts also contributed to these changes. Economic growth is expected to slightly strengthen in 2026, and this outcome is particularly noteworthy considering the potential impact of rising oil prices and the downward adjustment of economic growth momentum in 2025. **Despite rising inflation and strengthening economic growth, the dot plot still indicates a rate cut in 2026.**

At the press conference, Powell essentially adopted textbook central bank measures to respond to energy shocks. He emphasized that inflation expectations remain solid and hinted that the Federal Reserve plans to overlook the impact of rising energy prices. The focus will be on tariff-related price pressures, especially commodity inflation. Although he acknowledged that inflation may rise in the short term, he seemed optimistic that the impact of tariffs would begin to fade by mid-2026. He further stated that this remains a key condition for rate cuts, and the labor market will determine the extent of the eventual easing policy.

Regarding the issue of neutral interest rates, Powell reiterated that current rates are at the upper limit of the neutral range. He also unexpectedly spoke about succession issues, stating that if a successor has not been confirmed, he will continue to serve as interim chairman and remain on the board until the Department of Justice investigation is concluded.

DWS pointed out that **overall, the guiding principle of monetary policy remains the development of inflation expectations and the factors that may influence their trajectory.** Currently, central bank governors seem quite confident in this regard. The stubborn tariff-driven inflation and the impending effects of rising energy prices make this stance bold, perhaps reminiscent of past periods of complacency. History shows that the credibility of central banks is a key factor in anchoring inflation expectations. This may explain why Powell unexpectedly expressed confidence in his plan to remain in office for some time

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