---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline as the U.S. Department of Defense Prepares for the \"Decisive Battle\" in the Iran War"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280619127.md"
description: "U.S. stock index futures all fell, with Dow futures down 0.58%, S&P 500 futures down 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.77%. Major European stock indices also generally declined. The U.S. Department of Defense is developing military plans for a possible war with Iran, including the use of ground troops and large-scale bombing. The Iranian ambassador to Japan stated that the U.S. has no right to unilaterally impose a peace plan, and the signals from both sides regarding negotiations are contradictory, with regional tensions showing no signs of easing"
datetime: "2026-03-26T11:21:47.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280619127.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280619127.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280619127.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280619127.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280619127.md)


# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline as the U.S. Department of Defense Prepares for the "Decisive Battle" in the Iran War

1.  As of March 26th (Thursday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.58%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.77%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260326/1774523444539436.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 1.06%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 1.04%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.72%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 1.10%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260326/1774523430575976.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 3.17%, priced at $93.18 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 3.26%, priced at $100.43 per barrel.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260326/1774523415902037.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**US Officials: The US Department of Defense is preparing for a "major showdown" with Iran.** According to reports, two US officials and two informed sources revealed that the US Department of Defense is developing military plans for a "lethal strike" against Iran, which may include the use of ground troops and large-scale bombing operations. Officials familiar with internal discussions described that Trump could choose from four main "lethal strike" options: ① Invade or blockade Khark Island. ② Invade Larak Island, which helps Iran strengthen its control over the Strait of Hormuz. ③ Occupy strategically significant Abu Musa Island and two smaller islands located near the western entrance of the strait. ④ Intercept or seize ships carrying Iranian crude oil at the eastern exit of the Strait of Hormuz. The US military is also preparing plans for ground operations deep into Iran, aimed at controlling the enriched uranium buried within nuclear facilities.

**Iran's Ambassador to Japan takes a hard stance: The US has no right to unilaterally impose a peace plan.** Iran's Ambassador to Japan, Peyman Saadat, clearly stated on Thursday that the US cannot unilaterally impose a peace plan on Iran. Currently, the negotiation signals released by both the US and Iran are contradictory, and there are still no clear signs of an end to regional hostilities. "He cannot throw out a peace plan and claim, 'I will enforce it,'" Saadat's remarks in Tokyo directly pointed to US President Trump, "Unilateral imposition is absolutely unacceptable." Although Iran has publicly rejected the US's proposal for peace talks and has put forward its own new conditions for ending the conflict, the White House still insists that US-Iran peace negotiations are ongoing. "The aggressor can never unilaterally decide or concoct a plan," Saadat emphasized after meeting with Japanese pro-Iran parliamentary members, "The final decision-making power is not with the US, but with Iran." **Although the flames of war can be extinguished, the aftershocks are hard to calm! Former Goldman Sachs CEO warns investors not to be overly optimistic about the Middle East situation.** Lloyd Blankfein, Senior Chairman and former CEO of Goldman Sachs, recently issued a warning that even if the Iran conflict is "resolved tomorrow," the damage caused will "continue to exist," urging investors to prioritize emergency plans amid the turmoil. On Wednesday, Blankfein stated in an interview that some market participants may be overly optimistic about this conflict. He also mentioned that betting on "everything will eventually calm down" and asserting "the conflict will never be resolved" are both equally dangerous trading mindsets. Regarding the Middle East conflict, he said: "Everyone knows that even if the flames of war cease tomorrow, the severe damage to infrastructure will continue to pressure the market for a longer time. Moreover, there are currently no signs that the conflict will see a turnaround in the short term."

**Not just energy, AI will also trigger inflation! Global infrastructure asset management giant IFM: Huge expenditures will cause an "inflation pulse," and the impact may last for decades.** David Neal, CEO of global infrastructure fund management company IFM Investors, stated that massive spending on artificial intelligence and global energy transition could create inflationary pressures in the coming decades. Neal said: "Investors should pay more attention to inflation issues, not just because of soaring energy prices." He noted that while the recent surge in energy prices is a "wake-up call," there are other structural pressures at play. He said: "A large amount of capital is flowing into areas like artificial intelligence and energy transition. This itself is an inflation pulse, and this trend will continue for decades."

**Morgan Stanley sounds the "bull trap" alarm: The market underestimates the negative impact of the Middle East war on the economy, and the dollar's rally is hard to sustain.** Morgan Stanley stated that as the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Europe narrows, and the Middle East war suppresses economic growth, the dollar will weaken. Since the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, the dollar has strengthened, benefiting from its status as a safe-haven currency and the currency of the world's largest energy producer. Since the outbreak of the war, an index measuring the dollar's exchange rate has risen by 2%, reaching its highest level since December of last year on Monday. Meanwhile, the euro and yen have fallen more than 2% during the war, as both countries rely on energy supplies from the Middle East.

## Individual Stock News

**Record investment banking income fails to offset credit 'missteps,' Jefferies (JEF.US) Q1 performance falls short of expectations, stock price down 36% this year.** Jefferies Financial Group reported earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations due to losses from credit investment missteps dragging down overall performance. Although the investment banking business achieved the strongest first-quarter record ever, earnings per share of 70 cents were still below analysts' expectations of 87 cents. The performance included a $17 million loss related to two recent credit risk events—Market Financial Solutions and First Brands Group. Jefferies stated in a release that revenue grew 26% year-over-year to $2.017 billion, and net profit increased 22% year-over-year to $155.7 million. The performance benefited from a 45% surge in investment banking revenue, with advisory business revenue climbing due to "increased transaction volume across multiple sectors." **Pony.ai (PONY.US) expects Robotaxi revenue to double in 2025, with profitability in dual cities, and plans to accelerate deployment in over 20 cities domestically and internationally by 2026.** Pony.ai's total revenue in 2025 is projected to reach 629 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, achieving growth for four consecutive years. The financial report forecasts that by the end of 2026, the Robotaxi fleet will exceed 3,000 vehicles and will be deployed in over 20 cities both domestically and internationally. The Robotaxi business is entering a period of explosive growth. In 2025, the annual revenue from the Robotaxi business is expected to reach 116 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129%, with passenger fare revenue increasing nearly 400% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter, Robotaxi business revenue was 46.6 million yuan, accounting for about 40% of the annual Robotaxi business revenue, with passenger fare revenue increasing over 500% year-on-year.

**Middle East conflict spreads to express delivery: The United States Postal Service plans to impose an 8% surcharge on some packages to cope with soaring oil prices.** The United States Postal Service announced on Wednesday that it is seeking to impose a temporary fuel surcharge of 8% on packages and express mail to address rising transportation costs (including oil price increases due to the Iran war). This adjustment applies to Priority Express Mail, Priority Mail, USPS Ground Services, and select packages. Regular stamps and other mail services are not affected. The United States Postal Service stated on its website that if approved by the Postal Regulatory Commission, the surcharge will take effect on April 26 and will last until January 17, 2027. FedEx (FDX.US) and United Parcel Service (UPS.US), two major package delivery companies, have imposed fuel surcharges on packages for years. Oil prices have risen over 40% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

**Google (GOOGL.US) compression technology triggers a "quake" in storage chips, analysts invoke Jevons Paradox: Don't panic, demand will only increase.** Concerns about demand were sparked by Google researchers promoting a new compression technology, leading to a significant drop in the stock prices of computer memory and storage product companies, but this impact may only be a short-term disturbance rather than a survival threat. On the Korean exchange, AI application key storage chip manufacturer SK Hynix fell by as much as 6%. In the Tokyo market, flash memory manufacturer Kioxia Holdings dropped by 4.4%. Previously, Micron Technology and SanDisk also recorded similar declines in the New York market on Wednesday. Google stated that its new TurboQuant technology could significantly reduce memory usage for large language models and vector search engines. However, bullish investors optimistic about the current strong upward trend in global storage chips believe that efficiency improvements will increase rather than decrease demand—this ancient theory is known as "Jevons Paradox."

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

At 20:30 Beijing time: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 21.

The next day at 04:30 Beijing time: U.S. Federal Reserve balance sheet as of March 25.

The next day at 04:00 Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will speak on financial stability

### 相关股票

- [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md)
- [NASDAQ 100 Technology Sector Market-Cap Weighted Index (.NDXTMC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.NDXTMC.US.md)
- [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md)
- [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.NDX.US.md)
- [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md)
- [SPDR Djia (DIA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/DIA.US.md)
- [VG S&P 500 (VOO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VOO.US.md)
- [iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/IVV.US.md)
- [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPY.US.md)

## 相关资讯与研究

- [Hedge funds hammered by market turbulence triggered by Iran conflict](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281558737.md)
- [S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q1 2026](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281555757.md)
- [NATO’s Rutte schedules Washington trip as Trump reevaluates alliance](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281431638.md)
- [Why Is the SPY ETF Up Today, 4/1/2026?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281428290.md)
- [Hedge funds face worst monthly drawdown in over four years, Goldman Sachs tells clients](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281433591.md)