--- title: "CITIC Construction Investment: After the US-Iran conflict, gold prices weakened; three factors to watch for the future direction of gold prices" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279861425.md" description: "CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report indicating that after the US-Iran conflict, gold prices weakened, mainly influenced by the rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Historical data shows that gold prices typically perform poorly after geopolitical conflicts and are positively correlated with US stocks, failing to provide effective protection. Future gold price trends need to pay attention to three factors: historical declines, stability in the US stock market, and the recovery of volatility. On March 19, gold prices fell over 5%, dropping below USD 4,600 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of over 10%" datetime: "2026-03-20T00:07:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279861425.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279861425.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279861425.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279861425.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279861425.md) # CITIC Construction Investment: After the US-Iran conflict, gold prices weakened; three factors to watch for the future direction of gold prices According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report stating that after the US-Iran conflict, gold prices have weakened, which can be understood from four dimensions. Historical experience shows that after the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, gold prices generally perform weakly, with declines even being the norm, while increases occur more often before the outbreak of conflicts; the hedging effect of gold against US stocks is not as strong as imagined. In fact, in recent years, gold prices have shown a high positive correlation with US stocks, and in the current context of falling US stocks, holding gold does not provide protection; in the short term, the rise of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields also exerts some pressure on gold prices; gold surged sharply at the beginning of the year, with volatility once soaring to historical highs, and short-term market sentiment towards it may be cautious. The subsequent turning point for gold prices can focus on three factors: (1) Referencing the historical extreme decline in gold prices after the Iran-Iraq War, there may still be a 5% downside; (2) Stability in US stocks lays the foundation for overall market sentiment recovery, which may require easing of the conflict; (3) Volatility continues to normalize. **CITIC Construction Investment's main viewpoints are as follows:** On March 19, gold prices fell more than 5%, dropping below $4,600 per ounce, continuing to weaken since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict. Gold has been one of the most outstanding assets in the past year, widely regarded as an excellent safe-haven asset and a beneficiary under the reshaping of the global landscape. However, since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, gold prices have cumulatively fallen over 10%. How should we understand the recent weakness of gold? **(1) Historical experience shows that after the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, gold prices generally perform weakly, with declines even being the norm, while increases occur more often before the outbreak of conflicts.** Contrary to intuition, geopolitical conflicts are not a favorable catalyst for gold prices. Reviewing significant historical geopolitical conflict events related to the Middle East, the results show: one month before the outbreak of conflicts, the probability of gold prices rising is relatively high, with an average increase of nearly 4%; however, in the three months following the outbreak of conflicts, the price movements of gold show significant variability, with no obvious upward trend, and the probability of a decline within one month is even higher, with average performance turning to a decline. If we examine the interval movements, similar characteristics can also be clearly observed: gold prices generally trend upwards before conflicts, but enter a period of fluctuation after the outbreak; in several conflicts more closely related to the Middle East situation, such as the Iraq War, overseas wars, the Iran-Iraq War, and the Russia-Ukraine War, gold prices have a higher probability of declining after the conflicts, with the decline after the Iran-Iraq War reaching 15%. The reasons for this may be twofold: first, after the outbreak of war, overall market risk appetite declines significantly, and liquidity shocks may occur, leading to gold being sold off; second, gold prices may have already risen before the outbreak of conflicts, with bullish factors being realized after the conflicts. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2f7ef4a52e650016f65362e561fc10dd.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **(2) The hedging effect of gold against US stocks is not as strong as imagined. In fact, in recent years, gold prices have shown a high positive correlation with US stocks, and in the current context of falling US stocks, holding gold does not provide protection.** The historical correlation between gold prices and the S&P 500 shows that they maintained a long-term negative correlation around 2013-2015, but over the past decade, this negative correlation has largely disappeared, gradually shifting to a predominantly positive correlation. Especially in 2025, the positive correlation between the two even approached 1. This means that when significant risks arise in the U.S. stock market, gold does not serve as a hedge. After the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, U.S. stocks and global stock markets faced significant pressure, which may also be one of the reasons why gold prices could not be catalyzed. The underlying logic may also stem from a liquidity perspective. When equities decline, overall liquidity tightens, and selling gold may be seen as a means to obtain liquidity. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6fd2cfd3d1505a095f563d61acf3af96.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **(3) In the short term, the rise of the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields also exerts some pressure on gold prices (though not necessarily the main logic)** Although the traditional logic of the U.S. dollar and interest rates cannot explain the gold trends of the past few years, it still has a certain impact within specific short-term windows. Recently, the U.S. dollar index has risen significantly, and U.S. Treasury yields are approaching previous highs, forming a clear bearish outlook for gold under traditional frameworks. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8a3e3ca3e7d831b0e3360d1b6a3ab0fd.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **(4) Gold surged sharply at the beginning of the year, with volatility once soaring to historical highs, and the market's sentiment towards it may be cautious in the short term** Gold prices were among the largest gainers and retracers at the beginning of the year, with volatility once reaching historical highs. Although it has since retreated, it remains significantly higher than at the end of last year, indicating that the market still has some divergence regarding its future trends. In the context of conflict, overall risk appetite is relatively weak, and the market's attitude towards it may be reserved. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/479aaeeafc68cce388003bd9fc3a6fbe.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **(5) Future outlook: Re-entering gold, three factors to watch** Since the long-term narrative logic of gold has not been falsified, the mid-term market still tends to be bullish. While maintaining caution in the short term, potential entry points can be monitored by tracking three factors: First, reference the historical extreme declines in gold prices after the Iran-Iraq War; there may still be about 5% downside potential; Second, stabilization of U.S. stocks lays the foundation for overall market sentiment recovery, which may require signs of easing in the conflict; Third, volatility continues to normalize ### 相关股票 - [SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GLD.US.md) - [Sprott GLD Miners Etf (SGDM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SGDM.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [Abrdn Gold ETF Trust (SGOL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [Pro Ultr GLD (UGL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UGL.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Invesco Db Precious Metals ETF (DBP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DBP.US.md) - [VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDXJ.US.md) - [VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDX.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (RING.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/RING.US.md) - [iShares Gold Trust (IAU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IAU.US.md) - [Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X (NUGT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NUGT.US.md) - [Direxion Daily Jr Gold Miners Bull 2X (JNUG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JNUG.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [U.S. commercial paper market shrinks in week-Fed](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279827159.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold firms as investors assess Middle East fallout ahead of policy decisions](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279360535.md) - [Almaden Minerals Files 2025 Audited Results, Wipes Out Gold Loan and Boosts Equity](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279844146.md) - [Can the SPDR Gold ETF Keep Climbing From Here?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279298031.md) - [US proposes easing limits on cancer-causing gas used to clean medical devices](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279081984.md)