--- title: "European Central Bank officials signal an interest rate hike in April: The situation in Iran raises inflation expectations to 2.6%" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279859099.md" description: "European Central Bank officials stated that if the situation in Iran leads to inflation exceeding the 2% target, they will consider raising interest rates at the April meeting. The latest assessment has raised the inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.6%. Although no final decision has been made before the April meeting, an early rate hike may occur if a second-round effect of inflation emerges. Meanwhile, the eurozone's economic growth forecast has been downgraded from 1.2% to 0.9%. The market's expected probability of a rate hike in April has risen to about 60%" datetime: "2026-03-19T23:37:06.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279859099.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279859099.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279859099.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279859099.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279859099.md) # European Central Bank officials signal an interest rate hike in April: The situation in Iran raises inflation expectations to 2.6% According to the Zhitong Finance APP, in the context of escalating geopolitical turmoil, the European Central Bank (ECB) has significantly shifted its policy stance. According to informed sources, if the aftermath of the Iran war leads to inflation rates far exceeding the mid-term target level of 2%, decision-makers will be prepared to raise interest rates at the April meeting. Notably, the bank's latest assessment has raised the inflation forecast for 2026 from 1.9% to 2.6%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260320/1773962823308629.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The informed source stated that although no final decision has been made, if data before the April meeting shows signs of a second-round effect of inflation (i.e., when inflation shifts from "external input" to "internal self-circulation"), the ECB may have to raise interest rates in April rather than wait until June. It is understood that at the recently concluded monetary policy meeting in March 2026, the ECB chose to remain on hold as expected by the market, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2.00% and the main refinancing rate at 2.15%. However, the focus of internal discussions has shifted towards preventing a rebound in inflation. Officials expressed deep concerns about the potential "second-round effect" triggered by soaring energy costs, fearing that rising energy prices could transmit to wage agreements and broader service prices, thereby entrenching inflationary pressures within the Eurozone. As a result of this risk-averse sentiment, the ECB also lowered its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2026 from 1.2% to 0.9%, reflecting the dual impact of high inflation and geopolitical risks on economic recovery. Regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes, there are currently technical differences within the ECB. While some hawkish officials support decisive action at the meeting on April 29-30, others take a cautious stance, believing that due to the lack of the latest official quarterly forecast data at the April meeting, a decision may need to wait until June when more comprehensive economic indicators are available. However, this policy signal has triggered a chain reaction in the financial markets, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April rising from 50% to about 60%. The market expects that as attacks in the Gulf region drive up energy costs and potentially disrupt supply chains broadly, ECB officials will respond. The market has fully priced in expectations for at least two 25 basis point rate hikes this year. The ECB stated that if the situation in Iran deteriorates significantly, price increases could peak at 6.3% in the first quarter of 2027, and the economy in 2026 will experience a brief recession. Assuming no monetary or fiscal countermeasures, this outcome will be driven by multiple factors, including severe energy supply disruptions lasting until the end of 2026 and further significant damage to energy infrastructure. J.P. Morgan economist Greg Fuzesi now predicts that the ECB will raise interest rates in April and July. In a report to clients, he stated that the ECB has "turned hawkish." "The staff's forecasts have sent a very clear signal about the upside risks to mid-term inflation, both through higher baseline forecasts and additional upside risks from potential second-round effects." In addition, this potential shift by the European Central Bank is also in line with the monetary policy trends of major global economies. As the inflation threat brought about by the energy crisis becomes a global challenge, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have recently suspended their planned interest rate cuts and instead maintained high interest rate policies to respond to external shocks. If the European Central Bank initiates interest rate hikes in April, it will mark a formal shift in the Eurozone's policy focus from supporting growth to curbing input inflation triggered by geopolitical risks ## 相关资讯与研究 - [ECB preview: interest rates to remain unchanged with more emphasis on inflation risk](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279756401.md) - [Iran's Araqchi says no messages has been exchanged with the U.S.](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279240761.md) - [Israel claims another top Iranian official killed while Iran's attacks kill 2 near Tel Aviv](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279588836.md) - [U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: U.S. is not attacking Iran's energy infrastructure](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279786335.md) - [Coming up on The Weekend Show | Strikes on Iran Continue](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279306616.md)