---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures narrow their gains as Iran denies talks with the U.S"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280162739.md"
description: "U.S. stock index futures narrowed their gains as Iran denied talks with the United States. On March 23, Trump stated that U.S.-Iran talks were progressing well, leading to a positive market reaction and an increase in stock index futures. However, Iranian officials denied any communication with the U.S., causing market sentiment to retreat. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices fell sharply, and expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike also changed, with the probability of a rate hike in October rising to 35%"
datetime: "2026-03-23T12:38:12.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280162739.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280162739.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280162739.md)
---

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# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures narrow their gains as Iran denies talks with the U.S

1.  On March 23 (Monday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures rose after Trump signaled a five-day ceasefire, but narrowed their gains after Iran denied it. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 1.76%, S&P 500 futures were up 1.71%, and Nasdaq futures were up 1.63%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260323/1774268501178422.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was up 1.33%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.12%, the French CAC 40 index was up 1.01%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 1.57%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260323/1774268460780877.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 6.65%, at $91.70 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 6.16%, at $99.86 per barrel.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260323/1774268473527733.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**Iran denies talks with the United States.** President Donald Trump stated that the United States and Iran had "very good, productive" talks over the past two days aimed at resolving hostilities in the Middle East, suggesting a potential easing of tensions. Trump posted on Truth Social that he had instructed the Department of Defense to delay any military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, awaiting the outcome of ongoing negotiations. However, Iranian officials reportedly refuted the US claims of progress in negotiations, denying any communication with Washington and describing the recent developments as a retreat by the United States. Iranian state media and diplomatic channels stated that they had no direct or indirect contact with Trump or US officials. Trump's post significantly altered market risk sentiment. Stock index futures soared, US Treasury yields plummeted, and oil prices fell. However, after Iran denied the negotiations, these market fluctuations eased.

**Dramatic return of Fed rate hike expectations: Oil price surge pushes October rate hike probability to 35%.** The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations have dramatically reversed, with short-term US Treasury yields detaching from their anchor amid rising oil prices. Current federal funds futures data shows that after the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the probability of a benchmark rate increase of at least 25 basis points is 35%. Just a month ago, the market was betting on a 35% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. The two-year US Treasury yield (US2Y) has returned above 3.9%, reaching its highest level since July. Previously in July, the front end of the US Treasury yield curve had seen a sharp decline due to weak employment data, initiating a steady downward trend that lasted seven months, and this decline has now been completely erased since the attack on Iran **Goldman Sachs significantly raises 2026 oil price forecast: Risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz continues to ferment, Brent crude expected at $85.** Due to extended disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and heightened structural concerns regarding global supply concentration, Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 oil price forecast, bullish on the oil and energy sectors. The bank has reinforced expectations that inflationary pressures will persist longer, potentially supporting commodity-related currencies while exacerbating market concerns about central bank policy direction. In its latest outlook, the bank currently assumes that oil transportation through this critical Middle Eastern chokepoint will operate at only 5% of normal levels for an extended period of up to six weeks. Based on these changes, Goldman Sachs has raised its average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 from the previous $77 per barrel to $85. The bank has also increased its WTI crude oil forecast from an earlier $72 per barrel to $79.

**UBS CEO warns: Energy prices likely to remain high, Middle East conflict may inject "inflationary pressure" into supply chains.** Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS Group, stated that as investors gradually digest the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global economy, energy prices may remain elevated. He pointed out that energy prices could stay high for the foreseeable future, thereby creating some inflationary pressure on supply chains. Influenced by U.S. President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen key shipping routes, which are crucial for global energy transportation, the market exhibited risk-averse sentiment on Monday, with both the stock market and U.S. Treasury bonds declining. Brent crude prices have risen over 80% this year and are currently trading around $112 per barrel. Ermotti noted that although the full impact of geopolitical conflicts will take time to digest, his clients have not made significant adjustments to their asset allocations.

## Individual Stock News

**WeRide (WRD.US) revenue surges 90% in 2025, setting a record, Robotaxi users soar over 900%.** On March 23, global leading autonomous driving technology company WeRide (WRD.US) released its unaudited financial report for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. Over the past year, the company's performance has been strong, with commercialization accelerating. In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 690 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 90%, setting a historical high; fourth-quarter revenue reached 314 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123%, breaking the record for the highest quarterly revenue since the company's establishment. The core business, Robotaxi, experienced explosive growth, with annual revenue of 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 209.6%; fourth-quarter revenue hit a new high, soaring to 50.6 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.4%, with domestic Robotaxi registered users growing over 900% year-on-year in a single quarter, reflecting a surge in market travel demand.

**NVIDIA (NVDA.US) partners with Emerald AI to create "Flexible AI Factory."** At the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston on March 23, 2026, global computing giant NVIDIA and startup Emerald AI officially announced a milestone strategic partnership. Together with six leading energy companies, they launched the concept of a "Flexible AI Factory" based on NVIDIA's latest Vera Rubin DSX architecture The core of this collaboration lies in utilizing Emerald AI's Conductor intelligent platform, transforming data centers from mere consumers of the power grid into "grid assets" capable of real-time power adjustment and even reverse power delivery.

**STMicroelectronics (STM.US) partners with Hua Hong to locally deliver STM32, opening a new chapter in the domestic MCU supply chain.** European semiconductor giant STMicroelectronics announced on Monday that it has partnered with Chinese chip manufacturing giant Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) to begin delivering its STM32 wafers to Chinese customers. STMicroelectronics stated that the first batch of these microcontrollers (MCUs) has been fully produced in China, and a new series of STM32 MCU products is planned for large-scale production locally this year.

**AI computing power demand continues to surge! South Korea's "AI Squid Game" is in full swing, igniting demand for 10,000 AMD (AMD.US) AI chips.** South Korean AI startup Upstage is negotiating with AMD, a leader in high-performance chips for PCs and data centers from the United States, to purchase its latest 10,000 AI accelerators. This move is a significant part of its efforts to introduce larger-scale AI computing power infrastructure into the South Korean market. The purchase of 10,000 AMD AI chips, along with AMD's recent major collaborations with tech leaders such as Tianhong Technology (CLS.US) and HPE (HPE.US), highlights the growing market recognition of AMD's AI computing solutions, which are expected to continue encroaching on NVIDIA's (NVDA.US) market share of up to 90% in the trillion-dollar AI core computing cluster sector.

**A sign of the times? Costco (COST.US) tests independent gas stations, a key move for the retail giant into the energy sector.** Costco plans to open its first independent gas station in Mission Viejo, California, in June. The station will be located at the former site of a BED BATH & BEYOND store and will feature 40 fueling positions, making it Costco's largest fuel facility to date. Like all Costco gas stations, this one will be open only to members, with operating hours set from 5 AM to 10 PM daily, and it will not have an attached convenience store. The retail giant is also planning a second independent gas station in the Kalihi area of Honolulu, expected to be operational by 2027. Analysts believe that testing independent gas stations is a direct response to Costco's long-standing issues with parking saturation and fuel queue pain points, and it is seen as an interesting stress test of member loyalty in scenarios away from stores.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. January construction spending

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