--- title: "The return of risk aversion combined with a reversal of interest rate cut expectations has led traders to turn bullish on the US dollar for the first time this year" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279999996.md" description: "Traders have turned bullish on the dollar for the first time this year, driven by safe-haven demand and changes in interest rate expectations. According to CFTC data, as of March 17, speculative funds have established approximately $6.2 billion in long dollar positions, reversing the bearish trend that had persisted since December of last year. The dollar index rose about 2% in March, marking the largest monthly increase since July of last year. Analysts point out that rising oil prices are exacerbating inflationary pressures, weakening expectations for interest rate cuts, and leading to capital inflows into the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Market expectations have also shifted, with traders beginning to bet that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates" datetime: "2026-03-20T23:25:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279999996.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279999996.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279999996.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279999996.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279999996.md) # The return of risk aversion combined with a reversal of interest rate cut expectations has led traders to turn bullish on the US dollar for the first time this year According to the latest data from the Zhitong Finance APP, traders have turned bullish on the US dollar for the first time this year, driven by safe-haven demand and changes in interest rate expectations. According to data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, as of March 17, hedge funds, asset management institutions, and other speculative funds have cumulatively established approximately $6.2 billion in long positions on the US dollar, reversing the bearish trend that has persisted since mid-December last year. Previously, in mid-February, short bets against the dollar had reached about $22 billion. This shift occurred within three weeks after the US launched military actions against Iran. The escalation of conflict has led to a continuous rise in international oil prices, driving up inflation expectations and strengthening the dollar. Data shows that since March, the US dollar index has cumulatively risen by about 2%, likely marking the largest monthly increase since July of last year. ![WeChat Screenshot_20260320171020.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260321/1774041150636448.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Analysts point out that the recent performance of the dollar shows a strong correlation with oil prices. On one hand, rising energy prices exacerbate inflationary pressures, weakening market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts; on the other hand, amid increased volatility in global markets, funds are flowing back into the dollar as a high liquidity safe-haven asset. A strategist at BMO Asset Management stated that in the face of sudden shock events, investors often quickly reduce risk exposure, "which means closing out dollar short positions," while the liquidity and safe-haven attributes of the dollar further enhance its attractiveness. At the same time, views among Wall Street institutions have also shown a clear shift. JP Morgan strategists have recently turned bullish on the dollar for the first time in a year, noting that in an environment where both the stock and bond markets are under pressure, the dollar is "the most prominent defensive asset." Changes in market expectations are also reflected in the interest rate path. With rising oil prices and increasing inflation risks, the narrative of "multiple rate cuts" that had dominated the market has quickly collapsed. The latest pricing shows that traders have completely erased expectations for rate cuts this year and have even begun to bet that the Federal Reserve may raise rates later this year, with the related probability rising to about 50%. Foreign exchange traders point out that the Iran conflict and soaring energy prices have fundamentally impacted market expectations, not only ending the rate cut cycle but also accelerating the closure of dollar short positions, pushing the dollar into a new upward cycle ### 相关股票 - [Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UUP.US.md) - [Wtree Bbg Usd Bull (USDU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/USDU.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Compass Group to Switch Trading Currency to US Dollars](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279555174.md) - [VersaBank expands tokenized deposits with cross-border FX use case](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279476855.md) - [Nomura's Willcox: BoJ More Likely To Hike in April](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279776982.md) - [Market talk: Fed may 'leave rates alone' in 2026 despite signaling cut](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279675454.md) - [How to save fuel as gas prices rise, according to experts](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279813762.md)