--- title: "Long-term interest rates approach a critical warning line! The 30-year U.S. Treasury hits 5%, and stagflation risks rise again" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280377236.md" description: "U.S. long-term interest rates are rising rapidly, with the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5%, signaling new risks. Analysts point out that this round of yield increases reflects rising inflation expectations and pressures from slowing economic growth, which may adversely affect the stock market and the overall economy. High oil prices and slowing economic growth have led to a sell-off in the bond market, prompting a reassessment of the inflation trajectory and concerns about potential changes in Federal Reserve policy, increasing the risk of economic downturn" datetime: "2026-03-24T22:16:54.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280377236.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280377236.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280377236.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280377236.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280377236.md) # Long-term interest rates approach a critical warning line! The 30-year U.S. Treasury hits 5%, and stagflation risks rise again U.S. long-term interest rates are rising rapidly, sending new risk signals to the market. Analysts point out that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching the 5% mark, reflecting the combined pressures of rising inflation expectations and weakening growth prospects, which may adversely affect the stock market and the overall economy. According to data obtained by Zhitong Finance APP, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield once rose to nearly 4.98%, close to the critical level of 5%. This rate is not only an important benchmark for long-term financing costs but is also seen as a "barometer" of market confidence in future economic conditions. Some institutions have noted that, unlike last year, this round of rising yields is not driven by strong economic performance but rather reflects a repricing of inflation risks. The core factor driving the rise in interest rates is the gradual emergence of a stagflation environment. On one hand, international oil prices remain close to $100 per barrel, pushing up energy and transportation costs; on the other hand, U.S. economic growth is clearly slowing. The latest revised data shows that the annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 is only 0.7%, far below previous expectations. Against this backdrop, the bond market has not strengthened due to economic weakness; instead, it has seen sell-offs, indicating that inflation risks have overshadowed growth concerns. Market participants point out that when long-term interest rates rise due to inflation risks rather than being driven by economic expansion, the impact on the stock market and consumption is more pronounced. Rising interest rates not only increase corporate financing costs but also directly affect household mortgage and auto loan burdens, thereby suppressing consumer demand. At the same time, the bond market is experiencing a "full curve sell-off," with yields on short-term Treasury bonds to long-term bonds generally rising, indicating that the market is reassessing the inflation trajectory as a whole. Analysts believe that the impact of oil prices is gradually being transmitted through diesel, fertilizers, food, and transportation costs, which may ultimately push up core inflation levels. In this environment, the market is beginning to worry that the Federal Reserve's policy path may change. If inflation remains high, monetary policy may be forced to maintain a tightening stance or even shift back to raising interest rates, which would further increase the risk of economic downturn. Some strategists warn that under the combination of "high inflation + low growth," there is a possibility that the U.S. economy could fall into recession. In terms of the stock market, although the overall performance has remained resilient since the outbreak of conflict, major indices have significantly retreated from historical highs, gradually approaching the technical correction range. Internal market volatility has intensified, and investors remain highly vigilant about energy shocks, rising interest rates, and uncertainties regarding economic prospects. Additionally, several institutions have pointed out that even if geopolitical conflicts eventually ease, energy prices are unlikely to quickly return to pre-war levels, and the world may enter a new normal of "higher costs." 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