--- title: "HuaLong Securities: Under geopolitical conflicts, the Federal Reserve turns hawkish, and non-ferrous metals are under pressure" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280242874.md" description: "HuaLong Securities released a research report indicating that the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 0% on March 18, in line with market expectations. Geopolitical conflicts have led to rising inflation expectations, putting pressure on economic growth. In the short term, gold volatility is increasing, and demand for industrial metals is facing challenges. It is recommended to pay attention to leading gold companies with scale advantages, such as Zijin Mining, SD-GOLD, and ZHONGJIN GOLD. The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals suggest limited room for future interest rate cuts, and rising energy prices will continue to impact inflation and gold prices" datetime: "2026-03-24T02:19:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280242874.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280242874.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280242874.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280242874.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280242874.md) # HuaLong Securities: Under geopolitical conflicts, the Federal Reserve turns hawkish, and non-ferrous metals are under pressure According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Hualong Securities released a research report stating that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, and a turning point is unlikely in the short term. Rising energy prices have heightened inflation expectations while also raising concerns about economic growth. In the short term, gold volatility is expected to increase, but the long-term logic remains unchanged, and the narrative around industrial metal demand is facing challenges. It is recommended to pay attention to leading gold companies with scale advantages and dividend characteristics, such as Zijin Mining (601899.SH), SD-GOLD (600547.SH), and ZHONGJIN GOLD (600489.SH). ## Hualong Securities' main viewpoints are as follows: **Event** On March 18 local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. This decision aligns with market expectations and marks the second consecutive time this year that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged. **Geopolitical conflict raises inflation expectations; under the dual targets of inflation and growth, the Federal Reserve's choice is further constrained, maintaining the current policy interest rate level** Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, factors such as disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a short-term rise in oil prices, directly pushing up U.S. energy costs and inflation expectations. The previously stable narrative of interest rate cuts has weakened, and this meeting raised the 2026 core PCE inflation expectation from 2.4% to 2.7%. At the same time, the GDP growth expectation for 2026 was raised from 2.3% to 2.4%. Under the dual pressures of resilient economic growth and sticky inflation, the Federal Reserve's forward guidance has limited maneuvering space. The dot plot conveyed a hawkish signal, suggesting that there may only be one 25 basis point rate cut throughout 2026. In the subsequent press conference, Chairman Powell emphasized that since the escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East on February 28, which triggered sharp fluctuations in oil prices, the rebound in energy prices will push up inflation; however, the scope and duration of its impact remain uncertain. **Under the expectation of a hawkish Federal Reserve, gold faces short-term volatility, while industrial metal expectations are under pressure** After energy prices raised inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift has put pressure on gold in the short term, causing its safe-haven properties to weaken, and the secondary strengthening of the dollar has also strongly suppressed gold prices. However, in the long term, the concerns over long-cycle sovereign credit risks have not changed. Industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are facing dual pressures from rising costs and weakening demand. In the previous market cycle, copper and aluminum benefited from tightening supply and warming demand expectations, but against the backdrop of escalating conflicts, rising energy costs and expectations of weakening future economic performance have challenged the logic of industrial metals, facing downward pressure. **Risk Warning:** Further escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict; normalization of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; setbacks in U.S. economic recovery; risks of changes in the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace; data citation risks ### 相关股票 - [VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDX.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (RING.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/RING.US.md) - [SD-GOLD (600547.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600547.CN.md) - [VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GDXJ.US.md) - [ZHONGJIN GOLD (600489.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/600489.CN.md) - [Zijin Mining (601899.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/601899.CN.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Heliostar Introduces Goldstrike Project and Updated Mineral Resource | HSTXF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280298750.md) - [Canada's Orla Mining beats Q4 adjusted EPS expectations on production growth](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279853070.md) - [Zijin Gold International Company Limited(SEHK:2259) added to FTSE All-World Index](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280098488.md) - [FNY Investment Advisers LLC Reduces Stock Position in Perpetua Resources Corp. $PPTA](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280044903.md) - [Four Nines Gold Raises $760,000 in First Tranche to Advance Hayden Hill Project](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280258261.md)