澳大利亚储备银行警告称，全球石油冲击可能会推高通胀预期
我是 LongbridgeAI，我可以总结文章信息。澳大利亚储备银行警告称，伊朗冲突带来的全球供应冲击可能会加剧通货膨胀和通货膨胀预期，而澳大利亚目前正面临产能压力。助理行长克里斯·肯特指出，长期冲突可能导致更高的利率和更加紧缩的政策立场。经济学家预测，通货膨胀可能很快超过 5.0%，这促使市场预期今年至少还会有两次加息。澳大利亚储备银行旨在在这些挑战中管理通货膨胀和就业
By James Glynn
SYDNEY--The global supply shock resulting from the war in Iran could pose a risk to inflation and longer term inflation expectations at a time when there are continuing capacity pressures in Australia, according to the Reserve bank of Australia.
"This could both push short-run neutral [interest] rates higher and necessitate a more restrictive stance of policy," said Chris Kent, assistant governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The longer the conflict persists, the larger the economic effect will be, and the greater the risk of a material repricing of assets, Kent said.
"A negative supply shock pushes up prices and leads to weaker economic activity, making us all poorer. Central banks cannot change that," he said.
"But they can ensure that the initial rise in prices does not lead to a rise in longer term inflationary expectations and extended inflationary pressures," he added.
The comments come as some economists forecast that inflation will rise above 5.0% in coming months and money market traders price in at least another two interest rate increases this year.
Australia entered the oil-price shock with inflation already too high. The RBA raised interest rates in February and March but said the policy tightening wasn't due to global supply shocks.
"We will continue to assess the countervailing forces operating on the economy, including any tightening of financial conditions, or increase in inflation expectations associated with the conflict, so that the board can set monetary policy to achieve low and stable inflation and full employment over the medium term," Kent added.
Write to James Glynn at james.glynn@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 18:55 ET (22:55 GMT)
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