<div id="readability-page-1"><div id="parent_top_div">Rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia have begun to ripple through the metals space, pushing up steel prices and improving spreads for producers, even as risks emerge for gas-dependent operations and exports, according to a report by Axis Securities. Nifty Metal fell as much as 1.6 per cent in trade to day's low at 11,156.7. At 10:49 PM, 14 out of 15 stocks on the index traded with losses. The brokerage noted that hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have risen about 14 per cent quarter-to-date (Q-T-D), while rebar prices are up 7 per cent. In contrast, key input costs such as coking coal and iron ore have increased by only around 2 per cent, leading to an expansion in spot spreads for steelmakers. In Q4FY26 so far, average HRC prices are higher by about 11 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). This, combined with relatively stable input costs—particularly coking coal, which saw a lagged impact from earlier increases—should support profitability for steel mills on a consumption basis, believe analysts. <h2> Gas-linked steelmakers face pressure</h2> The ongoing conflict in West Asia is expected to have a more pronounced impact on gas-based steel production. Disruptions in LNG, propane, and LPG supplies—linked to shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz—are weighing on Direct Reduced Iron (DRI)-based plants and downstream processes such as galvanising, noted the brokerage. Further, secondary steel producers and smaller players reliant on induction furnaces and gas inputs are likely to face the most pressure, given limited pricing power and access to alternative supplies. According to Axis Securities, among large players, JSW Steel is likely to see operational disruptions at certain downstream facilities, while ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS) India faces risks due to its significant dependence on gas-based DRI technology. Jindal Stainless has already indicated lower capacity utilisation due to its reliance on industrial gases. At 10:49 AM, Jindal Stainless was trading 3.24 per cent lower, and JSW Steel fell 1.11 per cent. READ | HCLTech, TCS, Wipro: Nifty IT gains 1% in weak market as rupee falls <h2> Integrated players relatively insulated</h2> Integrated steelmakers such as Tata Steel and SAIL are expected to remain relatively insulated on the upstream side, though downstream operations may see some impact from rising energy costs. Tata Steel’s European operations could face higher gas costs, although supportive policy measures in the UK—including tighter import quotas and higher tariffs from July 2026—may provide margin support. Aluminium producers such as Hindalco and National Aluminium Company (Nalco) may see some cost pressures, but strong aluminium prices are expected to offset the impact to an extent. At 10:49 AM, Tata Steel shares fell 1.11 per cent, Steel Authority of India (SAIL) slipped 1.6 per cent, Hindalco was down 0.06 per cent and Nalco was down 0.78 per cent <h2> China export curbs, Hormuz disruptions shift trade flows</h2> China’s steel exports declined 8.1 per cent year-on-year to 15.6 million tonnes in January–February 2026, following new export control measures. Domestic demand in China remains weak, with production falling to multi-year lows. The Strait of Hormuz disruption could further impact China’s exports to West Asia, a key market accounting for around 14 per cent of its shipments. This may lead to diversion of excess supply to markets such as India and Southeast Asia, which will be a key monitorable for domestic players. <h2> India demand strong, exports at risk</h2> India’s steel production remains robust, rising 11.2 per cent year-on-year to 153.6 million tonnes in April 2025–February 2026. However, exports could face pressure amid global trade disruptions and shifting supply dynamics. While domestic HRC prices have risen, they continue to trade at a discount to landed Chinese prices, supported by safeguard duties and currency depreciation. READ | HEG, Graphite India gain upto 14% in weak market; what's driving GE stocks? <h2> Outlook</h2> Axis Securities expects near-term volatility in the metals space due to geopolitical uncertainties, input cost fluctuations, and export risks. However, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, supported by strong domestic demand and supply-side constraints. Despite relatively elevated valuations, any correction in metal stocks could offer buying opportunities. “We remain constructive on the metals sector and recommend a ‘buy on dips’ strategy, as demand drivers and supply constraints continue to provide support,” analysts said. Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by the analysts/brokerage are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.</div></div>

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