---
title: "Macquarie expects ZTO Express to benefit from anti-involution measures that promote profitability improvement, raising the target price to $30.4"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279742530.md"
description: "Macquarie's research report points out that ZTO Express benefits from anti-involution policies, and it is expected that its performance will outperform the industry in 2026, driving improvements in profitability. The average revenue per package is expected to increase by 0.06 RMB, with a year-on-year sales growth of 13%. Adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 17% to 11 billion RMB. Macquarie has raised its net profit forecasts for ZTO for the next two years by 8% and 12%, with a target price increased from $26.6 to $30.4, maintaining a rating of \"Outperform.\""
datetime: "2026-03-19T07:37:47.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279742530.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279742530.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279742530.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279742530.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279742530.md)


# Macquarie expects ZTO Express to benefit from anti-involution measures that promote profitability improvement, raising the target price to $30.4

Macquarie's research report indicates that ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057.HK) will achieve performance at the high end of forecasts in the fourth quarter of 2025. Under the anti-involution policy and the growth of reverse logistics volume, the average revenue per package (ASP) maintains positive growth. The firm believes that ZTO will benefit from anti-involution measures, driving growth in 2026 to outpace the industry and improve profitability.

Looking ahead, Macquarie states that as the industry transitions to high-quality growth under the anti-involution policy entering 2026, ZTO, with its value positioning, will hold the best advantage and continue to outperform the market, further expanding its market share. It is expected that the average revenue per package will further increase by 6 cents RMB, while sales volume will grow by 13% year-on-year, translating to an adjusted net profit increase of 17% year-on-year to 11 billion RMB.

Macquarie has raised its net profit forecasts for ZTO for the next two years by 8% and 12%, respectively, to reflect updated business volume growth and profitability outlook. The target price for ZTO (ZTO.US) in the U.S. stock market has been raised from $26.6 to $30.4, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for 2026; the rating is "Outperform."

### 相关股票

- [ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02057.HK.md)

## 相关资讯与研究

- [CMB International Securities Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279735831.md)
- [DBS Sticks to Its Buy Rating for ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280503534.md)
- [Citi Sticks to Their Buy Rating for ZTO Express (ZTO)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279774562.md)
- [ZTO Express Publishes Unaudited 2025 Results and Warns on Industry Risks](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279499225.md)
- [Huachuang Securities Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279142367.md)