<h2><strong>引言</strong></h2>
<p>TradingKey - 随着铜在全球宏观经济叙事和商品市场中变得越来越重要，铜从一种周期性工业金属转变为与电气化、人工智能和基础设施韧性相关的战略资源的过程已经发生。尽管资金在工业商品之间不断轮动，我们认为铜是进入 2026 年时最佳的投资机会之一，原因在于供应减少、需求持续以及整体投资者对铜的结构性看涨情绪。</p>
<h2><strong>背景：从周期性金属到战略资产</strong></h2>
<p>当前铜价的上涨是由于其他因素，而非一般经济的短期波动。尽管经历了多次极端价格波动，铜价仍处于历史高位附近。这表明铜市场的参与者开始将长期的供需失衡吸收到他们的交易头寸中。</p>
<p>随着机构改变其资金流动模式，例如，他们多年来一直将资金投入贵金属（如黄金和白银），现在资金开始从贵金属流向铜，因为铜市场背后的基本故事与全球经济的需求更加紧密相关，而不仅仅是防御性布局。这一转变表明机构投资者对总回报资产的看法正在演变（假设他们将 “避险” 作为回报的风格定义）：即将 “增长导向” 的商品视为与 “避险” 商品分开的类别。</p>
<h2><strong>结构性供应短缺成为主要驱动因素</strong></h2>
<p>铜行业前景的最重要驱动因素是供需之间持续扩大且日益增长的差距。根据行业估计，随着矿山中断、矿石品位下降和有限的新项目管道，精炼铜市场将在 2026 年开始收紧。</p>
<p>例如，即使在（如果）有增长的情况下，这种增长也在稳步放缓。由于限制上游生产和冶炼盈利能力的问题，精炼量预计将显著放缓。TC 和 RC 的崩溃（在此定义为 T/C 和 R/C，接近于零）是全球浓缩物供应持续收紧的证据。</p>
<p>展望未来：结构性问题的性质随着时间的推移变得愈加明显；新铜矿的开发时间表非常漫长，资本密集度越来越高，监管约束也在逐渐增加。因此，即使铜价在较长时间内显著高于当前水平，也不太可能在短期内释放出足够的新铜供应，从而维持当前的短缺状况。</p>
<h2><strong>需求扩张正被人工智能和电气化重新定义</strong></h2>
<p>围绕不同结构形式（例如建筑和制造）的供需动态不再频繁或恒定；它们已转变为受到电气化和通过人工智能技术的数字基础设施等额外因素的影响。利用人工智能技术的设施主要由数据存储地点（即数据中心）组成。因此，这类设施将占据大量新增铜需求，并且主要由铜基电气网络、先进的机械冷却/处理技术以及稳定的可用能源（即铜密集型）组成。此外，人工智能技术还将创造出额外的基荷铜需求，这些需求不易受到短期经济波动的影响。</p>
<p>此外，全球范围内大规模电气化的趋势依然存在。发电（即电网）、可再生能源（即太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机）、电动汽车（即电动汽车充电站）或工业自动化将继续需要大量铜。由于中国将继续消费全球铜消费的最大份额，而发达国家也在迅速升级各自的电力系统以符合可再生能源的相关法规，因此整体全球需求增长似乎具有地理多样性和结构性嵌入性。</p>
<h2><strong>机构轮动信号市场领导力的转变</strong></h2>
<p>机构资本在商品之间的轮动是另一个关键趋势。尽管黄金经历了大幅上涨，许多投资者正在将资本重新分配到铜上，受益于供应限制，而非货币政策。</p>
<p>投资者在配置铜时也采取了更长期的视角。铜的未来价格表现与发展中经济体、新技术来源和基础设施发展关系更为密切，而不仅仅是作为对抗通货膨胀或地缘政治风险的对冲。因此，寻求接触长期增长主题的资本被吸引到铜市场。</p>
<p>价格走势支持这一转变。即使在调整期之后，铜仍然保持强劲的技术指标，包括更高的低点和持续的支撑区域，表明铜的积累而非分配。</p>
<h2><strong>风险与分歧点</strong></h2>
<p>中国经济可能导致对铜的需求低于预期；这也将推迟新紧缩周期的时机。</p>
<p>此外，目前物理市场与金融市场在铜的定位之间存在脱节。尽管存在供应挑战，利率、汇率和投机等宏观经济变量可能导致铜价非常波动。</p>
<p>在供应方面，新项目通常会获得批准，或者提取过程中的技术进步将有助于比预期更早地消除一些供应限制；然而，目前没有迹象表明这些情况会在短期内发生。</p>
<h2><strong>市场影响：投资者应如何布局</strong></h2>
<p>对于那些投资铜的投资者来说，现在正从主要的周期性交易转变为更具结构性的配置主题。关键在于将你的投资暴露与推动这一市场的基本催化因素对齐。</p>
<p>在确定哪些铜生产商最有可能从持续的铜短缺中受益时，寻找那些拥有高质量资产、低成本结构和长期储备的生产商。此外，未来有供应增长潜力的公司——特别是那些正在进行大规模项目的公司——将为投资者提供利用价格上涨的杠杆；尽管这样的投资也会面临更大的执行风险。</p>
<p>除了股票，其他形式的铜投资需要仔细监测 TC/RC 等指标以及其他长期供应合同和库存，这可能提供比现货价格更具可操作性的信息。</p>
<p>最后，铜将在全球经济中扮演越来越重要的角色。随着电气化的加速和人工智能基础设施的扩展，铜可能在能源转型和数字经济中变得至关重要。因此，目前的铜周期可能不会最终以峰值价格为特征；相反，它可能代表铜的长期结构性重新定价的非常早期阶段。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

南方铜业

有色金属

<p>铜市场正在演变，从周期性的工业金属转变为与电气化和人工智能相关的战略资源。预计到 2026 年，由于矿山中断和监管限制，供应短缺将加剧，而需求则受到人工智能技术和大规模电气化的推动。机构投资者正在将资本从贵金属重新配置到铜，认为铜是一种长期增长资产，而非避险资产。这一转变表明市场对铜持乐观态度，尽管中国经济可能存在风险，但强劲的技术指标仍在支持这一趋势</p>

<h2><strong>Introduction</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>引言</strong></h2>
</div><p>TradingKey - As copper becomes more of a focal point in the global macroeconomic narrative and commodities market, the transition from copper as a cyclical industrial metal to being viewed as a strategic resource tied to electrification, artificial intelligence, and infrastructure resilience has occurred. While money continues to rotate among industrial commodities, we believe copper is one of the best investment opportunities heading into 2026 due to decrease in supply, sustained demand, and overall investor sentiment on copper being bullish in a structural sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 随着铜在全球宏观经济叙事和商品市场中变得越来越重要，铜从一种周期性工业金属转变为与电气化、人工智能和基础设施韧性相关的战略资源的过程已经发生。尽管资金在工业商品之间不断轮动，我们认为铜是进入 2026 年时最佳的投资机会之一，原因在于供应减少、需求持续以及整体投资者对铜的结构性看涨情绪。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Background: From Cyclical Metal to Strategic Asset</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>背景：从周期性金属到战略资产</strong></h2>
</div><p>The current rise in copper prices is due to factors other than short-term moves in the general economy. The price of copper has been at or near all-time high levels despite numerous instances of extreme price movement. This is suggesting that participants in the copper market are starting to absorb a longer-term supply/demand imbalance into their trading positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前铜价的上涨是由于其他因素，而非一般经济的短期波动。尽管经历了多次极端价格波动，铜价仍处于历史高位附近。这表明铜市场的参与者开始将长期的供需失衡吸收到他们的交易头寸中。</p>
</div><p>As Institutions change their flow patterns, an example of that is how they have been placing money into precious metals (such as gold and silver) for many years and now money is starting to flow from precious metals into copper, because the underlying story behind the copper market is being more closely matched up to how much the world's economy is needing as opposed to merely defensive positioning. This shift is an indication of an evolution of how Institutional investors are viewing total return assets (assuming they use &#34;safe-haven&#34; as the style definition of return): i.e., view &#34;growth-oriented&#34; commodities as separate from &#34;safe-haven&#34; commodity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着机构改变其资金流动模式，例如，他们多年来一直将资金投入贵金属（如黄金和白银），现在资金开始从贵金属流向铜，因为铜市场背后的基本故事与全球经济的需求更加紧密相关，而不仅仅是防御性布局。这一转变表明机构投资者对总回报资产的看法正在演变（假设他们将 “避险” 作为回报的风格定义）：即将 “增长导向” 的商品视为与 “避险” 商品分开的类别。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Structural Supply Deficits Are Becoming the Dominant Driver</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>结构性供应短缺成为主要驱动因素</strong></h2>
</div><p>The most significant driver behind the copper industry’s outlook is a continuing and growing gap in supply and demand. Based on industry estimates, a transition to a tightening of the refined copper market will occur by 2026 as mine disruption, decreasing ore grades, and limited additional project pipelines restrict refined copper output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜行业前景的最重要驱动因素是供需之间持续扩大且日益增长的差距。根据行业估计，随着矿山中断、矿石品位下降和有限的新项目管道，精炼铜市场将在 2026 年开始收紧。</p>
</div><p>As an example, even when (if) there’s growth, that growth has steadily slowed. Refining volume is projected to slow significantly due to issues limiting upstream production and smelter profitability. The collapse of (TC) and (RC) -here defined as T/Cs, R/Cs and are at approximately zero- is evidence of the continued tightening of concentrate supply globally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，即使在（如果）有增长的情况下，这种增长也在稳步放缓。由于限制上游生产和冶炼盈利能力的问题，精炼量预计将显著放缓。TC 和 RC 的崩溃（在此定义为 T/C 和 R/C，接近于零）是全球浓缩物供应持续收紧的证据。</p>
</div><p>Looking forward: the nature of the structural problem becomes increasingly evident over time; the timelines for development of new copper mines are very long, capital intensity increasingly high and regulatory constraints continue to gradually increase. Thus, even if copper prices remain significantly above current levels for an extended period it is unlikely to unlock enough new copper supply in the near term, thereby maintaining/don't wish to wait for the continuation of the current situation in terms of deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来：结构性问题的性质随着时间的推移变得愈加明显；新铜矿的开发时间表非常漫长，资本密集度越来越高，监管约束也在逐渐增加。因此，即使铜价在较长时间内显著高于当前水平，也不太可能在短期内释放出足够的新铜供应，从而维持当前的短缺状况。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Demand Expansion Is Being Redefined by AI and Electrification</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>需求扩张正被人工智能和电气化重新定义</strong></h2>
</div><p>Supply and demand dynamics that revolve around different forms of structure (e.g., construction and manufacturing) are no longer frequent or constant in nature; they have shifted to being influenced by additional factors such as electrification and digital infrastructure through AI technologies. Facilities utilizing AI technologies consist predominantly of data storage locations (i.e., data centres). Therefore, these types of facilities will account for substantial incremental copper demand and also consist of primarily copper-based electrical networks, state-of-the-art mechanical cooling/treatment technologies, and a consistent supply of available energy (i.e., copper-intensive). In addition, AI technologies will also create additional forms of baseload copper demand that are not vulnerable to short-term economic fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>围绕不同结构形式（例如建筑和制造）的供需动态不再频繁或恒定；它们已转变为受到电气化和通过人工智能技术的数字基础设施等额外因素的影响。利用人工智能技术的设施主要由数据存储地点（即数据中心）组成。因此，这类设施将占据大量新增铜需求，并且主要由铜基电气网络、先进的机械冷却/处理技术以及稳定的可用能源（即铜密集型）组成。此外，人工智能技术还将创造出额外的基荷铜需求，这些需求不易受到短期经济波动的影响。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, the trend toward mass electrification remains intact across the globe. Significant amounts of copper will continue to be required for power generation (i.e., power grid), renewable energy (i.e., solar panels and wind turbines), electric vehicles (i.e., EV charging stations), or industrial automation. Since China will continue to consume the largest share of global copper consumption, and as developed countries rapidly upgrade their respective electrical systems to comply with regulations regarding renewable energy, there appears to be both geographical diversification and structural embeddedness to overall global demand growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，全球范围内大规模电气化的趋势依然存在。发电（即电网）、可再生能源（即太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机）、电动汽车（即电动汽车充电站）或工业自动化将继续需要大量铜。由于中国将继续消费全球铜消费的最大份额，而发达国家也在迅速升级各自的电力系统以符合可再生能源的相关法规，因此整体全球需求增长似乎具有地理多样性和结构性嵌入性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Institutional Rotation Signals a Shift in Market Leadership</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>机构轮动信号市场领导力的转变</strong></h2>
</div><p>Institutional capital rotating through commodities is another key trend. While gold has experienced large upside, many investors are re-allocating their capital to copper, with benefits from supply constraints rather than monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>机构资本在商品之间的轮动是另一个关键趋势。尽管黄金经历了大幅上涨，许多投资者正在将资本重新分配到铜上，受益于供应限制，而非货币政策。</p>
</div><p>Investors are also taking a longer-term view when allocating to copper. Copper’s future price performance is much more associated with developing economies, new sources of technology, and infrastructure development as opposed to being primarily a hedge against inflation or geopolitical risk. As such, capital seeking exposure to longer-duration growth themes are attracted to copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在配置铜时也采取了更长期的视角。铜的未来价格表现与发展中经济体、新技术来源和基础设施发展关系更为密切，而不仅仅是作为对抗通货膨胀或地缘政治风险的对冲。因此，寻求接触长期增长主题的资本被吸引到铜市场。</p>
</div><p>The price action supports this transition. Even after periods of correction, copper has continued to have strong technical indicators, including higher lows and continued support areas indicating the accumulation of copper rather than the distribution of copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格走势支持这一转变。即使在调整期之后，铜仍然保持强劲的技术指标，包括更高的低点和持续的支撑区域，表明铜的积累而非分配。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Risks and Points of Divergence</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>风险与分歧点</strong></h2>
</div><p>Chinese economy would lead to weaker demand for copper than anticipated; this would also push back the timing of a new tightening cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国经济可能导致对铜的需求低于预期；这也将推迟新紧缩周期的时机。</p>
</div><p>In addition, there is currently a disconnect between what physical markets are saying and how the financial markets position themselves around copper. Even though there are supply challenges, macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, and speculation can cause copper prices to be very volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，目前物理市场与金融市场在铜的定位之间存在脱节。尽管存在供应挑战，利率、汇率和投机等宏观经济变量可能导致铜价非常波动。</p>
</div><p>On the supply side, new projects are usually approved, or there have been technological advancements in the extraction process will help to remove some of these supply constraints sooner than expected; however, at this time, there are no indications that any of these scenarios will happen shortly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在供应方面，新项目通常会获得批准，或者提取过程中的技术进步将有助于比预期更早地消除一些供应限制；然而，目前没有迹象表明这些情况会在短期内发生。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Market Implications: How Investors Should Position</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市场影响：投资者应如何布局</strong></h2>
</div><p>For those investors that invest in copper, it is now transitioning from being primarily a cyclical trade to more of a structural allocation theme. The key will be to position your exposure to align with the underlying catalysts driving this market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些投资铜的投资者来说，现在正从主要的周期性交易转变为更具结构性的配置主题。关键在于将你的投资暴露与推动这一市场的基本催化因素对齐。</p>
</div><p>When determining which copper producers will be best positioned to benefit from continued copper deficits, look for producers that have high quality assets, low cost structures, and long-life reserves. Additionally, companies that have exposure to supply growth in the future—particularly those that are working on large-scale projects—will provide leverage for investors to capitalize on price increases; although, such investments will also have greater execution risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在确定哪些铜生产商最有可能从持续的铜短缺中受益时，寻找那些拥有高质量资产、低成本结构和长期储备的生产商。此外，未来有供应增长潜力的公司——特别是那些正在进行大规模项目的公司——将为投资者提供利用价格上涨的杠杆；尽管这样的投资也会面临更大的执行风险。</p>
</div><p>In addition to equities, other forms of copper investments require careful monitoring of indicators like TC/RC and other long-term supply contracts along with inventories, which may provide better actionable information than spot prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了股票，其他形式的铜投资需要仔细监测 TC/RC 等指标以及其他长期供应合同和库存，这可能提供比现货价格更具可操作性的信息。</p>
</div><p>Finally, copper will increasingly play an important role in the global economy. As electrification continues to accelerate and AI infrastructure expands, copper is likely to become critical to both the energy transition as well as to the digital economy. Therefore, the current copper cycle may not ultimately be characterized by peak price; instead, it may instead represent a very early phase of a prolonged structural re-pricing of copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，铜将在全球经济中扮演越来越重要的角色。随着电气化的加速和人工智能基础设施的扩展，铜可能在能源转型和数字经济中变得至关重要。因此，目前的铜周期可能不会最终以峰值价格为特征；相反，它可能代表铜的长期结构性重新定价的非常早期阶段。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Copper Outlook 2026: Supply Deficits, AI Demand, and Institutional Rotation Reshape the Bull Case

TradingKey

BCI Minerals Ltd

Antofagasta plc

iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF

美国铜指数基金 - Concierge Technologies

有色50

自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿

泰克资源

江西铜业

广发中证稀有金属ETF

Hudbay Minerals

德银基础金属 ETF - PowerShares

华夏中证细分有色金属产业主题ETF

铜矿 ETF - GlobalX

必和必拓

Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF

Sprott Copper Miners ETF

金属采矿 ETF - SPDR

力拓

有色龙头ETF

国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF

ERO Copper

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