--- title: "Fidelity International: If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, it may rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279893566.md" description: "Fidelity International pointed out that if the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year is almost eliminated. Currently, if oil prices remain between $90 and $110 per barrel, the Federal Reserve may extend the period of unchanged interest rates, but if oil prices exceed $120, it could lead to an increased risk of economic recession. Despite the strong momentum of global economic growth, Fidelity holds a positive view on the stock market and takes a constructive attitude towards government bonds" datetime: "2026-03-20T06:16:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279893566.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279893566.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279893566.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279893566.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279893566.md) # Fidelity International: If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, it may rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year According to Zhitong Finance APP, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate as expected by the market, keeping the federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75%. Fidelity International noted that the overall changes in the authorities' policy statement were limited, but it clearly pointed out that the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a simultaneous rise in the uncertainty of inflation and employment prospects. Max Stainton, Senior Global Macro Strategist at Fidelity International, stated that the key to this year's interest rate outlook will heavily depend on the situation in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices. In the baseline scenario, if oil prices remain in the higher range of $90 to $110 per barrel, the Federal Reserve may extend its period of inaction, raising the threshold for initiating interest rate cuts in the short term; however, this scenario is not sufficient to trigger a new round of interest rate hikes, as its drag on economic growth remains manageable, and the impact of oil prices on prices tends to be one-off. However, if oil prices further break above $120 per barrel and drive up transportation and commodity prices again, it will strengthen the policy stance of maintaining higher interest rates, while also increasing the risk of weakening demand or even economic recession in the second half of the year. Overall, if the baseline scenario develops as expected, the Federal Reserve may still cut rates once or twice this year. However, it is important to note that the situation in the Middle East is changing rapidly, and there have been signs of escalation after attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure. If this situation continues, the possibility of rate cuts this year is almost completely ruled out. Fidelity pointed out that the growth momentum of major global economies continues, with the U.S. performing particularly well. Driven by fiscal spending and AI investment demand, the growth momentum of the U.S. economy remains resilient. Overall, the global macro cycle is still in an expansion phase, but as geopolitical fragmentation and trade frictions intensify, economic divergences between regions are gradually widening. Against this backdrop, Fidelity maintains a positive outlook on the stock market and has shifted to a more constructive attitude towards government bonds. As inflation continues to cool and gradually comes under control, government bonds are showing a certain degree of diversification effect again; at the same time, in asset allocation, the importance of maintaining selectivity is still emphasized. As geopolitical tensions rise, short-term market volatility expectations will also increase, but from a medium to long-term perspective, long-term technological trends such as artificial intelligence, coupled with stable macro fundamentals, will remain key drivers of the stock market. With corporate fundamentals continuing to show resilience, investors can pursue stable total returns by positioning in high-quality global companies. On the other hand, considering the increased correlation between stocks and bonds, it is recommended to adopt a global balanced strategy that includes alternative assets and raw materials, allowing for more flexible participation in market opportunities ### 相关股票 - [VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OIH.US.md) - [Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/OXY.US.md) - [ISHRS S&P Glb Engy (IXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IXC.US.md) - [SPDR O&G Ex & Prd (XOP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XOP.US.md) - [SPDR Energy Select (XLE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLE.US.md) - [HSPC (603353.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/603353.CN.md) - [United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USO.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod (IEO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEO.US.md) - [BP p.l.c. 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