--- title: "Are interest rate cut expectations being \"wrongly punished\"? Federal Reserve officials speak to stabilize expectations, two board members say a rate cut is still possible within the year" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280000079.md" description: "As the Middle East conflict triggers market volatility, Federal Reserve officials step in to stabilize expectations, indicating that a rate cut may still be possible this year. Two board members, Waller and Bowman, pointed out that market expectations for rate cuts may be overly aggressive, despite recent market sentiment leaning hawkish. Bowman anticipates three rate cuts by the end of 2026, while Waller stated that he would also support a rate cut if the labor market remains weak. Overall, the Federal Reserve's policy path has not fundamentally changed, and a rate cut is still expected once this year" datetime: "2026-03-20T23:26:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280000079.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280000079.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280000079.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280000079.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280000079.md) # Are interest rate cut expectations being "wrongly punished"? Federal Reserve officials speak to stabilize expectations, two board members say a rate cut is still possible within the year According to Zhitong Finance APP, as the Middle East conflict triggers significant market volatility and a substantial adjustment in interest rate expectations, Federal Reserve officials are stepping in to stabilize expectations. Two Federal Reserve governors made it clear on Friday that they still expect a rate cut within the year, indicating that Wall Street's recent bets on abandoning rate cuts or even raising rates may be overly aggressive. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman spoke out on Friday, after the market had almost completely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in 2026. Meanwhile, another governor, Lisa D. Cook, also supported a rate cut and voted against the decision to maintain rates at this week's policy meeting, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point cut. In just three weeks, market expectations have dramatically reversed. Previously, traders widely anticipated multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but as the Middle East conflict drove up oil prices and inflation concerns intensified, the market began to discuss whether it would shift towards rate hikes. However, from the Federal Reserve's official stance, the policy path has not fundamentally changed. The updated dot plot still shows that the 19 policymakers overall expect one rate cut within the year. The latest statements from Waller and Bowman also confirm this. Bowman stated in an interview that considering the weakening labor market, she expects three rate cuts by the end of 2026. Waller, while relatively cautious, also leaves room for a rate cut. He pointed out that if the job market continues to be weak, he would again support a rate cut within the year. The recent "hawkish" sentiment in the market partly stems from remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. At a press conference this week, Powell emphasized the inflation risks posed by the Iran conflict, while discussions about the deterioration of the job market were relatively limited, repeatedly stressing the high uncertainty of the future path. This led the market to interpret it as a potential shift towards tighter policy. However, employment data is sending different signals. U.S. employment numbers decreased by 92,000 in February, and if future data continues this trend, it would indicate a significant weakening of the labor market. Some institutions expect that the seasonal pattern of weak employment in spring and summer may reappear, thereby raising the unemployment rate and ultimately forcing the Federal Reserve to shift towards rate cuts. In contrast, achieving a path of rate hikes would require multiple conditions to be met simultaneously, including maintaining the unemployment rate below 4.5%, core inflation rising to above 3.2% annually, and stability in policy matters. This scenario is more likely to occur in an environment of moderate and sustained rising oil prices, but currently, the probability of achieving this remains limited ### 相关股票 - [iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd (TLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TLT.US.md) - [iShares Barclays Short Treasury (SHV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHV.US.md) - [Pmco Enh Shrt Maturity (MINT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MINT.US.md) - [iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IEF.US.md) - [ISHRS Us Trsry Bd (GOVT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOVT.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [iShares Barclays MBS Fixed Rate Bd (MBB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MBB.US.md) - [Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/UUP.US.md) - [DoubleLine Asset-Backed Securities ETF (DABS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DABS.US.md) - [SPDR Intermed Term (SPIB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPIB.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [iShares Barclays 1-3 Yr Treasury (SHY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SHY.US.md) - [iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SGOV.US.md) - [Vanguard Long Term Bd (VCLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VCLT.US.md) - [iShares Government Money Market ETF (GMMF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GMMF.US.md) - [iShares Trust iShares 1-5 Year Invest Grade Corp Bond ETF (IGSB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IGSB.US.md) - [Vanguard Intermediate Term Bd (VCIT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VCIT.US.md) - [Texas Capital Government Mny Mkt ETF (MMKT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MMKT.US.md) - [iShares Core US Aggregate Bd (AGG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AGG.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [VictoryShares Pioneer Asst-Based Inc ETF (ABI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ABI.US.md) - [SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BIL.US.md) - [Schwab 5-10 Year Corp Bond ETF (SCHI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SCHI.US.md) - [Vanguard Short Term Bd (VCSH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VCSH.US.md) - [Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JAAA.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BND.US.md) - [Janus Henderson Asset-Backed Secs ETF (JABS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/JABS.US.md) - [iShares iBoxx Invt (LQD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/LQD.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [U.S. commercial paper market shrinks in week-Fed](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279827159.md) - [US March Philly Fed business index +18.1 vs +10.0 expected](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279788652.md) - [US proposes easing limits on cancer-causing gas used to clean medical devices](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279081984.md) - [Don’t count out rate cuts in 2026. 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